东亚货币一体化的经济基础扩展性研究
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小结

首先,本书对货币一体化的历史进行了简要的梳理,并在梳理的基础上提出没有政治意向的纯货币一体化最终都要走向崩溃的边缘。那欧元的诞生是否有基础?它是否会走向灭亡?带着这些疑问,接下来便对欧元形成的思想文化基础、政治基础、经济基础和理论基础分别进行阐述。应该说,欧元区的诞生是欧洲人的欧洲意识和欧洲认同感产生的必然结果,但同样也是Mundell最优货币区理论催生的理论结晶。

其次,本章对有关最优货币区的贸易条件、经济趋同条件、金融趋同条件、经济冲击条件和成本收益条件进行综述,在综述之基础上对各最优货币区条件之间的交叉关系、替代关系、因果关系、最优货币区条件的内生性问题进行了分析。通过分析,在后面的实证研究中将取消经济冲击检验,去除产品多样化检验和财政转移支付检验。同时对最优货币区条件与《马约》条件、最优货币区与欧元区进行了比较,结合上一章有关最优货币区的定义,再次得出最优货币区只是理论上的一种极限,现实中只存在货币区。

最后,结合对东亚货币一体化的分析,以及中外对有关最优货币区理论运用于实践方面存在的不足之处和未来的改进方向提出了一些建议,为东亚日后走上货币一体化道路提供参考。同时,在前述有关货币一体化和经济基础的相关概念界定以及最优货币区相关理论评述之基础上,提出了本书的分析框架。框架首先通过对东亚的经济增长、金融一体化和贸易趋同进行检验,看东亚各国是否适宜组建货币区。由于以上检验均是单一条件检验,接下来便构建一套指标体系,对东亚是否适宜组建货币区进行综合性评价。在实证研究结束后,可以得知大部分国家已经适宜组建货币区,但还得解决目前比较流行的两种看法:其一是东亚的要素流动性较差,因而不适宜组建货币区。为了回答这个问题,本书将引用当遇到不对称性冲击时,弹性工资机制能使经济最终恢复均衡的结论进行论证。其二是东亚各国与欧元区相比,发展差距较大,发展不平衡性显著,因而不适宜组建货币区。为了解决这个问题,本书引入异质性分析,得出在当前区域一体化进程中,“同质”性约束条件有所放松,因而东亚并非不可以谈货币区的组建问题。然而,以上问题的解决只能说是对东亚是否适宜组建货币区进行了验证和消除了一些疑虑,东亚要真正走向货币一体化,还得解决货币一体化进程中几个不容忽视的问题,如组建货币区的成本收益问题、东亚的领土争端和历史遗留问题以及组建货币区的领导权问题等。


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