中国省际贸易与区域经济增长研究:基于三种机制的理论与实证
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Abstract

The region is not only the combination of economic geography, but also the economy, industry, culture, science and technology gathering and human activities space, human production and life in the region along with the flow of resources and industrial structure changes. Regional economy, as the symbol of national economic development plays an indispensable role in the development of modern society. For a long time, the growth of China's regional economy has played a pivotal role in the development of the national economy. However, it has also created many problems and faced more challenges, such as the poor flow of production factors, the serious trade barriers, The border effect is obvious, regional policy and regional economic growth dislocation and other issues, in order to solve these shortcomings, to deal with the challenges of development, China in the“13th Five-Year Plan”proposed, we must adhere to coordinated development, focus on the formation of balanced development structure. It shows that China's regional economic growth has changed from the idea of unbalanced development to the emphasis on regional coordinated development at the national level. Based on the idea of sustainable development, elements can be freely accessible in and out of the market, and social and public resources are equalized among citizens The new pattern of coordinated development of inter-provincial trade, market and government. So, the question is in the new era to achieve inter-provincial trade and regional economic growth and coordinated development of the new pattern needs to do what? In the new theory of trade and the theory of new economic geography,due to the increase in the yield of differentiated products, the increase in local expenditure will attract different enterprises to lead to the existence of the domestic market spillover effect, so in addition to international trade, The impact of economic growth can not be ignored, this is the source of this study and the starting point. According to the“13th Five-Year Plan”, inter-provincial trade development should broaden the development space, in the market-oriented areas and backward trade industries to enhance the development potential. The development of the region by respect for the objective situation of the economy, industrial development of the objective stage of the law,to the actual situation to rationalize the development of regional policies to promote the inter-provincial trade market elements of the free flow.

Band on this, the study of this paper is mainly related to three issues:First, how to understand mechanism of the China's regional economic growth and inter-provincial trade; Second, understand the mathematical and empirical relationship of the Inter-provincial total trade and flow and regional economic growth; Third, how to promote Inter -provincial Trade Factor Flow and Regional Economic Growth. Only by solving these three problems can we provide academic support for the rational implementation and effective implementation of the regional policy of inter-provincial trade governance. The first question involves the discussion of the reasons for the formation of regional economic growth, in theory to expand, more fully take into account the regional policy of the factors; and then a problem related to regional economic growth and total trade, the mathematical relationship between the flow. It is explained that the variable data trade flow calculation and explanatory variable data standard setting, and finally need for the inter-provincial trade barriers and regional policy deficiencies, put forward the corresponding governance program.

This study constructs a theoretical analysis framework of“inter-provincial trade impact on regional economic growth”, and follows the logical path of“asking questions-constructing theoretical framework-mechanism analysisempirical test - countermeasure suggestion”Comprehensive and in-depth study of China's inter-provincial trade affected regional economic growth series of important issues. The full text of a total of eight chapters constitute:

The first chapter is the introduction, mainly to explain the background of this paper, to determine the purpose of research, research significance, clear the core concept of the article, combing domestic and foreign related research literature and a brief evaluation, the development of this research ideas and methods, and possible innovation and inadequacy. From the background of the research, the healthy development of inter-provincial trade has become an important way to realize regional economic growth in China. From the perspective of foreign studies, since the modern capitalism, Smith and Ricardo, the factors of competitive advantage, Vernon, Posner and other representatives of the“free trade theory”to Coase, North as the representative of the institutional advantages of the school and Marx, Engels,“trade protection theory”and other scholars, the opening of the trade market has been widely The study involves the increase of the scale of trade, the division of labor, the development and demise of the capitalist trade industry, the rationality of the existence of regional trade organizations and so on. It has attracted the attention of scholars. From the domestic research, China's trade and economic growth Most of the meaning of stay in the concept of international trade, advocated to participate in international trade to expand the scale of the relevant factors of technological progress, the accumulation of capital accumulation,the construction of regional policy system, such as heated and controversial. In short, the relevant research of domestic and foreign provide a new perspective for this analysis, the new analysis of this paper and research content to form guidelines. These studies not only laid a deep theoretical material and thought nourishment for the research of this paper, but also left a space for the study of this paper.

The second chapter is the relevant theoretical basis and literature review. This chapter first combs the theory of division of labor, the theory of dominance, the theory of regional economic growth and the theory of trade, which are closely related to the content of this paper, and put these theories as the theoretical basis and basic analytical tools. In the literature review, economic growth mechanism research, trade volume flow and regional economic growth research and trade boundary effect of the research were sorted out, and based on the third chapter, the fourth chapter of the comprehensive analysis of the framework has built a basic idea.

Chapter three is a general analysis of the theoretical framework. This paper tries to analyze the mechanism of interregional trade influence regional economic growth in a systematic and systematic way, and deconstruct the internal relationship between the realization of regional economic growth, the realization mechanism and the effect of the inter-provincial trade from the perspective of factor combination. The paper analyzes the historical evolution of the combination of trade elements and the latest progress of the combination of high-end elements, and then decomposes the trade dependence from the unified framework. The trade structure and the trade factor income are the important forms of regional economic growth The Capital accumulation mechanism is mainly to improve the savings rate and optimize the allocation of resources,improve capital utilization and capital inflows outside the province, the expected psychological guidance, these factors affect the distribution of inter-provincial trade, product structure, formed on the geographical and product categories on the different types of inter-provincial trade; technical conditions are mainly the division of labor professional development, the transformation of the technology industry, traditional trade to the background of modern trade transformation, so that the level of regional productivity continues to increase,inter-provincial trade relations increasingly complex, regional economic development The inter-provincial trade is achieved under the dual guidance of the government and the market, and the two complement each other to jointly guide the stable development of the inter-provincial trade. In the regional policy and the province of the province; based on the development of trade relations, the formation of the main business of trade activities, and through agglomeration, diffusion, resource allocation in three ways from the perspective of trade volume, traffic and portfolio of regional economic growth; Finally, the regional economic growth is the regional Policy to improve the effect of improving. Thus, the realization of the form, to achieve the mechanism to achieve the effect of the formation of closely linked between the unity of the whole, so that inter-provincial trade can be generated, evolution and development.

The fourth chapter is about the inter-provincial trade and regional economic growth mechanism of the empirical analysis, respectively, capital accu mulation, technological progress and regional policy as the transmission mechanism, to further explore the impact of inter-provincial trade on regional economic growth mechanism. First of all, from the perspective of capital accumulation mechanism, the capital accumulation mechanism of this paper mainly starts from the two dimensions of government investment and private investment. Among them, government investment is the main factor of regional economy, and private investment hinders regional economic growth. Second, from the technical spill mechanism, the contribution of inter-provincial import and export trade spillovers is significantly negative, which may be due to the diminishing returns from theproduction of homogeneous products, the duplication of trade between China's provinces, trade barriers, spillover mechanisms not smooth and homogeneous vicious competition, will lead to the disappearance of the domestic market spillover effect. The output of R&D spending in the Midwest cannot be reflected in the trade input activities of other provinces, or even the cost of inputs, as a factor hindering economic growth. Finally, from the perspective of regional policy mechanisms, the non-observable heterogeneity of regional policies is dealt with with the new economic geography general equilibrium framework. Whether the government faces the choice of efficiency or fair trade balance in the regional economic development, it creates the conditions for the improvement of the total factor productivity of the regional economy through the regional policy, makes its position in the regional trade higher and higher, but ignores the importance of the free flow of factors of production And the regional policy fragmentation of the regional economy will bring the negative impact. After the chapter on the basis of the mechanism of economic growth in trade-affected areas, the paper studies the strength of the influence of trade volume and traffic on economic growth in practical application.

The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis of the total trade volume and the regional economic growth. The theoretical and empirical analysis of the three mechanisms focuses on the analysis of the path of economic growth and the analysis of the intermediate process. The empirical emphasis on the total trade volume and traffic is An Analysis of the effect of Inter -provincial trade on economic growth. This paper analyzes the relationship between provincial trade volume and regional economic growth, and finds that the total inter-provincial trade has a significant positive impact on regional economic growth. The savings rate is the basis of physical capital investment. Supply capacity can promote regional economic growth; China's initial conditions of better provinces, regional economic growth rate is not high, explains the actual regional economic growth is surprising status. Further from the regional perspective, the eastern region of the savings into the regional economic growth capacity is strong, indicating that the eastern region of the savings into the growth mechanism is smooth, and the central and western regions this indicator is not significant; the central and western provinces of the regional trade of is greater than that in the eastern region; the provinces with better initial conditions in the western region are slower than those in the eastern provinces where the initial economic conditions are better.

Chapter six: Empirical Analysis of Trade Flow and Regional Economic Growth. Based on the 16-year panel data of 30 provinces in China, the use of tool variables to deal with inter-provincial trade flows and regional economic growth between the causal relationship between the establishment, including the inter-provincial trade flows, regional economic growth and border effects,regional policy and social factors of the cross -section and panel data regression model. It is found that the border effect of inter-provincial trade in our country shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing, and the interprovincial trade barriers are cured from the trend of border effect. China's regional policy in the early stages of the implementation of China's inter-provincial trade flow is positive, and promote the inter-provincial trade and economic development, but with the continuous introduction of regional policies, China's regional economic fragmentation continues to expand, Regional policy to reduce China's regional economic growth, and in the latter part of China's regional economic growth has a significant hindrance. Common dialects and ethnic groups as a natural link, is the bridge of trade and daily life communication, has a significant positive impact on economic development. The per capita GDP of the export provinces will hinder the economic growth of the provinces, the per capita GDP of the importing provinces,and the GDP of the import and export provinces will promote the provinces.This shows that for a long time, China's economic and social development has supported the population dividend, industrial transformation and upgrading of the inter-provincial trade and regional economic growth caused pressure.

The seventh chapter is the empirical analysis, combined with China's special regional development background and the characteristics of inter-provincial trade, inter-provincial trade by what factors affect the study, to find ways to improve China's inter-provincial trade, improve regional economic growth path and measures The This paper summarizes the historical characteristics of the historical evolution of China's inter-provincial trade, invokes the experiences and lessons of foreign trade governance, and puts forward suggestions for China's regional economic growth and inter-provincial trade, and puts forward the road ofcoordinated development of inter-provincial trade that adapts to China's national conditions.

Chapter eight is the summary of the full text and the prospect of future research. This paper summarizes and comments on the research of this paper,summarizes the basic conclusions drawn from this study, and makes a prospect of perfecting and developing the future research.

Based on the theoretical research, the article analyzes the economic growth mechanism of inter-provincial trade. At the same time, the author uses the inter-provincial trade volume, traffic and political data, economic and social data to carry out empirical test, analyzing the factors affecting the provincial trade and regional economic growth direction and strength.

Key words: Inter-provincial total trade and trade flow; economic growth mechanism; social factors; regional factors flow