第一部分 阅读理解110篇及疑难长句注解与译文和题解

第一节 阅读理解110篇及疑难长句注解与译文

一、经济

TEXT 1

Shares of Apple and some of its suppliers were sagging on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he might include iPhones and other high-volume consumer electronics products in the potential next wave of tariffs on imports from China. The president's remarks added to anxiety about Apple's growth prospects and demand for its smartphones, but what he said should not be shocking. At the same time, even a minor dose of tariff pain carries more significance for Apple than it would have a couple of years ago.

Remember that the president's rattling against China has included a threat to impose tariffs on all $500 billion worth of goods the U. S. imports from China, and“all”would seem to include cellphones and computers, which are the top two categories of U. S. imports from China based on value of goods.

The Wall Street Journal, which conducted the interview with the president, said some Trump aides had suggested iPhones and laptops might be excluded from additional tariffs. Manufacturers of cars, washing machines and clothing would have good reason to be furious at the White House and Apple if the iPhone maker managed to avoid tariffs while they did not.

Exempting some companies from tariffs and not others isn't unprecedented, of course. The administration this summer removed hundreds of items from the list of imported goods subject to tariffs after lobbying from U. S. companies. If Apple does get hit with tariffs, the impact may not be profound. People who pay$1,000 or more for an iPhone when cheaper options are available are not making purchasing decisions on price alone. Some estimates have suggested a 10 percent tariff on iPhones imported into the U. S. would amount to about $40 a phone. That's not nothing, but it could be absorbed by Apple.

It's surprising how little Apple has said publicly about the possible impact from the tariff battle with China, where the vast majority of its products are assembled for shipment to the rest of the world. CEO Tim Cook has said he has told U. S. officials that tariffs hurt people and economic growth by raising prices on goods. He has also said that he thinks the U. S. and China will reach an amicable trade agreement. To nudge his preferred outcome, Cook has also played diplomat personally in lobbying U. S. and Chinese officials to reach a trade resolution. In securities filings, Apple has said that“international trade disputes could result in tariffs and other protectionist measures that could adversely affect”its business.

1.Compared with a few years ago, additional tariffs may now affect Apple ________.

[A]more seriously

[B]less significantly

[C]more specifically

[D]less obviously

2.The word“rattling”（Para. 2）probably means ________.

[A]challenge

[B]remark

[C]battle

[D]hostility

3.Favoring one company over another in tariff ________.

[A]is an impossible decision to make

[B]violates international trade agreements

[C]is not an unusual practice in the U. S.

[D]is a politically manipulated trick

4.Additional tariffs on iPhones will ________.

[A]result in a disastrous decline in sales volume

[B]hardly prevent customers from purchasing them

[C]lead to a significant reduction in annual profits

[D]force Apple to reconsider its business with China

5.What is Apple's attitude to trade war with China？

[A]Critical.

[B]Supportive.

[C]Indifferent.

[D]Apprehensive.

考研必备词汇

1.potential/pəu ˈtenʃl/a．潜在的，可能的

2.tariff/ ˈtærif/n．关税

3.remark/ri ˈmɑːk/n．评论，言辞

4.prospect/ ˈprɔspekt/n．前景，景色

5.dose/dəus/n．剂量

6.cellphone/ ˈselfəun/n．手机

7.category/ ˈkætiɡəri/n．种类；范畴

8.interview/ ˈintəvjuː/n．采访；会谈

9.aide/eid/n．助手，副手

10.laptop/ ˈlæptɔp/n．便携式电脑

11.manufacturer/ˈmænju ˈfæktʃərə/n．制造商

12.furious/ ˈfjuəriəs/a．狂怒的

13.exempt/iɡ ˈzempt/vt．豁免，免除

14.unprecedented/ʌn ˈpresidəntid/a．史无前例的

15.administration/ədˈminis ˈtreiʃən/n．管理；实行；政府

16.item/ ˈaitəm/n．项，项目

17.subject/ ˈsʌbdʒikt/a．易受……影响的

18.lobby/ ˈlɔbi/vt．游说（以便阻止或促成某事）

19.profound/prə ˈfaund/a．深的，深远的

20.option/ ˈɔpʃən/n．选择

21.purchase/ ˈpəːtʃəs/vt．购买

22.amount to 总量达到；等同于

23.absorb/əb ˈsɔːb/vt．吸收，吸引；承受

24.assemble/ə ˈsembl/vt．收集；集合，组装

25.shipment/ ˈʃipmənt/n．装船；运输

26.amicable/ ˈæmikəbl/a．亲切的，友善的

27.agreement/ə ˈɡ riːmənt/n．一致，同意；协议

28.diplomat/ ˈdipləmæt/n．外交家，外交官

29.resolution/ˈrezə ˈljuːʃən/n．决议；解决方案；决心

30.securities/s ˈi kjuəritiz/n．证券

31.filing/ ˈfailiŋ/n．存档文件

32.dispute/dis ˈpjuːt/n．争论；争端

33.result in 导致，产生……结果

34.protectionist/prə ˈtekʃənist/a．贸易保护主义（者）的

35.adversely/ ˈædvəːsli/ad．方向相反地；不利地

其他词汇

1.sag 下垂，低落；下降

2.rattling 喋喋不休地说话

疑难长句注解

1.Shares of Apple...from China.（第一段）

在主句中，suppliers指苹果公司产品供应商，sag描述人时指情绪低落，描述股票时指股价下跌。在after引导的状语从句中，high-volume指销量大，wave of tariffs on imports from China指美国对自中国进口的产品进行惩罚性加税，比如关税从10%提高到20%。

2.The administration this summer...companies.（第四段）

本句中，the administration指特朗普政府（Trump administration）; item指一组东西中的一个项目，这里指拟增税产品清单中的一种产品；subject to tariffs是形容词引导的短语，作定语修饰goods，指受（提高）关税影响的产品；介词短语after lobbying from U. S. companies作状语修饰谓语removed，其中lobby指到政府相关部门游说。

3.To nudge his preferred...resolution.（第五段）

本句中，nudge这里指促成某事，his preferred outcome指上一句说的“达成一个友好的贸易协议”, play diplomat指“扮演外交家（的角色）”, resolution指解决方案。

译文

苹果公司的股票和它的一些供应商周二都感觉萎靡不振，这天，唐纳德·特朗普总统说，他可能把iPhone和其他高销量电子产品也纳入潜在的下一波从中国进口产品的关税名单。总统的话加剧了对苹果公司发展前景以及对其智能手机需求的担忧，但是他说的话不应该引起震惊。同时，与几年前相比，即使少量的关税负担也对苹果公司更有意义。

曾记得，总统对中国的指责包括威胁要对从中国进口到美国价值5000亿美元的全部产品强加关税。这里所说的“全部”似乎包括手机和计算机，从货物价值来看，这是美国从中国进口的最大两类产品。

《华尔街日报》采访了总统，他们说总统的某些助手暗示iPhone和便携式电脑可能被排除在追加关税名单之外。如果iPhone制造商能设法躲开关税而自己不能，汽车、洗衣机和服装制造商也有理由对白宫和苹果公司感到愤怒。

从关税名单上排除某些公司而不是其他公司当然不是前所未有的事情。经过某些美国公司游说以后，特朗普政府今年夏季把几百种货物从强征关税名单中排除。如果苹果公司产品也被强征关税，其影响可能不会太大。那些虽然有更便宜的选择但仍花1000美元或更多买iPhone的人做出购买决定时考虑的不仅仅是价格。一些人估算，给进口到美国的iPhone增加10%的关税等于给每部手机提价约40美元。这虽然也不少，但是苹果公司能消化这一成本。

奇怪的是，苹果公司很少公开谈论跟中国的关税战对它可能产生的影响，其产品绝大多数在中国组装然后运送至世界各地。总裁Tim Cook曾说，他已经告诉美国官员，关税会抬高物价，对人和经济增长造成伤害。他还说，他认为美中将达成一个友好的贸易协议。为了促成他想要的结果，Cook亲自担当外交官，游说美中官员达成一个贸易方案。在一些证券文件中，苹果公司说，“国际贸易争端可能导致关税和其他保护主义措施，这不利于”其业务发展。

TEXT 2

Eric Sevareid, the author and broadcaster, said he was a pessimist about tomorrow but an optimist about the day after tomorrow. Regarding America's economy, prudent people should reverse that.

This Wednesday, according to the Financial Times's Robin Wigglesworth and Nicole Bullock, “the U. S. stock market will officially have enjoyed its longest-ever bull run”. The durable market rise that began March 6,2009, is as intoxicating as sobering:Nothing lasts. What is certain is that all expansions end. God, a wit has warned, is going to come down and pull civilization over for speeding. When He decides that today's expansion, currently in its 111th month（approaching twice the 58-month average length of post-1945 expansions）, has gone on long enough, the contraction probably will begin with the annual budget deficit exceeding$1 trillion.

Another hardy perennial among economic debates concerns the point at which the ratio of debt to GDP suppresses growth. The sort of good news—in that it will satisfy intellectual curiosity—is that we are going to find out where that point is:Within a decade, the national debt probably will be 100 percent of GDP and rising. As Irwin M. Stelzer of the Hudson Institute says, “If unlimited borrowing, financed by printing money, were a path to prosperity, then Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be top of the growth tables. ”

Jerome H. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, says fiscal policy is on an“unsustainable path, ”but such warnings are not noticed. The word“unsustainable”in fiscal rhetoric is akin to“unacceptable”in diplomatic parlance, where it usually refers to a situation soon to be accepted.

A recent International Monetary Fund analysis noted that among advanced economies, only the United States expects an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years. America's complacency caucus will respond:But among those economies, ours is performing especially well. What, however, if this is significantly an effect of exploding debt? Publicly held U.S.government debt has tripled in a decade.

Despite today's sharp discord between the parties, the political class is more united by class interest than it is divided by ideology. From left to right, this class has a permanent incentive to run enormous deficits—to charge, through taxation, current voters significantly less than the cost of the government goods and services they consume, and saddle future voters with the cost of servicing the resulting debt after the current crop of politicians has left the scene.

This crop derives its political philosophy from the musical Anni e:Tomorrow is always a day away. For normal people, however, the day after tomorrow always arrives.

1.The author warns that the long-lasting economic expansion ________.

[A]will cause the stock market to fall

[B]will come to a close some day

[C]will increase the budget deficit

[D]will do damage to modern civilization

2.It is implied in the third paragraph that ________.

[A]it is not possible to find out a turning point

[B]Venezuela and Zimbabwe are deep in debt

[C]economic growth can be boosted by debt

[D]debt is the best indicator of economic downturn

3.Jerome H. Powell is in favor of ________.

[A]carrying on the fiscal policy

[B]raising even more debt

[C]shrinking the debt burden

[D]accepting the current situation

4.The“complacency caucus”probably refers to ________.

[A]the IMF leaders who support the U. S. economy

[B]the superficial problems with advanced economies

[C]the reason why Americans are over-confident

[D]the U. S. leaders well-contented with its economy

5.Neither of the parties objects to the current fiscal policy because ________.

[A]they are not responsible for repaying the debt

[B]the policy provides incentives to the economy

[C]current voters are in full support of the policy

[D]they believe their philosophy is well-grounded

考研必备词汇

1.broadcaster/ ˈbrɔːdkɑːstə/n．广播员，广播公司

2.pessimist/ ˈpesimist/n．悲观（主义）者

3.optimist/ ˈɔptimist/n．乐观（主义）者

4.prudent/ ˈpruːdənt/a．慎重的，审慎的

5.reverse/ri ˈvəːs/vt．颠倒，反转；倒退，撤销

6.durable/ ˈdjuərəbl/a．持久的，耐久的

7.intoxicate/in ˈtɔksikeit/vt．使喝醉；使陶醉

8.sober/ ˈsəubə/vt．使酒醒；使冷静

9.wit/wit/n．机智，智慧

10.civilization/ˈsivəlai ˈzeiʃn/n．文明

11.contraction/kən ˈtrækʃən/n．收缩，缩减

12.budget/ ˈbʌdʒit/n．预算，开支

13.deficit/ ˈdefisit/n．赤字；不足，缺陷

14.trillion/ ˈtriljən/n．万亿，兆

15.ratio/ ˈreiʃiəu/n．比，比率

16.suppress/sə ˈpres/vt．镇压，压制

17.intellectual/ˈinti ˈlektjuəl/a．知性的，智力的

18.institute/ ˈinstitjuːt/n．学会，学院

19.prosperity/prɔs ˈperiti/n．繁荣，兴旺

20.Federal Reserve（美国）联邦储备委员会

21.fiscal/ ˈfiskəl/a．财政的

22.unsustainable/ˈʌnsəs ˈteinəbl/a．不可持续的

23.rhetoric/ ˈretərik/n．修辞，言辞

24.akin/ə ˈkin/a．同族的；同类的（to）

25.diplomatic/ˈdiplə ˈmætik/a．外交的

26.monetary/ ˈmʌnitəri/a．货币的

27.complacency/kəm ˈpleisnsi/n．自满，自得

28.explode/iks ˈpləud/v．爆炸，爆发；激增

29.triple/ ˈtripl/v．成三倍

30.discord/ ˈdiskɔːd/n．不一致，不和谐

31.ideology/ˈaidi ˈɔlədʒi/n．意识形态，思想体系

32.permanent/ ˈpəːmənənt/a．永久的，持久的

33.incentive/in ˈsentiv/n．刺激，鼓励

34.taxation/tæk ˈseiʃən/n．收税

35.derive/di ˈraiv/v．获得，得出；起源

其他词汇

1.pull over 让（司机把车）停在路边

2.perennial 持续多年的东西

3.Venezuela 委内瑞拉

4.Zimbabwe 津巴布韦

5.parlance 说法，用词

6.caucus 决策委员会，领导圈

7.saddle 加负担

疑难长句注解

1.Another hardy perennial...growth.（第三段）

句中，hardy原指耐严寒，这里用寓意，意为subject that is mentioned or discussed regularly（周期性地提出来讨论的老话题）; perennial的意思与hardy差不多，意为appearing or recurring on a yearly or continual basis。定语从句修饰point，其中the ratio of debt to GDP是说借债数额与国内生产总值之比。

2.The word...soon to be accepted.（第四段）

本句中rhetoric和parlance都是指“辞令，用词”，可以看作同义词，词组be akin to意为“近似于，类似于”; where引导的定语从句修饰in diplomatic parlance，指“在外交辞令中”。这个句子的意思是：在谈到财政政策时用unsustainable，就等于在外交上针对一个将要被接受的状况说unacceptable。

3.From left to right...left the scene.（第六段）

本句很长，破折号后面是一个不定式短语，进一步解释为什么这些政治家不反对run enormous deficits（负债运行）。在破折号后面，and连接两个动词短语，charge...current voters...less than the cost，指收税低于政府向选民提供的货物与服务的成本；saddle future voters with the cost of指让未来选民承担偿付债务的成本，这里，service作动词意为make interest payments on a debt（为债务支付利息）, servicing the resulting debt指让未来的选民为美国政府目前欠下的债务支付利息。名词crop意为“一群，一批”, the current crop of politicians指现在活跃在政治舞台上的这一群政治家——这样说带有贬义；left the scene意为“离场”，指这些政治家退出历史舞台。

译文

Eric Sevareid是作家和电台主持人，他说自己对明天很悲观但对后天很乐观。在看待美国经济时，谨慎的人应该反其道而行之。

本周三，根据《金融时报》的Robin Wigglesworth和Nicole Bullock的分析，“美国股票市场从官方数据来看将经历最长的牛市行情”。持续的股市上升开始于2009年3月6日，这是一件令人陶醉的事情，也是一件发人深省的事情：没有任何东西能永恒不变。可以肯定的是，所有扩张活动都会结束。智慧警告我们：上帝会从天而降，让文明因超速行驶而停靠路边。当他确定现今的扩张时间已经够长了的时候——目前的扩张已经持续了111个月（比二战后扩张的平均长度58个月长一倍），收缩也许会伴随年预算赤字超过一万亿美元而开始。

另外一个周期性的经济争论的老话题是负债达到GDP的多大比例时才会阻碍增长。好消息——说它是好消息是因为它能满足学术好奇——是我们将会找出这个点位之所在：在10年内，国债可能达到GDP的100%，而且还会上升。正如哈德逊研究所的Irwin M. Stelzer说，“如果无限制的借债——加以印钞的金融支持——是走向繁荣的途径，那么委内瑞拉和津巴布韦将在增长表上处于前列。”

Jerome H. Powell是美联储主席，他说财政政策正处在一条“不可持续的道路”上，但是这种警告没有引起注意。谈到财政政策时用“不可持续的”这个词，就等于在外交辞令中用“不可接受的”——在外交上这个词通常指很快要被接受的状况。

国际货币基金组织最近的分析指出，在发达经济体中，只有美国在未来五年中有可能提高其债务与GDP比率。美国自满的领导圈会回答：但是在这些经济体中，我们的运行特别好。然而，如果这在很大程度上是暴增的债务造成的效果，那会怎么样呢？在10年内，美国的公共政府债务已经翻了三倍。

尽管政党之间现在存在尖锐的分歧，政治阶层与其说是被意识形态隔离了，不如说是被阶层利益团结在一起。这个阶层中的左翼和右翼都对巨大赤字有着永久的兴趣——通过税收向目前的选民少收钱，收费显著低于选民消费的政府物品和服务的成本，而给未来的选民增加负担，等目前这群政治家离开政治舞台后，让未来的选民为他们留下的债务支付利息。

这群人的政治哲学来自音乐剧《安妮》：明天总是还有一天之隔。然而对正常人来说，后天总会来的。

TEXT 3

President Trump has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission（SEC）to investigate moving public companies to a six-month rather than three-month reporting cycle to combat excessive corporate focus on the short term. Few ideas command such widespread support as the notion that companies should be induced to concentrate more on the long term.

It is no surprise that the idea is attractive to many. Just as my students often suggest that the grading system forces them to study a particular syllabus rather than pursue their intellectual passions, managers prefer to avoid frequent accountability for results. The former chief executive of General Motors, Rick Wagoner, who presided over tens of billions of dollars of unsuccessful investment during the 2000s, was a leading voice against market-generated pressures for short-termism.

A variety of facts about market behavior belie the short-termism thesis. First, there are large numbers of companies, of which Amazon is only the most prominent example, that trade at huge multiples to current profits because of credible long-term plans. There are now hundreds of unicorns—private start-ups valued at more than$1 billion dollars—almost all of which have little or no profits. This suggests that investors are happy to buy into compelling long-run corporate visions. Second, many studies have confirmed that companies where cash flows are highest relative to stock prices earn the highest returns. If, as the short-termism thesis suggests, these companies were overvalued, one would expect them to earn abnormally low returns, not unusually high ones. Third, private equity firms and venture capitalists expect the companies they own to report on a monthly basis. Capable chief executives set a similar standard for divisions within their companies. Otherwise, they fear that problems will aggravate without being addressed. If companies with a sole owner in possession of a professional staff are expected to report frequently, why should the same not be true for public companies？

Reducing the frequency of corporate profit reporting would make major surprises and drastic market moves more likely. It would also allow managers to wait longer before they revealed major problems. Think of how much longer it would have taken for the issues at GE to become clear if the company had reported only every six months. Less-frequent reporting would also favor professional investors who are in constant touch with management over others whose information would be even more limited than it is today. In an age of big data and transparency, moving toward less information would be a very odd step.

Wise corporate leaders should give a sense of their long-term vision on at least an annual basis. Investors who insist on such information are only being reasonable.

1.The idea of long-term accountability ________.

[A]is attractive to many companies

[B]is acceptable to few companies

[C]is challenged and refuted by the SEC

[D]is combatted by public companies

2.The author's students complain that ________.

[A]they are forced to work for short term

[B]the grading system kills their passions

[C]managers have become less responsible

[D]it is harder to make long-term investment

3.Market facts tend to support ________.

[A]both long-and short-term profitability

[B]the booming growth of unicorns

[C]the investors with farther visions

[D]short-term investment and profitability

4.The attitude of the author to the practice of private equity firms is ________.

[A]positive

[B]negative

[C]indifferent

[D]optimistic

5.The case of GE is mentioned to illustrate ________.

[A]the failure of the company to attract capitals

[B]the long-term vision of the venture capitalists

[C]the advantage of long-term plans for a firm

[D]the disadvantage of less-frequent reporting

考研必备词汇

1.securities/si ˈkjuəritiz/n．证券

2.commission/kə ˈmiʃən/n．委员会；委任，代理

3.investigate/in ˈvestiɡ eit/vt．研究，调查

4.combat/ ˈkɔmbət/vt．与……战斗，与……搏斗

5.excessive/ik ˈsesiv/a．过度的，过分的

6.corporate/ ˈkɔːpərit/n．公司的

7.induce/in ˈdj uːs/vt．引诱，诱导

8.concentrate/ ˈkɔnsentreit/vt．集中；浓缩

9.syllabus/ ˈsiləbəs/n．大纲，课程提纲

10.intellectual/ˈinti ˈlektjuəl/a．智力的，知性的

11.accountability/əˈkauntə ˈbiliti/n．（有）责任，（有）义务

12.executive/iɡ ˈzekjutiv/n．行政长官；高管

13.preside/pri ˈzaid/v．主持；负责

14.generate/ ˈdʒenəˈreit/vt．产生，生成；生殖

15.belie/bi ˈlai/vt．证明……错误；掩盖

16.thesis/ ˈθiːsis/n．论题，主题；论文

17.prominent/ ˈprɔminənt/a．突出的，杰出的

18.credible/ ˈkredəbl/a．可信的，可靠的

19.unicorn/ ˈjuːnikɔːn/n．独角兽；独角兽公司

20.start-up 初创公司

21.compelling/kəm ˈpeliŋ/a．强制性的；引人注目的

22.vision/ ˈviʒən/n．视野，眼界，见识

23.overvalue/ˈəuvə ˈvælj uː/vt．估值过高；过度重视

24.abnormally/æb ˈnɔːməli/ad．不正常地，反常地

25.equity/ ˈekwiti/n．普通股；公平，公正

26.venture/ ˈventʃə/n．冒险（事业）；风险

27.aggravate/ ˈæɡ rəveit/vt．加重，加剧

28.address/ə ˈdres/vt．处理，解决；给……讲话；在……写地址

29.possession/pə ˈzeʃən/n．所有（物）；拥有

30.drastic/ ˈdræstik/a．剧烈的，猛烈的；极端的

31.management/ ˈmænidʒmənt/n．管理人员，资方；管理，控制

32.transparency/træns ˈpɛərənsi/n．透明性，透明度

其他词汇

1.short-termism 看重短期效益

2.multiple 倍数

3.cash flow 现金流

疑难长句注解

1.Few ideas command...the long term.（第一段）

这个句子是一个比较级，由such...as引导，被比较的是few ideas和the notion，显然是肯定notion后面的同位语从句表达的内容，即公司应该关注长期利益，其字面意思是：没有像……这样的想法更受欢迎的了。动词command意为“值得，应得”, that引导的从句作notion的同位语。

2.If companies with a sole...public companies?（第三段）

在从句中，companies with a sole owner in possession of a professional staff指私募股权公司或风险投资人投资的公司，with a sole owner in possession of a professional staff是with引导的独立结构，作定语修饰companies，这里指小公司（通常上市公司比较大）。主句中的public companies指上市公司。主句是一个设问句，其中the same be true for意为“……的情况也是如此，对……也一样”。

3.Less-frequent reporting...limited than it is today.（第四段）

这个句子很长，其主干结构是Less-frequent reporting...favor professional investors...over others...，显然，这是把两种人相比较，指出降低报告频率有利于前者，不利于后者。前者是与管理层保持联系的人，他们可以随时获取公司运营状况的信息，而后者则没有这种优势，本来获取的信息就有限，假如公司降低报告频率，他们得到的信息就更少。本句中over与favor搭配使用，management指“管理层”。

译文

特朗普总统已经要求证券交易委员会做出调研，动员上市公司每六个月——而不是每三个月报告其盈利状况，以防止公司过多地关注短期利益。应该引导公司更关注长期利益，没有比这种想法更能获得广泛支持的想法了。

这个提议对很多公司都有吸引力，这毫不奇怪。正像我的学生们经常暗示说，打分体制迫使他们学习某一门课程大纲，而不是追求自己的学术激情，管理者也更喜好避免不断对结果负责。在2000年代，通用汽车公司前总裁Rick Wagoner主持过数百亿美元的失败的投资，他带头反对为短期利益市场给管理者施加的压力。

有关市场行为的各种事实都不支持短期利益的论点。第一，有很多公司——亚马逊只是其中最突出的例子，由于它们可靠的长期计划，交易成倍增长，赚取了目前的利润。现在也有很多独角兽公司——估值超过10亿美元的私营初创企业，它们几乎都利润很低或根本没有利润。这说明，投资者乐意投资一些有吸引力并前景长期看好的公司。第二，很多研究验证了这一点，即相对于股票价格而言现金流特别高时，回报率就特别高。如果像短期利益者所主张的那样，这些公司被高估了，人们就会期待它们盈利异常低，而不是特别高。第三，私募股权公司和风险投资者期望他们投资的公司每月发表一份报告。有能力的总裁也在公司内部为各部门设立了同样的标准。否则，他们担心问题将在得到处理之前变得更糟。如果只有一位所有者控制所有专业人员的公司能被要求频繁提交报告，为什么不能对上市公司提出同样要求呢？

减少公司利润报告频率可能会导致意想不到的事情发生，或引发市场剧烈的动向。它也让经理们等待更久才能发现重大问题。想一想吧，假如通用电气公司只是每半年报告一次，它的问题就会等更长时间才能显露出来。降低报告频率也对专业投资者有利，这些人与管理层保持着持续的联系，比其他人更有优势——降低报告频率只能使后者获得的信息比现在更有限。在一个大数据和透明度很高的时代，向着获取更少信息迈进显然是一个非常怪异的做法。

聪明的公司领导应该考虑至少一年的长期前景。坚持要这类信息的投资者也是理性的。

TEXT 4

Many investors feel uncomfortable with the idea that their money could end up in businesses they disapprove of—whether for political, ethical or environmental reasons. Indeed, many prefer to put money into businesses they regard as a force for good. That might be about solving a societal problem—for example, producing clean power or behaving well as a corporate citizen, paying staff properly and steering clear of aggressive tax avoidance strategies.

These ideas underpin a boom in environmental, social and governance（ESG）investing, with$20 trillion invested worldwide. In one recent survey,40 per cent of investors said they had made at least one“impact investment”, where they hope it will have a positive impact.

But are such investors forced to compromise? It seems logical that, if you start selecting investments for reasons other than the best returns, you risk performance. The counter argument is that unsustainable investments are just that. As the world tackles climate change, polluting companies, say, will lose out to tougher regulation and a customer backlash. More broadly, companies that behave badly suffer reputational damage and lose customers.

Do sustainable investments attract lower returns? Mark Dampier, research director of Hargreaves Lansdown agrees. By definition, equity investment should be about the long term and，surely, so should sustainable investment. But, ironically, what you might define as unsustainable can also be around for a long time. He gave the example of tobacco industry. Many people thought that tobacco companies were going to be regulated and taxed out of existence in 2000. Yet they have proved much more durable—the regulations designed to cripple them have built a moat around them, creating near monopolies. For these reasons, it is not hard to argue that by limiting a fund manager's ability to invest, you might just be limiting their ability to make more money.

Simon Howard, chief executive of UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association，think otherwise. He said that there have been many studies linked to sustainable investment.Oxford University and investment manager Arabesque Partners reviewed more than 200 in 2015 and concluded that 80 per cent showed share price is positively influenced by good practices.

The studies suggest good corporate governance aligns with better financial performance, and that there is a positive relationship between environmental performance and financial performance. Work on social issues is probably less advanced, but the study showed a positive relationship between employee satisfaction and share-price performance. So, the idea that sustainability means poor returns is not borne out. Conversely, the firms that are investing in sustainable areas may trade very well and be highly regarded.

1.An“impact investment”is one which ________.

[A]earns remarkable economic returns

[B]generates benefits for the society

[C]affects the environment seriously

[D]has long-term effect on the society

2.Which of the following may suffer if you make an impact investment？

[A]Corporate reputation.

[B]Corporate performance.

[C]Customer loyalty.

[D]Climate and environment.

3.What Mark Dampier says comes down to the idea that ________.

[A]no investments can become sustainable

[B]bad regulations breed bad industries

[C]companies are not designed to do good

[D]sustainability is hard to define properly

4.80% per cent of the studies revealed a positive relationship between ________.

[A]good corporate behavior and share-price performance

[B]good corporate performance and work on social issues

[C]good financial performance and share-price performance

[D]good corporate practices and environmental performance

5.The text is mainly about ________.

[A]why companies should care for societal issues

[B]where the most profitable trading prospect lies

[C]how environmental issues influence companies

[D]how good corporate practices are linked to returns

考研必备词汇

1.end up（in）到达某处，达到某状态，采取某行动

2.disapprove/ˈdisə ˈpruːv/vt．（of）不批准；不赞同

3.ethical/ ˈeθikəl/a．伦理的，道德的

4.societal/sə ˈsaiətl/a．社会的

5.corporate/ ˈkɔːpərit/a．公司的

6.steer clear of 避免见到；避免涉入

7.aggressive/ə ˈɡ resiv/a．侵略的，好斗的

8.underpin/ˈʌndə ˈpin/vt．支持，做……基础

9.boom/buːm/n．快速发展，兴旺

10.governance/ ˈɡʌvənəns/n．统治；管理，治理

11.trillion/ ˈtriljən/n．万亿

12.compromise/ ˈkɔmprəmaiz/v．和解，妥协；折中

13.other than 不同于，除了

14.performance/pə ˈfɔːməns/n．成绩，业绩；履行，实行；表演

15.counter/ ˈkauntə/a．相反的，对抗的

16.unsustainable/ˈʌnsəs ˈteinəbl/a．不可持续的

17.tackle/ ˈtækl/vt．着手应付，处理

18.regulation/ˈreɡju ˈleiʃən/n．管制（措施）；调节

19.reputational/ˈrepjuː ˈteiʃənəl/a．名声的

20.equity/ ˈekwiti/n．普通股，股权；公平

21.ironically/ai ˈrɔnikli/ad．讽刺地

22.durable/ ˈdjuərəbl/a．耐久的，持久的

23.cripple/ ˈkripl/vt．使残废；削弱

24.monopoly/mə ˈnɔpəli/n．垄断

25.executive/iɡ ˈzekjutiv/n．执行者，管理者

26.align/ə ˈlain/v．排成行；一致

27.bear out 证实

28.conversely/ ˈkɔnvəːsli/ad．相反地

其他词汇

1.lose out 失败，达不到目的

2.backlash 反冲（力）；强烈反应

3.tobacco 烟草

4.moat 护城河，深沟

疑难长句注解

1.That might be about solving...strategies.（第一段）

句中that指投钱给做善事的公司，上一句的a force for good可以理解为“行善的力量”。破折号后面举例说明“解决社会问题”的含义，其中“像一个公司公民一样行为端正”实际上是把公司比作一个社会良民。词组steer clear of意为“完全躲开，不靠近”。

2.Yet they have proved...monopolies.（第四段）

本句中，they指烟草公司，durable是说它们仍然没有破产；the regulations designed to cripple them指对烟草公司的严格管制（包括罚款和课以重税），其目的是让它们难以为继；have built a moat around them是比喻，指这些管制措施反而保护了它们，使小公司破产，而大公司获得垄断地位。

3.Work on social issues...performance.（第六段）

本句中的Work on social issues照应第一段中的solving a societal problem，指公司的行为旨在解决社会问题。advance这里意为“推动”，即推动社会问题的解决。work on social issues is...less advanced可以理解为公司在这方面的作用不太明显。所谓positive relationship指正相关，区别于负相关。

译文

许多投资者对他们的钱最终可能投给自己不赞许的公司感到担忧——无论出于政治的、道德的还是环境的原因。的确，许多投资者宁愿把钱投给他们认为做善事的公司。这可能是解决社会问题的公司，比如生产清洁能源的公司，或一贯行为端正，给雇员合理薪水，完全不采用积极避税政策的公司。

这些想法是环境、社会和治理（ESG）投资繁荣的基础，吸引了全球20万亿美元的投资。在最近一次调查中，有40%的投资者说他们至少做过一项“影响力投资”，他们希望它将产生积极影响。

但是，这种投资者会不得不作出妥协吗？如果你开始选择投资时是出于产生最佳（经济）回报以外的原因，那么你就是在拿公司业绩进行冒险，这似乎是符合逻辑的。对此反驳的论点是，不可持续的投资就是这样。比如说，在全世界应对气候变化的时候，污染性企业将因为更严格的管制措施和顾客的强烈反对而成为失败者。更广泛地说，行为不端的公司会遭受名誉损失并失去顾客。

可持续投资真的只是赚取更低的回报吗？Hargreaves Lansdown的研究室主任Mark Dampier认同这种说法。从定义上来说，股权投资应该是长期的，当然，可持续投资也应该是如此。但是，具有讽刺意味的是，你可以定义不可持续的投资也可以是长期的。他举烟草业作为例子。很多人曾以为烟草公司将被管制，被课以重税，以至于2000年会不复存在。可是最终证明它们能持续得更长久——为了削弱它们而制定的管制措施也同时在它们周围建立了护城河，创造出了近乎垄断的烟草公司。基于这样的理由，不难说，限制基金经理的投资能力，可能只限制他们赚更多钱的能力。

Simon Howard是英国可持续投资和金融协会会长，他看法不同。他说，有很多研究与可持续投资有关。牛津大学和Arabesque Partners投资管理公司在2015年审查了200多项研究，他们得出结论说，80%的研究显示，股票价格受到良好公司行为的积极影响。

这些研究表明，好的公司管理与更好的经济业绩相一致，而且在环境业绩和经济业绩之间存在着正相关。在社会问题方面所做的工作也许不那么明显，但是有研究表明，雇员满意度和股票的市场表现之间也存在正相关。可见，可持续性意味着低投资回报，这种看法是没有证据的。相反，投资可持续领域的公司可能买卖做得很好，而且很受尊重。

TEXT 5

Of course there must be a Brexit transition deal. Brexit without transition is skydiving without insurance. Leavers and remainers must agree on that. The Brexit talks are clearly not going well, even on the simplest of issues. The idea that in 18 months every one of a hundred topics will be done and dusted is stupid. No transition is flat-Earthism.

But that is easier said than done. At present the two areas in most urgent need of reassurance—tariffs and people movement—are already shifting ministerial minds. Yesterday clear signals were given that a deal of two to four years of open borders was likely after 2019, if for no other reason than that anything else would spell disaster for the catering, health, farming and construction sectors. In addition, business leaders have left Downing Street in no doubt that to leave them facing a“cliff edge”of trade barriers on day one would be insane.

The trade minister, Liam Fox, was right to point out that transition is not too hard. It simply means that nothing changes. Borders remain open. People can flow in and out. Britain is already part of a zero-tariff zone with the EU, and has regulatory equivalence, the twin bases of any trading relationship. If they need formalizing, that can be had“off the shelf”, through the mechanism of the European Economic Area（the Norway option）or the European Free Trade Area（the Switzerland option）. Where there is a will, there is a way.

Two problems remain. One is that transition is not a certainty. Every indication that talks are not going well or that continental countries are lining up to steal British business is one more blow to economic confidence. Ministers can posture and waver and score points in the short term.Business must make decisions. Workers must know whether to return home. Just now, only a fool would gamble on David Davis“beating”Michel Barnier in Brussels.

A second and more serious problem is political. One person's Brexit transition is another's back-door remain. Every concession by Davis, every acceptance that Brexit is more complicated than at first thought, is a red rag to the leave bulls. At some point, Theresa May must start cashing in her Brexit chips. She must confront her backbencher Brexiters and tell them to get real.

Britain is going to leave the EU, as commanded by the electorate. But leave has a thousand meanings. Just now there are two options:the medium-term security of transition or instant chaos. Transition is uncertain, but it is better than chaos.

1.Brexit should not be realized too soon because ________.

[A]there are many remaining issues to be worked out

[B]Britain must get favorable terms for leaving the EU

[C]some conservative people refuse to leave the EU

[D]Britain needs to get reassurance from its people

2.Business leaders worry that ________.

[A]they won't get adequate support from the government

[B]they will be faced with immediate trading barriers

[C]they will suffer loss in farming and construction sectors

[D]they will be faced with an outflow of top talents

3.The trade minister of Britain is in favor of ________.

[A]a transition

[B]the Norway option

[C]the Switzerland option

[D]a zero-tariff zone

4.One possible danger to the idea of transition is ________.

[A]Teresa May losing political support

[B]David Davis losing the Brexit talks

[C]economic confidence being shattered

[D]more and more people accepting Brexit

5.The author compares Brexit without transition to ________.

[A]a decision made off the shelf

[B]a red rag to the leave bulls

[C]cashing in gambling chips

[D]skydiving without insurance

考研必备词汇

1.transition/træn ˈziʒən/n．转变，转化；过渡

2.insurance/in ˈʃuərəns/n．安全保障；保险

3.reassurance/ˈriːə ˈʃurəns/n．再保证；（令）放心

4.tariff/ ˈtærif/n．关税

5.ministerial/ˈminis ˈtiəriəl/a．部长的；牧师的

6.border/ ˈbɔːdə/n．边界；界限

7.spell/spel/vt．拼写；招致，带来

8.cliff/klif/n．悬崖，峭壁

9.barrier/ ˈbæriə/n．障碍，壁垒

10.insane/in ˈsein/a．不清醒的，疯的

11.zone/zəun/n．区域，地带

12.regulatory/ ˈreɡ julətəri/a．管制的，法规的

13.equivalence/ ˈi kwivələns/n．等同（物），等值

14.formalize/ ˈfɔːməlaiz/vt．使正式（化）

15.off the shelf 现成的，现货供应

16.mechanism/ ˈmekənizəm/n．机制；方法

17.option/ ˈɔpʃən/n．选择

18.continental/kɔnti ˈnentl/a．大陆的，欧洲大陆的

19.posture/ ˈpɔstʃə/n．姿势，姿态v．做……姿态

20.waver/ ˈweivə/v．摇摆；犹豫不决

21.in short term 短期内

22.gamble/ ˈɡ æmbl/v．赌博，打赌

23.concession/kən ˈseʃən/n．让步，妥协

24.rag/ræɡ/n．破布；破衣烂衫

25.chip/tʃip/n．碎片；芯片；（赌博的）筹码

26.confront/kən ˈfrʌnt/vt．面临，面对；对抗

27.electorate/i ˈlektərət/n．选举人（总称）

28.medium/ ˈmiːdjəm/a．中等的，中型的n．媒体，介质

29.instant/ ˈinstənt/a．立刻的，即时的

30.chaos/keiɔs/n．无序，混乱；混沌

其他词汇

1.flat-earthism 地球扁平理论

2.catering 餐饮业，饮食业

3.backbencher（议会中）坐后排者；后座议员

疑难长句注解

1.The idea that in 18 months...stupid.（第一段）

本句的主干结构是The idea...is stupid，意为“这种想法是愚蠢的”，其中that引导的从句作idea的同位语。句中，18 months指英国脱欧的谈判期，a hundred topics只是一个概数，形容要解决的问题很多，动词dust原意为“除去灰尘”，这里指“解决问题”。

2.At present the two areas...ministerial minds.（第二段）

本句的主干结构是the two areas...are already shifting ministerial minds，其中ministerial指“内阁的，政府官员的”，因此shifting ministerial minds指改变英国内阁官员的心态（下一段提到贸易大臣对脱欧过渡期的看法），也就是说，政府内阁官员在两个方面正在改变自己的看法，这两个方面是（英国和欧盟之间的）关税和人员流动——比如下文提到开放的边界（open borders），允许人民自由出入英国。

3.Yesterday clear signals were given...sectors.（第二段）

这是本文中结构最复杂的一个句子，它由if引导的条件状语从句和主句组成。在主句中，that...after 2019作signals的同位语从句，意为：这个信号就是在2019年（英国脱欧谈判结束）以后英国在两年到四年内仍然保持开放的边界，允许英国和欧盟国家之间人员的自由流动。从句实际上是一个省略句，应该是if（it is）for no other reason...，其中than之后是that引导的一个从句，表示一种状况。从句的意思是：之所以在2019年之后仍然保持开放的边界，如果不是因为其他理由，最起码是因为：如果不这样做，就会给餐饮业、卫生行业、农业和建筑行业带来灾难。这里，spell意为“招致，意味着”，而anything else指其他做法（不开放边界）。

4.Every indication...economic confidence.（第四段）

句子的主干结构是Every indication...is one more blow to economic confidence，意为“任何……迹象都对（英国人的）经济信心是一个新的打击”。在主语部分，两个that引导的从句并列作indication（迹象）的同位语。

5.One person's Brexit transition is another's back-door remain.（第五段）

本句中，remain是名词，意为“遗留物，残余”。这句话实际上是说赞同硬脱欧的人与赞同软脱欧的人对于应否设立过渡期有不同看法，赞同硬脱欧的人可能会反对设立过渡期，认为这是留出后门（虽然关闭了英国的前门）——结果造成仍然没有完全脱欧。

译文

当然应该有脱欧过渡条件。没有过渡的脱欧就等于在没有安全保障措施的情况下玩高空跳伞。主张离开的人和留下的人必须对此有共识。脱欧谈判目前显然进展不顺利，即使在一些最简单的问题上也是如此。在18个月之后，上百个议题中的每一个都能搞定，能尘埃落定，这种想法是愚蠢的。没有任何过渡期有违常识。

但是，说起来容易，做起来难。目前，最需要保障的两个领域——关税和人的流动——正在改变政府心态。昨日清晰的信号表明，可能商定在2019年之后延续两年到四年的开放边界，如果不这样做，就可能给饮食业、卫生行业、农业和建筑行业带来灾难。况且，商界领袖已经让英国政府深信，马上让他们面对贸易壁垒的“悬崖边”是不明智的。

贸易大臣Liam Fox正确指出，过渡期不会太艰难。这仅仅意味着所有事情暂时不变。边界继续开放，人们可以流入流出。对欧盟来讲，英国已经属于零关税地区，有对应的管制措施，这是任何贸易关系的两个基础。如果它们需要被形式化，该过程可以通过欧洲经济区（挪威的选择）或欧洲自贸区（瑞士的选择）的机制得以解决。有志者事竟成。

还存在两个问题。第一个是过渡期充满不确定性。谈判进展不顺，欧洲大陆国家正联合起来抢英国的买卖，任何类似迹象都对英国的经济信心造成新的打击。部长们可以表态，可以犹豫不决，可以在短时期内为自己赢得支持，但是商业界必须做出决定。工人们必须知道是否打道回府。现在，只有傻子才会赌David Davis在布鲁塞尔的谈判中能“击败”Michel Barnier。

第二个问题——也是更严重的问题是政治方面的。对一个人来说是脱欧过渡期，对另外一个人来说可能是留着后门。Davis做出的任何让步，任何承认脱欧比乍一看要复杂得多的做法，对坚持脱欧的人来说都像是斗牛的红布。特蕾莎·梅首相必须在某个时点开始兑现其脱欧筹码。她必须面对支持脱欧的后座议员，让他们变得更现实些。

英国将要离开欧盟，这是选民要求的。但是“离开”有千种含义。目前来看有两种选择：过渡期带来的中期稳定或即时的混乱。过渡期是不确定的，但是总比混乱好。

TEXT 6

A few years back, Jared Bernstein and I wrote a book on the benefits of full employment that emphasized this point about full employment—offering especially large benefits for the disadvantaged. A new paper from the Federal Reserve Board made the same point with additional data and analysis. The basic point is that a high employment economy is an effective way to reduce racial discrimination in the labor market. While a low unemployment rate should not be an excuse for abandoning policies explicitly designed to combat racial discrimination in the labor market, it is a very effective tool, especially at a time when other channels may be blocked.

We see clear evidence of the benefits over the last three years. The members of the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee（FOMC）, which decides interest rate policy, are regularly surveyed about their estimate for the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment or NAIRU. This is in principle the lowest the unemployment rate can go before inflation starts to spiral upward.

In the survey given three years ago, the range of estimates from FOMC members went from 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent. Today, the unemployment rate is 4.4 percent. Furthermore, inflationary pressures by almost every measure have weakened in the last year, suggesting that the unemployment rate could go even lower without causing inflation to be a problem.

But it's worth asking what would have happened if the inflation hawks among the FOMC had gotten their way. This would have meant that the Fed would have raised interest rates sooner and faster, preventing the unemployment rate from getting below their projections for the NAIRU.

If we start at the more optimistic 5.2 percent number, the economy reached this level of unemployment in July of 2015. At that time the employment-to-population ratio（EPOP）for African Americans was 55.9 percent. In the most recent data, the EPOP for African Americans was 57.6 percent. This translates into another 560,000 African Americans with jobs. There is a similar story with Hispanics. Their EPOP is 62.9 percent today, compared to 61.4 percent in July of 2015.

These points are especially important now, because Donald Trump is about to make his first appointment to the Federal Reserve Board. His pick is Marvin Goodfriend, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University. Goodfriend has been a consistent critic of the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve Board（and Congress）to try to speed the recovery and lower unemployment. It is a safe bet that he would be among the inflation hawks that would be looking to slow the economy and reduce the rate of job creation.

1.The author agrees with the Federal Reserve Board that ________.

[A]federal policies should benefits the disadvantaged

[B]racial discrimination is rampant in the labor market

[C]full employment effectively relieves racial discrimination

[D]low unemployment rate explicitly reduce discrimination

2.The author implies that ________.

[A]a low unemployment rate benefits the disadvantaged less than full employment

[B]FOMC often fails to make the right interest rate policy

[C]NAIRU is a very difficult thing for possible prediction

[D]inflation and unemployment often go in opposite directions

3.The inflation hawks would not hesitate to ________.

[A]raise interest rates

[B]lower their economic projections

[C]keep inflation down

[D]slow down economic growth

4.Professor Goodfriend blames the Federal Reserve Board for ________.

[A]not supporting Trump's effort to fight unemployment

[B]betting too much on manipulating the interest rates

[C]trying to recover growth by reducing unemployment

[D]making policies in favor of encouraging job creation

5.Which of the following is the best title of the text？

[A]The Need to Speed Economic Recovery

[B]The Inflation Hawks and Doves

[C]The Advantages of Lower Jobless Rates

[D]The Best Weapon Against Discrimination

考研必备词汇

1.disadvantaged/ˈdisəd ˈvɑːntidʒd/a．生活条件差的，不利的

2.Federal Reserve[简称Fed]（美国）联邦储备委员会

3.board/bɔːd/n．委员会，董事会；木板；甲板

4.discrimination/disˈkrimi ˈneiʃən/n．歧视；辨别，区分

5.abandon/ə ˈbændən/vt．放弃，丢弃；放纵

6.explicitly/iks ˈplisitli/ad．明确地；显性地

7.combat/ ˈkɔmbət/vt．跟……斗争（或搏斗）

8.channel/ ˈtʃænl/n．频道；渠道；途径，手段；海峡

9.block/blɔk/vt．堵塞，堵住

10.survey/səː ˈvei/vt．&n．调查；评论，评述

11.accelerate/æk ˈseləreit/vt．加速

12.inflation/in ˈfleiʃən/n．通货膨胀；充气

13.principle/ ˈprinsəpl/n．原则，原理

14.spiral/ ˈspaiərəl/vi．螺旋式上升，攀升

15.hawk/hɔːk/n．鹰；鹰派人物

16.get one's way随心所欲做事，独行其是

17.projection/prə ˈdʒekʃən/n．预测；投射

18.optimistic/ ˈɔptimistik/a．乐观的

19.ratio/ ˈreiʃiəu/n．比，比率

20.translate/træns ˈleit/v．翻译；使转变

21.Hispanic/his ˈpænik/n．拉美裔美国人

22.appointment/ə ˈpɔintmənt/n．约会；任命，指定

23.consistent/kən ˈsistənt/a．一贯的，始终如一的

24.critic/ ˈkritik/n．批评者，批评家

25.pursue/pə ˈsjuː/vt．追赶；追求，寻求；从事

26.Congress/ ˈkɔŋɡ res/n．国会

27.recovery/ri ˈkʌvəri/n．恢复，找回；痊愈

疑难长句注解

1.While a low unemployment rate...be blocked.（第一段）

本句由一个while引导的让步状语从句和一个主句（it is a very effective too.l..）组成，其中主句中又包含一个时间状语从句。在让步状语从句中，explicitly...market是过去分词短语，作定语修饰policies。该从句的含义是：低失业率能降低就业种族歧视，但仍然需要制定政策来进一步降低它。在主句中it指上一句提到的a high employment economy，即充分就业状态。从整个句子来看，作者的意思是：充分就业和低失业率都能降低种族歧视，但是后者还需要政府政策的协助。言外之意，充分就业比低失业率在降低种族歧视上更有效。

2.But it's worth asking...their way.（第四段）

本句中，what引导的宾语从句是一个虚拟条件句，因为美联储中现在鸽派占据主导地位，结果没有提高加息的速度和强度。本段是说，如果鹰派占据主导地位，美联储加息的速度就会加快，这样经济复苏的速度就会减缓，失业率会上升，就业率下降，劳动力市场的歧视就会抬头。本句中inflation hawks指极力主张控制通货膨胀率上升的人，get one's way指不顾反对意见而强行做某事，这里指美联储鹰派人物提高利率。

3.Goodfriend has been a consistent...unemployment.（第六段）

本句中，a consistent critic指持续批评某件事情的人；pursued...unemployment是过去分词短语，作定语修饰policies，其中to try to speed the recovery and lower unemployment作目的状语，说明制定这些政策的目的是加快经济复苏、降低失业。

译文

几年前，Jared Bernstein和我写了一本书，谈到充分就业的好处，其中强调充分就业的下述好处——它能给社会弱势群体带来特别大的利益。美联储委员会在最新文件中提出了同样的观点，辅之以数据和分析。其基本观点是：高就业的经济是降低就业市场种族歧视的有效方法。虽然低失业率不应该成为放弃专门设计来对付就业市场种族歧视的政策的借口，但它是一个非常有效的工具，特别是在其他渠道可能被堵死以后。

我们在过去三年里看到了证明这些好处的清楚证据。美联储委员会的公开市场委员会决定利率政策，其成员被定期问到对非加速通货膨胀失业率（NAIRU）的预估。它原则上是指通货膨胀在开始盘旋上升之前失业率能达到的最低状态。

在三年前接受提问时，FOMC的委员们给出的估值范围在5.2%至6.0%之间。今天失业率是4.4%。而且，几乎所有尺度所测定的通货膨胀压力在过去一年都得到了缓解，这表明失业率可能趋向更低，而不会引起通货膨胀问题。

但是有必要问一问：如果FOMC中的通胀鹰派成员占了上风，那么会发生什么样的事情。这将意味着美联储会更早更快地提高利率，阻止失业率低于其对NAIRU做出的预测。

如果我们从更乐观的5.2%开始看，那么美国经济到达这个失业水平是在2015年7月。在那时，非裔美国人的就业与人口比（EPOP）是55.9%。在最新的数据中，非裔美国人的EPOP是57.6%。这等于又增添了56万非裔美国人的就业。类似情况也存在于拉美裔美国人中。他们的EPOP现在是62.9%，而在2015年7月是61.4%。

这些数字现在特别重要，因为唐纳德·特朗普马上要对美联储委员会做出第一个任命。他的选择是卡耐基·梅隆大学经济学教授Marvin Goodfriend。Goodfriend一直在批评美联储委员会（和国会）追求的政策，政策的目的是加速复苏和降低失业率。可以有把握地说，他将是一个通胀鹰派人物，希望减缓经济（的复苏），降低创造工作岗位的速度。

TEXT 7

It's being compared to bidding for the Olympic Games. The online retailing giant Amazon set Oct. 19 as the deadline for applications from cities wishing to host the company's second headquarters, its“HQ2, ”as the company is calling it. In response, metropolitan areas all over North America have scrambled to put their best offers on the table.

Amazon, based in Seattle, has set out a few prerequisites for bidders:The metro population should be more than 1 million, the airport should have direct flights to key US and international cities, and the mass transit system should be top-notch. Great public amenities, top universities, a reasonable cost of living, and a highly educated workforce will be valued, too. Amazon has also noted that economic incentives, such as tax breaks, could become a tiebreaker in choosing among the top contenders.

That's brought some sou-l searching among city officials:How sweet do we make our offer without the giveaways exceeding the benefits? As Amazon's building boom and expansion to 40,000 employees have taken hold in Seattle, home prices and traffic congestion have soared. Low-and moderate-income residents have been squeezed out. Not everyone is thrilled to be living in the country's largest company town.

The highest bidder is not guaranteed to win the prize. A city that plays a little harder to get may show a kind of self-confident attractiveness that says“you want to be with me. ”In Minnesota, for example, a bid to base HQ2 in the Twin Cities relies on the attractive lifestyle workers will find there and is offering very little in the way of financial incentives.

Getting caught up in an irrational bidding war probably isn't a smart strategy. But the effort that dozens of cities have made to put together a bid can be a positive thing. Creating an effective proposal meant bringing together local government, businesses, and civic groups that must set aside differences for the common good. The effort may have also encouraged a little introspection. What is great about our city or region? What plans are we making to ensure that our city will be even more vital and livable in the future？

In Detroit, nearly 100 consultants volunteered time to help shape the Motor City's bid. “I've never seen a community come together like that, ”one local top executive said. The city partnered with Windsor, Ontario, across the Detroit River, to make a joint proposal that touts the advantages both the United States and Canada have to offer. The competition's lone winner won't be known for some time.

1.Amazon wants its HQ2 to be hosted by a city with ________.

[A]adequate experience in retailing

[B]adorable generosity and sincerity

[C]convenient and pleasant facilities

[D]land public transportation system

2.The third paragraph mainly talks about ________.

[A]the problems in hosting a large company

[B]the benefits for hosting a large company

[C]the excitement a large company creates

[D]the historical development of Amazon

3.The bidding of the Twin Cities is mentioned to illustrate ________.

[A]the attractive lifestyle of the bidders

[B]the importance of bidders' self-confidence

[C]the attractiveness of financial incentives

[D]the enormous efforts made by bidders

4.All the contestants can use the bidding process to ________.

[A]educate the local companies and communities

[B]work out an effective strategy for the bidding

[C]re-examine the current irrational development

[D]think about how they will thrive in the future

5.The author deems the bidding to be ________.

[A]irrational

[B]ruthless

[C]beneficial

[D]detrimental

考研必备词汇

1.bid/bid/v．竞标，竞价

2.retail/ ˈriːteil/v．零售

3.deadline/ ˈdedlain/n．期限，最后日期

4.headquarters/ ˈhedˈkwɔːtəz/n．总部

5.metropolitan/ˈmetrə ˈpɔlitən/（简写作metro）a．大都市的

6.set out 出发，开始；提出，摆出

7.prerequisite/ ˈpriː ˈrekwizit/n．先决条件，必要条件

8.notch/nɔtʃ/n．等级，程度

9.amenity/ə ˈmiːniti/n．优雅，宜人；（公园等）公共设施

10.workforce/ ˈwəːkfɔːs/n．劳动力

11.incentive/in ˈsentiv/n．刺激，鼓励

12.tax break 税收优惠

13.contender/kən ˈtendə/n．争夺者，选手

14.giveaway/ɡ ivəwei/n．赠品；让渡

15.boom/buːm/n．（迅速）发展，繁荣

16.expansion/iks ˈpænʃən/n．扩展，扩大

17.take hold 抓住，夺取；扎根

18.congestion/kən ˈdʒestʃən/n．拥挤；堵塞

19.soar/sɔː/vi．翱翔；高启，飞涨

20.thrill/θril/vt．使毛骨悚然；使激动

21.guarantee/ˈɡ ærən ˈtiː/vt．保证，担保

22.irrational/i ˈræʃənəl/a．无理性的，不理智的

23.civic/ ˈsivik/a．城市的，市民的；公民的

24.set aside 搁置，不予考虑；放到一边，留出

25.introspection/ˈintrəu ˈspekʃən/n．内省，反省

26.consultant/kən ˈsʌltənt/n．（提供）咨询者，顾问

27.volunteer/ ˈvɔlən ˈtiə/vi．自愿，志愿做

28.joint/dʒɔint/a．共同的，联合的

其他词汇

1.scramble 争夺

2.transit 运送，运输

3.tiebreaker 决胜局；加时赛，打破平分的问题等

疑难长句注解

1.In response, metropolitan areas...the table.（第一段）

句中North America指北美地区，因为最后一段也提到了加拿大安大略省的温莎市；scramble意为“争夺”, put...on the table指把某个东西摆出来或放到谈判桌上。

2.As Amazon's building...have soared.（第三段）

句中building boom指大兴土木，建造设施，take hold意为“站稳脚，确立”。

3.The city partnered with...to offer.（第六段）

本句含有两个定语从句，that...offer修饰proposal，其中both...offer又修饰advantages。句中tout意为“兜售，炫耀”, Ontario指加拿大安大略省，Windsor指加拿大温莎市。

译文

这被与竞办奥林匹克运动会相比。在线零售巨头亚马逊把10月19日设为最后期限，让想做其第二大总部（该公司称之为HQ2）东道主的城市提出申请。北美各大都市地区做出反应，争相将它们最好的条件放在谈判桌上。

亚马逊位于西雅图，它向竞标者开出了几个必备条件：城市人口应该超过100万，机场应该有直飞美国和国际城市的航班，公共交通系统是顶级标准。优异的公共环境、一流大学、生活费用合理、教育水平高的劳动力也将会被重视。亚马逊还提到，经济刺激——比如税收优惠也可能在优秀竞争者的选择中起到决定作用。

这让城市官员开始思索：我们怎样在不让付出超过获利的情况下使我们的条件更有吸引力？随着亚马逊的大兴土木，其雇员扩大至四万人，它在西雅图扎下了根，接着出现房价大涨，交通严重堵塞。中等和低等收入居民被挤出。不是居住在美国最大公司所在城市的所有人都感觉很兴奋。

最大的竞标者不一定保证能中彩。一个花更大力气想得到它的城市需要展现一种自信的魅力，它似乎在说“你想到我们这里来”。比如在明尼苏达州，双城对HQ2的争夺依靠的是劳动者在那里将看到的有吸引力的生活方式，但并没有提供太多经济刺激。

沉迷于非理性的竞标战也许不是一个聪明的策略。但是几十个城市为一个标的所做出的努力可以成为一个正面举动。创造出一个有效的提案意味着把当地政府、商业和民间组织的努力结合在一起，它们必须为共同的利益搁置分歧。这种努力也鼓励它们做一些反省。我们城市或地区最大的魅力是什么？我们正在制订什么样的计划来保障我们的城市在未来更具活力、更宜居？

在底特律，几乎有100家咨询公司自愿花时间帮助这座汽车城准备投标。当地一位高管说，“我从未看到过一个城市如此团结一致”。底特律和底特律河对面的安大略省的温莎市合作提出了联合方案，宣传美国和加拿大能提供的各种优势。竞争的最后赢家要等一段时间才能揭晓。

TEXT 8

The presidential election has been viewed as a litmus test for how Americans think about the economy.To generalize, coastal urbanites think things are going more or less OK and rewarded Hillary Clinton, while Rust Belt and rural Americans feel the economy's unfairness and voted for Donald Trump.But unfortunately, both major-party candidates have failed in diagnosing the main source of the nation's economic problems, and it can be summed up in one word:technology.

When we've seen three decades of well-paying manufacturing jobs replaced by low-paying service-sector jobs with little or no benefits, and when vast stretches of America's industrial infrastructure have turned into decaying ghosts of prosperity past, it shouldn't be any surprise that a lot of Americans—on both right and left—are unhappy with the status quo.Many felt no choice but to vote for a person who was not the status-quo candidate.

There's just one problem with that reading of the economy:it's a lie.To suggest that trade deals are the main cause of the massive economic dislocation and historical concentration of wealth that have justly enraged so many Americans is to ignore the much vaster impact of technological change.The question is whether both candidates were simply afraid to publicly acknowledge it or if they just don't understand.An even more difficult one would have to follow, which is whether citizens should continue to unquestioningly embrace technology-fueled change, knowing it will prove even more disruptive to our economy and accelerate the massive transfer of wealth to tech elites who already have too much money for their own good.

As more and more of our economy is transformed into information, and as the rate of information processing speeds exponentially, technological change and its impact is accelerating.While it may not be completely halted, our political classes and technologists themselves have to start asking hard questions now about whether their techno-utopian ideology is more important than the many Americans it hurts along the way.Could valuing people and offering them a role, a sense of purpose, and employment—rather than, say, a reason to riot in the streets—possibly be a higher goal than robotic healthcare, self-driving cars and drone delivery services？

It's time to start the first real discussion about how to have a sustainable relationship with technology.This discussion needs to happen before this tsunami of technology slams into our economy.It needs to be far more skeptical about the benefits and sensitive to the drawbacks of technological change than it has been.Because if we don't ponder these rapid shocks to our fragile economy now, a great many of us—including plenty of white-collar, high-tech workers—will have all too much time to ponder it a few years down the road.

1.The expression“litmus test”（Para.1）means ________.

[A]an exam similar to intelligence test

[B]an indicator to prompt a judgment

[C]a factor that affects economic growth

[D]a problem leading to a total failure

2.The reason why people voted for Trump was that ________.

[A]he was good at economy and management

[B]he was an expert in manufacturing industry

[C]he helped to create the prosperity of the past

[D]he promised to change the current situation

3.In the author's opinion, economic disruption is brought on by ________.

[A]the concentration of wealth in the tech elites

[B]the large-scale relocation of factories and plants

[C]the influence of technological innovations

[D]politicians' failure to understand economy

4.The“drone delivery services”are mentioned because ________.

[A]they are most representative of the latest technology

[B]they have taken over many jobs from Americans

[C]they provide a lot of conveniences for many people

[D]they can deliver the best medical care for people

5.The author calls on politicians and technologists to ________.

[A]guard against the impact of technology

[B]embrace technology with more enthusiasm

[C]bring about more rapid technological change

[D]keep optimistic about the benefits of technology

考研必备词汇

1.generalize/ ˈdʒenərəlaiz/vt．概括，一般化

2.candidate/ ˈkændidit/n．候选人

3.manufacture/ˈmænju ˈfæktʃə/n．制造；捏造，假造

4.sector/ ˈsektə/n．部门，行业

5.infrastructure/ ˈinfrə ˈstrʌktʃə/n．基础结构，基础设施

6.decay/d ˈi kei/vi．腐朽，腐烂；衰减

7.status quo/ˈsteitəs ˈkwəu/n．现状

8.massive/ ˈmæsiv/a．巨大的，大规模的

9.concentration/ˈkɔnsen ˈtreiʃən/n．集中，专心

10.enrage/in ˈreidʒ/vt．激怒，触怒

11.acknowledge/ək ˈnɔlidʒ/vt．承认；感谢

12.embrace/im ˈbreis/vt．拥抱；包含；热情接纳

13.disruptive/dis ˈrʌptiv/a．破坏性的，分裂的

14.accelerate/æk ˈseləreit/vt．加速

15.transfer/træns ˈfəː/n．转移，调动

16.elite/ei ˈliːt/n．精英

17.exponentially/ˈekspə ˈnenʃəli/ad．以指数方式

18.halt/hɔːlt/vt．停止

19.utopian/juː ˈtəupjən/n．乌托邦，空想

20.ideology/ˈaidi ˈɔlədʒi/n．意识形态，思想体系

21.riot/ ˈraiət/vi．骚乱，制造暴乱

22.robotic/rəu ˈbɔtik/a．机器人的

23.delivery/di ˈlivəri/n．送货，投递；表达

24.sustainable/sə ˈsteinəbl/a．可持续的

25.tsunami/tsjuː ˈnaːmi/n．海啸

26.slam/slæm/vi．猛攻，猛打

27.skeptical/ ˈskeptikəl/a．怀疑的

28.sensitive/ ˈsensitiv/a．敏感的

29.drawback/ ˈdrɔːˈbæk/n．缺点，缺陷

30.ponder/ ˈpɔndə/vt．深思，仔细考虑

31.fragile/ ˈfrædʒail/a．脆的，脆弱的

其他词汇

1.litmus test 试金石

2.urbanite 城市居民

3.dislocation 打乱，混乱

4.drone 无人驾驶飞机

疑难长句注解

1.When we've seen...status quo.（第二段）

在第一个when引导的从句中，see sth.done是主干结构，service-sector指“服务业”, benefits指工资以外的各种补贴待遇。在第二个when引导的从句中，stretch指continuous or unbroken length, area, or expanse（连绵不断的地区或地带）, prosperity past指实业繁荣的历史。

2.To suggest that trade deals...technological change.（第三段）

本句的主语是不定式短语to suggest...many Americans，其中trade deals实际上是指美国的贸易逆差，that引导的定语从句修饰economic dislocation（经济混乱）和concentration of wealth（财富的集中）, justly是说美国人的这种愤怒是有道理的。

3.An even more difficult...their own good.（第三段）

主句中one是question的不定代词，have to follow指紧随其后的一个问题。合成词technology-fueled意为“技术推动的”, fuel作动词时意为“促进，推动，刺激”; too...for意为“太……以至于不”，比如The book is too difficult for his age.（这本书太难，不适合他的年龄）

4.Could valuing people...delivery services?（第四段）

本句的主干结构是Could valuing...and offering...be a higher goal than...。在主语部分，offering them a role实际上指给人一份工作，say表示举例；而robotic healthcare等指三个最新高技术领域，它们的采用使大量工人失业。

译文

总统选举被看作测试美国人如何看待经济的试金石。一般来说，东海岸城市的人认为情况还算可以，他们支持希拉里，而老工业区和乡间的美国人感到经济的不平等，因而投票选唐纳德·特朗普。但是不幸的是，两个主要政党的候选人都没有能够诊断出美国经济问题的主要根源，它可以由一个词概括：技术。

30多年的高收入制造业工作被低收入服务行业代替，几乎没有或根本没有带来利益；曾经繁荣的大片大片的美国实业设施变成了衰败的“鬼城”，当我们看到这些状态时，我们不应该对此感到吃惊：许多美国人——无论右派还是左派都对现状不满。许多人觉得除了投票支持一个不满现状的候选人之外别无选择。

这样解读经济只是有个问题：它是谎言。很多美国人对大规模的经济混乱和财富的历史集中感到义愤填膺，但是如果认为贸易买卖是造成这些现象的主要原因，就是忽视技术变化带来的更广泛影响。问题是两位候选人是否只是害怕当众承认这一点，还是他们根本就不明白。一个更难的问题紧随其后，即公民们是否应该继续毫无疑问地欢迎技术推动的变化，他们心里知道，技术将给我们的经济带来更大破坏，加速财富向技术精英的转移，而这些精英们的钱已经多得不能再多了。

随着我们的经济越来越转向信息经济，随着信息处理速度以指数增长，技术变化及其影响正在加速。虽然可能不会完全停止，但是我们各政治阶层和技术人员本身现在不得不问一些很残酷的问题：他们的技术乌托邦理念是否比它在形成过程中伤害的那么多美国人更加重要。重视人，给他们一个定位、一种目的感、一份工业——而不是给他们一个比如说上街暴乱的理由，这难道不比机器人化的健康医疗、无人驾驶汽车和无人驾驶飞机送货服务更重要吗？

是时候开始第一次真正的辩论了，讨论怎样与技术建立可持续的关系。这场讨论需要在技术风暴重击我们的经济之前进行。它需要我们比以往对技术变化带来的好处保持怀疑，对技术变化带来的害处保持敏感。因为，如果我们现在不思考带给我们经济的这些快速冲击，沿着这样的道路行走几年之后，我们将会有更多人花太多的时间去考虑它们——包括大量的白领、高技术工人。

TEXT 9

America's economy has now slumped into the eighth year of a recovery that demonstrates how much we have defined recovery down.The idea that essentially zero interest rates are, after 7.5 years, stimulating the economy“strains credulity, ”says James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis.But last month he and other members of the Federal Reserve Board understandably felt constrained to vote unanimously to continue today's rates for an economy that created just 38,000 jobs in May, and grew just 0.8 percent in the first quarter, after just 1.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The grim news is not that the economy continues to resist returning to normal.Rather, it is that this“current equilibrium”（Bullard's phrase）is the new normal.If 2 percent growth is, as he says, “the most likely scenario”for the foreseeable future, the nation faces a second consecutive lost decade—one without a year of 3 percent growth.N.Gregory Mankiw, Harvard economist and chairman of George W.Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, writes in the New York Times that in the past decade the growth rate of the real gross domestic product per person averaged 0.44 percent, down from the historical norm of 2 percent.

With the recovery aging, Larry Summers, former treasury secretary, guesses that“the annual probability of recession is 25 to 30 percent.”When it arrives in a near-zero interest rate environment, the Fed's monetary policy of zero interest rates, normally its countercyclical weapon—it usually reduces rates at least four percentage points in a recession—will be unable to cushion the shock.

Bullard says“labor market data is giving us different”—he means more encouraging—“signals than the GDP data.”But surely the fact that the official unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent is less important than this:The workforce participation rate has plunged, which has been only partly because of the population aging—baby boomers retiring.If labor participation were as high as when Barack Obama became president, the unemployment rate would be over 9 percent.

Certainly very low interest rates, by driving liquidity into equities and assets in search of higher yields, are aggravating the inequality that is disturbing American politics with distribution al conflicts.Homeowners, and the 10 percent of Americans who hold 81 percent of the directly and indirectly owned stocks（the stock market is 160 percent higher than its 2009 low）, are prospering.Those whose wealth comes from wages—formerly, the Democratic Party's base—are losing ground.No wonder Hillary Clinton vows to“expand”Social Security, never mind its shaky financial architecture.

1.James Bullard does not have firm belief in the idea that ________.

[A]zero interest rates help to speed up recovery

[B]credibility is vital to economic recovery

[C]economic recovery can be clearly defined

[D]a unanimous vote keeps interest rates stable

2.In the new normal of the economy, the growth rates ________.

[A]fluctuate constantly

[B]are kept at low percentages

[C]achieve a percentage of 3

[D]reach a historical height

3.What does Larry Summers think of the policy of low interest rates？

[A]It can save the economy from further recession.

[B]It can raise the U. S.economy by 25-30 percent.

[C]It can no longer promote economic growth.

[D]It can reduce recession by at least 4 percent.

4.It is implied that the unemployment data ________.

[A]is more important than it seems superficially

[B]is made worse by the retirement of the boomers

[C]has been distorted for political purpose

[D]does not reflect the true economic situation

5.Who benefit more from the low interest rates？

[A]Asset and stock owners.

[B]Wage earners.

[C]Political figures.

[D]The Democrats.

疑难长句注解

1.slump/slʌmp/vi．猛烈掉下；消沉，无活力

2.recovery/ri ˈkʌvəri/n．康复，恢复

3.essentially/i ˈsenʃəli/ad．从根本上，基本上

4.stimulate/ ˈstimj uleit/vt．刺激，促使

5.strain/strein/vt．施加压力；扭曲

6.Federal Reserve Board 联邦储备委员会

7.constrain/kən ˈstrein/vt．强迫，限制

8.unanimously/j u ˈnæniməsli/ad．全体一致地

9.grim/ɡ rim/a．冷酷的，可怕的，暗淡的

10.equilibrium/ˈiːkwi ˈlibriəm/n．平衡状态

11.scenario/si ˈnaːriəu/n．情景

12.foreseeable/fɔːˈ siːəbl/a．可预见的

13.consecutive/kən ˈsekjutiv/a．连续的

14.council/ ˈkaunsil/n．理事会，委员会

15.gross domestic product 国内生产总值

16.norm/nɔːm/n．标准，规范

17.treasury/ ˈtreʒəri/n．国库；财政部

18.recession/ri ˈseʃən/n．后退，衰退

19.monetary/ ˈmʌnitəri/a．货币的

20.cushion/ ˈkuʃən/vt．减轻，缓冲

21.workforce/ ˈwəːkfɔːs/n．劳动力

22.participation/paːˈtisi ˈpeiʃən/n．参与，参加

23.plunge/plʌndʒ/vi．投入；急降

24.baby boomer 婴儿潮出生的人

25.liquidity/li ˈkwiditi/n．流动性，流动资金

26.equity/ ˈekwiti/n．股票；公平

27.asset/ ˈæset/n．资产，财产；有价值的人

28.yield/jiːld/n．收成，收益；产量；屈服

29.aggravate/ ˈæɡ rəveit/vt．加重，加剧

30.distributional/ˈdistri ˈbjuʃənl/a．分布的；分配的

31.conflict/ ˈkɔnflikt/n．冲突

32.stock/stɔk/n．股票；存货

33.prosper/ ˈprɔspə/vi．繁荣，昌盛

34.vow/vau/vi．发誓

35.Social Security 社会保障（制度）

36.architecture/ ˈaːkitektʃə/n．建筑，结构

其他词汇

1.credulity 轻信

2.countercyclical 反经济循环周期的

疑难长句注解

1.The idea that essentially...St.Louis.（第一段）

本句的主干结构是The idea...strains credulity，意为“这种看法……人们不再轻信”; that...zero interest rates are stimulating the economy是同位语从句，表示idea的内容。

2.When it arrives in...cushion the shock.（第三段）

本句的主干结构是When it...environment, the Fed's monetary policy...will be unable to cushion the shock．主句中的shock指经济下行带来的冲击。句中，normally its countercyclical weapon是monetary policy的同位语，其中its指美联储。破折号中间的内容也是同位语，对美联储利率做出说明，说它最少能降四个百分点。这个句子的意思是：由于现在已经（几乎）是零利率，万一经济再出现衰退，美联储已经无法再靠降低利率拉动经济——因为它已经处于历史低位，已经降无可降。

3.Certainly very low interest rates...distributional conflicts.（第五段）

本句的主句是very low interest rates are aggravating the inequality，关系代词that引导定语从句，修饰inequality。本句中liquidity指资产和货币流动性，assets主要指不动产（如房产）; distributional conflicts指社会财富分配不公平，结果造成inequality。

译文

美国经济现在无精打采地进入第八个年头的复苏，这说明我们究竟是怎样错误界定复苏的。在七年半之后，位于圣路易的联邦储备银行总裁James Bullard说，近乎零利率正在刺激经济的增长，这种看法“不再轻易让人信服”。但是上个月，他和联邦储备委员会的其他成员违心地投出赞成票，一致同意维持目前的利率不变，这是可以理解的，因为在五月份，美国经济仅创造了3.8万个就业岗位，在第一季度仅增长0.8%，而在上一个季度也仅仅增长了1.4%。

可怕的消息不是经济持续无法回到正常状态，而是这种“目前的不上不下状态”（Bullard语）就是新常态。像他所说，如果2%的增长在可预见的未来是“最可能的景况”，美国就面临着连续第二个丧失的十年——一个连3%的增速都达不到的十年。N. Gregory Mankiw是哈佛大学经济学家，是乔治·布什总统经济顾问委员会主席，他在《纽约时报》上刊文写道，在过去十年里，国内人均生产总值的增长率平均是0.44%，低于2%的历史正常值。

随着复苏时间的加长，前财政部长Larry Summers猜测，“年度衰退的可能性提高到25%-30%。”通常情况下，美联储的这一货币政策是应对周期性下降的武器，在衰退情况下，它通常至少有四个百分点的降息空间。但是，当衰退与零利率的经济环境并存时，这一货币政策就无法对衰退造成的冲击起到缓冲作用。

Bullard说，“劳动力市场数据给出了不同的信号——他的意思是说比GDP数据更令人鼓舞的信号。”但是，官方失业率降低到4.7%，这一事实不如下列事实重要：劳动力参与率已经急剧下降，人口老龄化——婴儿潮时期出生的人正在逐渐退休——只是其中一部分原因。如果劳动力参与水平与奥巴马当上总统时那样高的话，现在的失业率应该超过9%。

可以肯定的是，极低的利率会给寻求更高回报的股票和房产注入流动性，这样就会恶化不平等的局面，这种分配上的冲突正在困扰着美国政治。有房者和10%直接或间接拥有81%股票的美国人（股票市场自2009年的低位算起上涨了160%）正在发大财。靠工资挣钱的人——这些人以前都是民主党的支持者——正在失去其地位。怪不得希拉里·克林顿发誓说，要“扩展”社会保障体系——尽管它自身的财政结构已经摇摇欲坠。

TEXT 10

Uber drivers were right to claim employment rights.But in a world where driverless cars may soon make them redundant, we face long-term dilemmas about the systems we choose.That's the future.Meanwhile, in the present, we have Uber, and its ridiculous claim to be a software company, not an employer.The attempt to drive down cab drivers' wages and reduce their employment rights to zero are, in their own way, a last gasp of the 20th-century economic thinking.Because soon there won't need to be drivers at all.

The most important question facing us is not whether Uber drivers should have employment rights（they should）, but what to do in a world where automation begins to eradicate work.If we accept that 47% of jobs are susceptible to automation, the most obvious problem is:how are people going to live？

The most heavily touted solution is the universal basic income.With the UBI, people are paid a basic income out of taxation, which they top up with work, which is assumed to be sporadic.The UBI has keen supporters now in the tech industry, whose billionaires have realised that，through rapid automation and its ability to render regulation useless, info-tech could create mass poverty over the next 20 years.In its boldest estimation, the UBI becomes a replacement for state provision:you get a fixed sum from the state and you spend it on Uber-ised public services, hailing the cheapest social care worker on an app, or the cheapest eye operation.

We should begin by recognising that, as machines plus artificial intelligence begin to replace human beings, the entire social, political and moral dilemma for humanity becomes a question of systems.While I support the basic income, I don't think it will be enough.To maintain a sporadically employed workforce through massive change, giving everyone £7,000 so they do not starve might not be the best use of taxpayers' money.Alongside that, we are going to need the massive expansion of state provision of homes, university education, re-skilling, energy, transport and healthcare—either ultra-cheap or free.

It is good to protect the employment rights tech predators are trying to take from them.Even better to eradicate the sense of insecurity in sporadic work through state provision of the basic necessities.People used to object to mass state provision on the grounds that“everything looks the same”.Once we're in a world of shared, driverless, essentially similar vehicles, or shared apartments furnished with the same cheap stuff, that objection will tend to pale.

1.For the present, the author criticizes Uber for ________.

[A]refusing to employ more cab drivers

[B]putting the world in a long-term dilemma

[C]driving cab drivers out of labor market

[D]using its software to change drivers' life

2.The main purpose of the UBI is to ________.

[A]reduce the tax burden of cab drivers

[B]reduce the tax burden of sporadic workers

[C]render state provision and regulation useless

[D]guarantee the basic necessities of the jobless

3.What does the author think of the UBI？

[A]It should be supplemented by other social projects.

[B]The amount of money it provides should be increased.

[C]The billionaires of the tech industry should contribute to it.

[D]It should replace other kinds of state provision.

4.The author insists that the battle over Uber and driverless cars ________.

[A]is actually a defense against tech predators

[B]is really a debate about the future of society

[C]is worthless since Uber is a software company

[D]will have no conclusion if government stands by

5.The“sporadically employed workforce”（Para.4）refers to people who ________.

[A]are qualified for the UBI

[B]live very cheap lives

[C]have no regular jobs

[D]earn minimum wages

考研必备词汇

1.redundant/ri ˈdʌndənt/a．冗余的，多余的

2.dilemma/di ˈlemə/n．二难选择，窘境

3.ridiculous/ri ˈdikjuləs/a．滑稽的，荒谬的

4.automation/ɔːtə ˈmeiʃən/n．自动（化）

5.eradicate/i ˈrædikeit/vt．根除，清除

6.susceptible/sə ˈseptəbl/a．易受影响的，易受损伤的

7.universal/ˈjuːn ˈi vəːsəl/a．普遍的，一般的

8.taxation/tæk ˈseiʃən/n．征税，税

9.sporadic/spə ˈrædik/a．不定时发生的，零星的

10.billionaire/ˈbiljə ˈnɛə/n．亿万富翁

11.render/ ˈrendə/vt．使成为；给予

12.regulation/ˈreɡ ju ˈleiʃən/n．管制，调节；法规

13.poverty/ ˈpɔvəti/n．贫穷，贫困

14.provision/prə ˈviʒən/n．供给；必需品

15.hail/heil/vt．打招呼；召唤

16.artificial intelligence（AI）人工智能

17.humanity/hjuː ˈmæniti/n．人类，人性

18.workforce/ ˈwəːkfɔːs/n．劳动力

19.massive/ ˈmæsiv/a．大而重的；大规模的

20.starve/staːv/vi．挨饿

21.expansion/iks ˈpænʃən/n．扩大，扩展

22.ultra-/ˈʌltrə/[ 前缀]超，过于

23.predator/ ˈpredətə/n．掠夺者；掠食者

24.insecurity/ˈinsi ˈkjuəriti/n．不安全，不牢靠

25.necessity/ni ˈsesiti/n．必要性；必需品

26.object（to）反对

27.on the ground that 基于，以……为由

28.essentially/i ˈsenʃəli/ad．基本上，从根本上

29.vehicle/ ˈviːikl/n．车辆；工具，手段

30.furnish/ ˈfəːniʃ/vt．装饰；提供，供给

其他词汇

touted 兜售的，强求的；吹捧的

疑难长句注解

1.The attempt to drive down...economic thinking.（第一段）

词组drive down意为“压低，使降低”, cab driver意为“出租车司机”, reduce their employment rights to zero指剥夺出租车司机的就业权；in their own way指主语中提到的这两种做法，gasp意为“喘息”, last gasp of the 20th-century economic thinking意思是说以上两种做法是20世纪留下来的经济思维模式，因为到了21世纪，出租车司机就不存在了，因此也没有必要谈论他们的就业权力和机会了。

2.In its boldest estimation...eye operation.（第三段）

本句中，In its boldest estimation指根据对UBI的大胆估计和预测，replacement意为“替代物”, state provision指由国家提供的各种福利保障；Uber-ised是作者生造的一个词，Uber-ised public services指类似于优步这样的公司提供的公共服务，包括这里提到的通过app所获得的廉价护工和廉价手术。

3.Once we're in a world...tend to pale.（第五段）

本句中，shared...vehicles指将来的汽车都标准化管理、都自动化，出租汽车行业变成了一个单调乏味的行业；shared apartment...stuff是说失业的出租汽车司机等下层社会的人居住在廉价公寓之内；pale在这里是动词，意为“变得苍白无力”。作者的意思是，过去人们曾经反对生活的千篇一律而导致的单调乏味（everything looks the same），但是一旦他们不得不使用千篇一律的出租车、住千篇一律的廉价房，他们将根本没有能力和资本反对了。

译文

优步司机要求就业权利是对的。但是在一个无人驾驶车很快可能淘汰他们的世界里，我们在应选择什么系统上面临长期的两难境地。这是未来的事情。同时，目前，我们有优步，它荒唐地声称自己是软件公司，不是雇主。企图压低出租车司机工资，将其就业权利降至零，这本身就是20世纪经济思维的一个最后的想法。因为很快就没有必要有司机了。

我们面临的最重要问题不是优步司机是否应该有就业权利（他们当然应该有），而是在自动化开始消除工作的世界里我们应该怎么办。如果我们接受47%的工作受到自动化的影响，最明显的问题莫过于：人们将怎样生活？

最被严肃地提出的解决方法是普遍基本收入。根据这一要求，人们从税收中被支付一项基本收入，然后用工作增加这一收入——这当然说的是零星的工作。在技术行业，普遍基本收入的提出现在受到热烈支持，这个行业里的亿万富翁意识到，虽然快速自动化使得管理变得无用，但是信息技术可能在未来20年创造大规模贫困。人们最大胆的预测是，普遍基本收入可能代替国家的供给：你从国家获得一笔固定数额，把它花在优步化的公共服务上，在应用上使用最便宜的社会护理工，或者做最便宜的眼科手术。

我们应该首先承认，随着机器和人工智能开始代替人，人类面临的整个社会、政治和道德困境成为系统[选择]问题。虽然我支持基本收入的做法，但我认为这是不够的。通过大规模的变化来维系零星就业工人的生活，给每个人7000英镑以便不让他们饿肚子，这可能不是使用纳税人钱的最好方式。除此之外，我们还将需要大规模扩大国家供应的住宅、大学教育、技术再造、能源、交通和健康医疗——或者以超便宜的方式，或者免费。

保护技术大鳄们企图剥夺的他们的就业权利的行动很好。但更好的是，通过国家提供生活基本需要来消除零星就业带来的不安全感。人们曾经反对国家大规模的供给，其理由是“每件东西看上去都是一样的”。一旦我们处于一个共享的、无司机的、基本上一样的车中，或者住进共享的、用同样的廉价材料装饰的公寓中，反对的声音就会减弱。

TEXT 11

Apartments in Vancouver show evidence of high housing demand.The Canadian government has announced a handful of measures aimed at dampening demand in its red-hot housing markets, including closing a tax loophole used by some foreign speculators.Canadian authorities are facing growing pressure to address foamy housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto, where home prices have more than doubled in the past decade.Earlier this year, Justin Trudeau, Canada's prime minister, pointed to an influx of capital from Asia as partly responsible for the soaring prices.

Currently, Canadian homeowners who sell their principal residences do not have to report the sale or pay taxes on any profit earned.Amid reports suggesting that some non-residents have been taking advantage of the same exemption, the government will now step up scrutiny of principal residences.

After Canada's ugly episode of racism in the early 20th century, Vancouverites feel uneasy talking about how this beautiful but unassuming city became one of the world's least affordable.In Vancouver, where housing prices have risen 249% since 2005, a 15% tax was introduced in August on all home buyers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents.Its introduction saw home sales in the Vancouver region drop 26% in August while the average price of detached properties fell, a decrease of 17% from one month earlier.

With an eye on increasing housing affordability, the city of Vancouver has also vowed to launch a tax on empty homes by 2017 and is currently exploring measures to curb short-term rentals through sites such as Airbnb.On Monday, the Canadian government said it would also introduce a“stress test”for insured borrowers in hopes of injecting greater stability into the country's housing market.Starting in mid-October, the test will ensure would-be homebuyers—some of whom are rushing to gain a foothold in the market amid fears of being priced out down the road—would be able to afford their mortgage if interest rates were to rise.

Monday's announcement received a mixed reaction.Josh Gordon, a professor at Vancouver's Simon Fraser University, described the government measures as prudent.The tax change, he said, sent a clear signal to foreign investors and others looking to speculate on real estate, because it suggests that the federal government does believe that foreign demand is an issue and it's willing to tackle that.Others argued that the shored-up tax requirement would do little to dissuade investors, whether it was foreigners or local people who have been using the exemption to avoid payments on profits earned from selling secondary residences.If people think they can make money on flipping real estate, they will.

1.Canada remedies its tax policy to ________.

[A]limit the influx of foreign money into the housing markets

[B]channel investment away from the foamy housing markets

[C]save the housing markets of the cities of Vancouver and Toronto

[D]stop foreign speculators investing in Canada's housing markets

2.The tax loophole allows homeowners to ________.

[A]sell their houses at a great profit

[B]put their principal residences on sale

[C]manipulate the housing prices

[D]avoid paying tax for their profit

3.Which of the following expressions can be used to depict today's Vancouver？

[A]Hostility towards outsiders.

[B]Unaffordable housing prices.

[C]Unpretentious lifestyle.

[D]Unbearable detachment.

4.The objective of the stress test is to ________.

[A]reduce the housing prices to affordable levels

[B]discourage foreign investors from the market

[C]test homebuyers' ability to pay back mortgage

[D]decrease the cost of renting homes in Vancouver

5.To Josh Gordon, closing the tax loophole will ________.

[A]yield both desirable and undesirable results

[B]help to curb foreign and domestic speculation

[C]exempt domestic buyers from paying more money

[D]do little to curb sales of secondary residences

考研必备词汇

1.apartment/ə ˈpaːtmənt/n．公寓式房屋

2.announce/ə ˈnauns/vt．宣布，通知

3.dampen/ ˈdæmpən/vt．使潮湿；抑制

4.loophole/ ˈluːphəul/n．漏洞

5.speculator/ ˈspekjuleitə/n．投机者

6.foamy/ ˈfəumi/a．泡沫的

7.prime minister 首相

8.influx/ ˈinflʌks/n．流入

9.soaring/ ˈsɔːriŋ/a．高涨的；翱翔的

10.principal/ ˈprinsəpəl/a．主要的

11.residence/ ˈrezidəns/n．住所，住宅

12.amid/ə ˈmid/prep．在……当中

13.exemption/iɡ ˈzempʃən/n．减免，豁免（税等）

14.step up 加强

15.scrutiny/ ˈskruːtini/n．仔细审查

16.episode/ ˈepisəud/n．一段经历（插曲、情节等）

17.affordable/ə ˈfɔːdəbl/a．买得起的

18.permanent/ ˈpəːmənənt/a．永久性的，常驻的

19.detached/di ˈtætʃt/a．分离的，独立的

20.vow/vau/vt．宣誓，郑重宣告

21.launch/lɔːntʃ/vt．发起，发动

22.curb/kəːb/vt．控制，约束

23.inj ect/in ˈdʒekt/vt．注射，注入

24.would-be 想要成为的，将要成为的

25.foothold/ ˈfuthəuld/n．立足点

26.mortgage/ ˈmɔːɡ idʒ/n．抵押（贷款）

27.prudent/ ˈpruːdənt/a．慎重的，精明的

28.speculate/ ˈspekjuˈleit/vi．投机；揣想

29.real estate/ˈriəl is ˈteit/n．房地产

30.tackle/ ˈtækl/vt．处理，应对

31.dissuade/di ˈsweid/vt．劝阻，劝诫

32.secondary/ ˈsekəndəri/a．次要的，附属的

其他词汇

1.unassuming 不张扬的，不摆架子的

2.rental 租金

3.shored-up 提高的，有支撑的

4.flipping 迅速变动的

疑难长句注解

Starting in mid-October...were to rise.（第四段）

句中the test指贷款时所做的还贷压力测试，词组gain a foothold in意为“在……挣得一席之地”, the market指房地产市场，be priced out指价格太高买不起，down the road指在价格上涨过程中。

译文

温哥华的房子显示出需求高涨的迹象。加拿大政府宣布了几项措施，旨在给其高烧的住房降温，包括填补一项被某些国外投机者利用的税款漏洞。加拿大各权力部门正面临越来越大的压力，他们需要解决温哥华和多伦多泡沫化的住房市场，在过去十年里，那里的房屋价格都翻了倍。今年早些时候，加拿大总理贾斯丁·特鲁多指出，从亚洲流入的资本是造成房价飞涨的部分原因。

目前，出售其主要住处的加拿大房主不必报告销售情况，或为挣得的任何利润纳税。有些报告显示，某些非本地居民利用了这些免税政策，针对这种情况，政府将对主要住房加大审查力度。

在加拿大经历了20世纪初丑陋的种族主义时期之后，温哥华人谈到这座美丽而不张扬的城市变成世界最贵的城市时感到不安。在温哥华，房价自2005年以来上升了249%，针对非加拿大国民和非永久居民房屋购买者，八月份出台了征收15%的税的政策。这项税使温哥华地区的房屋销售量降低26%，独栋房产的平均价格比上一个月降低了17%。

温哥华市一方面注意着不断上涨的房价，同时也发誓要在2017年对空置房屋出台收税政策，目前正在探讨通过空中食宿这样的网站减少短期租赁费的措施。在周一，加拿大政府说，它将针对有保险的借贷者引进“压力测试”措施，希望为本国房产市场注入更大稳定性。从十月中旬开始，测试将确保如果利率上升，未来的买房者能偿付抵押贷款——他们中有些人因为害怕房价高企后买不起房而冲进房地产市场。

周一宣布的事项引起了各种反应。Josh Gordon是温哥华西蒙弗雷泽大学教授，他称政府的措施是审慎的。他说，税收变化向希望在房地产上投机的外国投资者和其他人发出了一个清晰信号，因为它说明，联邦政府的确认为来自外国的需求是一个问题，它愿意解决这一问题。其他人争辩说，提高税收要求不会吓着投资者，不管是外国人还是当地人，因为这些人一直在利用免税政策，不为因销售二手房获得的利润纳税。如果人们认为自己能从波动的房地产市场挣钱，他们就会这样做。

TEXT 12

Economic forecasting is a mug's game.One thing that has been learned from the financial crisis and Great Recession is that even those equipped with the most sophisticated models get it wrong, sometimes spectacularly.In all honesty, the future is unknowable and anybody who says otherwise is lying.So, with that caveat, here's what I think might happen.

At some point, a recovery built on booming asset prices, weak growth in earnings and rising personal debt is going to lead to another huge financial crisis—but not in the next 12 months.Instead,2016 will be a year of living dangerously, papering over cracks and buying time before all the old problems resurface.

The big story of the past month has been the collapse in oil prices, which has taken the price of crude back to levels last seen in 2004.This has two beneficial effects for the global economy.It provides additional spending power for households and businesses that consume energy, and it bears down on inflation.There is always a bit of a delay between oil prices falling and spending going up in response, in part because people want to be sure that the lower costs are going to stick.With no sign that the oil cartel, Opec, has the political will to agree production curbs, it is quite possible that prices could continue to fall.

The impact of that will be to keep inflation lower than any of the world's major central banks are anticipating.Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank（ECB）insist they“look through”rises and falls in oil and other commodity prices and make their interest rate judgments on the basis of what is happening to core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs.But it is harder to raise interest rates if, for whatever reason, inflation continues to undershoot official forecasts.More importantly, there is evidence that a fall in inflation caused by cheaper oil has an effect on wage bargaining.

That matters because central banks are looking for signs of wage inflation picking up as a result of years of steady growth and falling unemployment.If wage inflation does not go up, there is less of a reason to raise the cost of borrowing.So both inflation and interest rates will stay lower for longer than currently anticipated.The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade earlier this month, but will be extremely cautious about its next move.The Bank of England will hold off from its first move.Cheap money will boost both borrowing and—for a time—growth.

1.The word“caveat”（Para.1）probably means ________.

[A]warning

[B]prediction

[C]honesty

[D]knowledge

2.2016 will be a year of living dangerously because ________.

[A]economic growth will suffer serious setbacks

[B]many economic problems will lie unsolved

[C]consumers will use money to buy time, not goods

[D]the price of crude oil will continue to fall

3.Lower oil price leads to ________.

[A]lower interest rate

[B]lower wage fluctuation

[C]lower inflation

[D]lower economic growth

4.Which of the following is more directly linked to interest rate increases？

[A]Rising commodity prices.

[B]Falling oil price.

[C]Falling unemployment.

[D]Rising core inflation.

5.The author's economic forecasting is characterized by ________.

[A]short-term pessimism

[B]long-term pessimism

[C]both short-term and long-term pessimism

[D]both short-term and long-term optimism

考研必备词汇

1.forecast/ ˈfɔːkɑːst/vt．预见，预测；预报

2.recession/ri ˈseʃən/n．撤回，退回；衰退

3.sophisticated/sə ˈfistikeitid/a．复杂的，尖端的；老练的

4.spectacularly/spek ˈtækj uləli/ad．壮观地；引人注意地

5.recovery/r ˈi kʌvəri/n．复苏，恢复

6.boom/buːm/vi．迅速增长n．繁荣

7.asset/ ˈæset/n．资产，财产

8.earning/ ˈəːniŋ/n．所赚的钱，收入

9.crack/ ˈkræk/n．裂缝；缺陷；爆裂声

10.resurface/riː ˈsəːfis/vi．重新露面

11.collapse/kə ˈlæps/n．倒塌，崩溃；失败

12.crude/kruːd/n．原油a．未加工的，粗糙的

13.household/ ˈhaushəuld/n．家庭，户

14.bear down on 压低；产生负面影响

15.inflation/in ˈfleiʃən/n．通货膨胀；充气

16.delay/di ˈlei/n．推迟，延误

17.curb/kəːb/vt．抑制，控制

18.anticipate/æn ˈtisipeit/vt．预期，期望

19.commodity/kə ˈmɔditi/n．商品

20.wage/weidʒ/n．工资vt．开展，进行

21.bargain/ ˈbɑːɡ in/vi．议价，商洽

22.pick up（速度等）提升，获得；开车接

23.hold off 拖延，延迟

24.boost/buːst/vt．增强，增加

其他词汇

1.mug's game 徒劳无益的活动

2.caveat 警告，谨慎

3.paper over 掩藏，虚饰

4.cartel 卡特尔，联合体

5.undershoot 未进入（区域）

疑难长句注解

1.There is always a bit of a delay...going to stick.（第三段）

本句中，in response意为“做出反应”，这里是说支付能力增强是对油价下降做出的反应；lower costs指更低的购买成本或生活成本，因为原油属于基础材料，这里所说的lower cost并非指原油价格本身的下降，而是指由于原油价格下降造成其他东西生产成本的下降；stick此处意为persist or endure（持续，保持）。

2.Policymakers at the US...food costs.（第四段）

本句中，词组look through意为“从头看完，仔细查对”, core inflation指剔除能源和食品价格之后的通货膨胀。

3.So both inflation and interest rates...anticipated.（第五段）

本句中有两个比较级，一是lower，二是longer，根据上下文，than currently anticipated应该指“比预测的时间更长”，而不是“比预测的数字更低”。

译文

经济预测是一个白费力气的事情。金融危机和大衰退给我们的一个教训是，即使那些创造出最复杂经济模型的人也会出错，有时错误还相当大。坦率地讲，未来是不可知的，说可知的人都在撒谎。所以，带着这样的警告，这里我想做一个预测。

在某个时间点上，建立在资产价格高涨、商业利润偏弱、个人债务上涨基础之上的经济复苏，将导向另一场大的金融危机——但是这不会在未来12个月中发生。相反，2016年将是伴随危险生活的一年，虚掩一些爆裂点，换取时间，最终所有的老问题都会重新浮现出来。

过去一个月最大的看点是油价的崩溃，把原油价格一下子带回2004年的水平。这对全球经济有两个有益的影响。它为消费能源的家庭和公司提供了额外的支付能力，压低了通货膨胀。油价的下降和支付能力上涨的反应之间总是存在一些时差，部分是因为人们想要确认低成本是否能持续。没有迹象表明，石油卡特尔Opec有赞同削减原油生产的政治意愿，因此油价可能会继续下跌。

其影响将是，通货膨胀将低于世界上任何一家中央银行对它的预测。政策制定者——比如美联储、英格兰银行、欧洲中央银行坚持说，他们“紧盯”油价的上下波动和其他商品价格，根据核心通货膨胀（不包括能源与食品成本价格）做出利率上的判断。但是，不管什么理由，如果通货膨胀继续达不到官方预测的区域，更难做出提高利率的决定。更重要的是，有证据表明，由更廉价的石油导致的低通货膨胀会影响工资的协商。

这一点很重要，因为中央银行正在寻找迹象，看一看多年的持续增长和失业率的下降是否造成了工资膨胀。如果工资膨胀没有上升，就没有理由提高借贷成本。因此，通货膨胀和利率都会在比现在预测的更长的时间段内保持较低水平。上个月美联储在经过近十年后再次提高了利率，但是下一次行动它会特别谨慎。英格兰银行将拖延其第一次加息行动。更便宜的货币将促进借贷并在一定时间内提高经济增长。

TEXT 13

Made in the USA is making a comeback.Climbing out of the recession, the U. S.has seen its manufacturing growth outpace that of other advanced nations.American workers are busy making things that customers around the world want to buy—and defying the narrative of the nation's supposedly inevitable manufacturing decline.

The past several months alone have seen some surprising reversals.Apple decided to assemble one of its Mac computer lines in the U. S.Walmart said it would pump up spending with American suppliers by$50 billion over the next decade.And Airbus will build JetBlue's new jets in Alabama.

Some economists argue that the gains are a natural part of the business cycle, rather than a sustainable recovery in the sector.But I would argue that the improvements of the last three years aren't a blip.They are the sum of a powerful equation refiguring the global economy.U. S.factories increasingly have access to cheap energy thanks to the increased availability of oil and gas.For companies outside the U. S., it's the opposite:high global oil prices translate into costlier fuel for ships and planes.And about those low-cost plants:workers from China to India are demanding and getting bigger paychecks, while U. S.companies have won massive concessions from unions over the past decade.Suddenly the math on outsourcing doesn't look quite as attractive.

Today's U. S.factories aren't the noisy places where your grandfather knocked in four bolts a minute for eight hours a day.Dungarees and lunch pails are out; computer skills and specialized training are in, since the new made-in-America economics is centered largely on cutting-edge technologies.The trick for U. S.companies is to develop new manufacturing techniques ahead of global competitors and then use them to produce goods more efficiently on superautomated factory floors.These factories of the future have more machines and fewer workers.The bar will only get higher:Some experts believe it won't be too long before employers will expect a four-year degree—a job qualification that will eventually be required in many other places around the world too.

Understanding this new look is critical if the U. S.wants to nurture manufacturing and grow jobs.There are implications for educators as well as policy-makers.“Manufacturing is coming back, but it's evolving into a very different type of animal than the one most people recognize today, ”says James Manyika, a director at McKinsey Global Institute who specializes in global high tech.“We're going to see new jobs, but nowhere near the number some people expect, especially in the short term.”Still, if the U. S.can get this right, though, the payoff will be tremendous.

1.The good news is that ________.

[A]America has climbed out of the recession

[B]the manufacturing sector is recovering

[C]America still leads other advanced nations

[D]customers want to buy American goods

2.The author differs from other economists in that he insists ________.

[A]the manufacturing growth is a sustainable recovery

[B]cheap oil price is the main cause for the recovery

[C]reduced labor cost has saved American economy

[D]a strong union is behind the improvements in business

3.The word“equation”（Para.3）probably means ________.

[A]a formula in mathematical model of economy

[B]a complex of variable elements or factors

[C]an obstacle that stands in the way of growth

[D]a calculation about the future economic trend

4.Sustainable growth in manufacturing can only be brought about by ________.

[A]lower cost of labor

[B]lower energy prices

[C]more machines but fewer workers

[D]the latest techniques

5.The author concludes the discussion by saying ________.

[A]one should not expect too much of the manufacturing growth

[B]tremendous investment is needed to sustain the present growth

[C]U. S.firms should make the best use of the current situation

[D]not many people have realized the importance of the new situation

考研必备词汇

1.comeback/ ˈkʌmbæk/n．复苏，复原

2.recession/ri ˈseʃən/n．撤回，退回；衰退，不景气

3.manufacture/ˈmænj u ˈfæktʃə/vt．制造，加工

4.outpace/aut ˈpeis/vt．超过……速度，赶过

5.defy/di ˈfai/vt．反抗；藐视

6.narrative/ ˈnærətiv/n．叙述，记叙文；小说

7.reversal/ri ˈvəːsəl/n．逆转，颠倒

8.assemble/ə ˈsembl/vt．装配；集合，聚集

9.pump up 积极参与，使振奋

10.sustainable/sə ˈsteinəbl/a．可持续的

11.recovery/ri ˈkʌvəri/n．恢复；痊愈；找回

12.sector/ ˈsektə/n．部门；部分，成分

13.equation /i ˈkweiʃən/n．综合因素；等式；相等

14.thank to 多亏，由于

15.availability/əˈveilə ˈbiliti/n．可得到，可利用

16.opposite/ ˈɔpəzit/a．对面的；反对的

17.translate/træns ˈleit/vt．转变；翻译

18.paycheck / ˈpeitʃek/n．付薪水用的支票；薪水

19.massive/ ˈmæsiv/a．大而重的；大规模的

20.concession/kən ˈseʃən/n．让步，妥协；承认

21.outsourcing/ ˈaut ˈsɔːsiŋ/n．外部采办，外购

22.pail/peil/n．桶

23.cutting-edge/ ˈkʌtiŋedʒ/a．尖端的，最先进的

24.ahead of 领先于，在……前

25.bar/bɑː/n．横杆；障碍物

26.qualification/ˈkwɔlifi ˈkeiʃən/n．资格，条件

27.eventually/i ˈventʃuəli/ad．最终，最后

28.critical/ ˈkritikəl/a．关键的；评论的，批评的；危急的

29.nurture/ ˈnəːtʃə/vt．养育，培养

30.implication/ˈimpli ˈkeiʃən/n．含义，暗示

31.specialize/ ˈspeʃəlaiz/vt．专门从事，专门研究

32.payoff 带来利益，获得成功；偿清

33.tremendous/tri ˈmendəs/a．极大的，巨大的

其他词汇

1.blip 暂时现象

2.refigure 改进，恢复

3.bolt 螺栓

4.dungaree 粗棉工装

疑难长句注解

1.American workers are busy...decline.（第一段）

本句中，narrative指唱衰美国制造业的那些言论，defy the narrative并非指有意识地对抗这些言论，而是说“使这些言论不攻自破”; supposedly可以译成“所谓的”, supposedly inevitable manufacturing decline指某些人认为制造业必然走向衰退。

2.They are the sum of...global economy.（第三段）

本句中，equation指complex of variable elements or factors（综合性因素）, refigure意为improve或restore，即“改进，恢复”。

3.And about those low-cost plants...past decade.（第三段）

本句主要从低劳动力成本的角度分析了美国制造业的回归。先进国家的制造业搬迁到发展中国家，是因为那里劳动力成本低。但是形势已经起了变化，在中国和印度，劳动力成本提高了。另外，在美国，公司和工会组织已经达成了妥协，比如工会答应不再罢工要求增加工资，这进一步降低了劳动力成本。

4.Suddenly the math on outsourcing...attractive.（第三段）

本句中，math不是指“数学”，因为本段上文在谈劳动力成本，这里the math on outsourcing应该指外包的成本，“没有吸引力”，指成本不再低，乃至于把零部件的制造外包到发展中国家的企业已经无利可图。

5.Dungarees and lunch pails...technologies.（第四段）

本句中，be out意为“过时，退出”; be in意为“入场，流行”; be centered on意为“集中于”。

译文

“美国制造”又回来了。美国正在爬出衰退，它看到其制造业增长的速度超过了其他发达国家。美国工人正忙着制造世界各地的顾客想购买的东西，这驳斥了所谓制造业不可避免衰退的论调。

仅仅过去几个月就已经看到了一些惊人的逆转。苹果公司决定在美国安装其Mac计算机生产线，沃尔玛说，它将在未来10年内增加500亿美元购买美国供应商的产品。空客公司将在亚拉巴马州建造新型JetBlue飞机。

一些经济学家争辩说，这一增长是商业周期的一个自然部分，而不能反映制造业领域的持续复苏。但我的论点是，过去三年的改观不是稍纵即逝的现象。它们是重建全球经济的各种综合力量导致的结果。由于获得油气的渠道增加，美国工厂越来越能获得廉价能源。对美国的海外公司来说，情况恰恰相反：全球范围的高油价转化为飞机和轮船运输的高成本。而且，那些所谓的低成本工厂又怎么样呢？中国和印度工人正在要求和得到更高的工资，而美国的公司在过去10年里却从工会那里得到很多妥协。突然，外包从成本上来说变得没有吸引力了。

今天，美国的工厂不再是喧闹的处所，过去，你的祖父在那里每分钟安装四个螺栓，每天工作八小时。粗布工作装和午餐盒也不存在了；计算机技能和专门培训是必需的，因为新的“美国制造”经济在很大程度上集中于各种尖端技术。美国公司的秘诀是领先全球竞争者发展新的制造技术，然后用这些技术在超级全自动生产的厂房内更有效地生产货物。这些未来的工厂有更多的机器，更少的工人。要求的条件只能更高：某些专家认为，雇员很快就会被要求有四年本科学位——这种从业资格最终也会成为许多其他国家的要求。

如果美国想要培育自己的制造业，增长就业岗位，了解这一新的形势就是至关重要的。这对教育工作者和政策制定者都有重要含义。“制造业正在复苏，但是它也正在演化成一个不同于多数人今天所了解的物种，”James Manyika说，他是麦肯锡全球研究所的所长，专门研究高科技领域。他说，“我们将会看到就业岗位的增加，但是人们不要期望增长太多，特别是在短期内。”虽然如此，如果美国能抓住这个机会，它所得到的回报将是巨大的。