新结构经济学:反思经济发展与政策的理论框架(增订版)
上QQ阅读APP看书,第一时间看更新

结语

新结构经济学强调要素禀赋、不同发展水平上产业结构的差异,以及经济中的各种扭曲带来的影响,这些扭曲来源于政策制定者过去对经济的不当干预,这些政策制定者对旧结构经济学的信念,使他们高估了政府在矫正市场失灵方面的能力。新结构经济学还指出了如下事实:华盛顿共识所倡导的政策常常未考虑发达国家与发展中国家间的结构性差异,也忽略了发展中国家对各种扭曲进行改革时的次优性质。

这里提出的新结构经济学试图构建一个具有普遍意义的框架,来理解人们观察到的、关于持续增长的各种特征事实背后的因果关系。具体而言,新结构经济学的目标如下:(1)建立一个分析架构,将发展中国家的要素禀赋和基础设施、发展水平,以及相应的产业、社会、经济结构等因素考虑在内;(2)分析政府与市场在不同发展水平上的作用,以及从一个水平向另一个水平的转换机理;(3)分析经济扭曲出现的原因,以及政府为退出扭曲应该采取的措施。过去几十年中,有一些分析框架曾主导着人们对于发展的思考,却同各国的经验事实鲜有联系。新结构经济学的努力方向,并不是用另一个意识形态主导的政策框架来替代它们,而是考虑各国的禀赋结构和发展水平,提出一条因国而异的、严谨的、有创见的、对于发展政策来说切实可靠的路线。这一框架强调,应更好地理解一个国家发展过程中不同发展水平上结构差异的影响,尤其是涉及适当的制度与政策,以及结构转变过程中私人部门面临的各种约束与激励的方面。

发展经济学的现状和全球危机对发展中国家经济的严重影响都强烈呼唤着一个新的框架来思考发展的问题。新结构经济学所提出的研究议程应该能够丰富人们的研究,深化人们对经济发展本质的理解。这将有助于低收入和中低收入国家实现动态的、可持续的、包容性的经济增长,并消除贫困。

参考文献

Acemoglu, D., S.Johnson, and J.A.Robinson.2001.“The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation, ”American Economic Review 91:1369—1401.

Aghion, P., and P.Howitt.1992.“A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction, ”Econometrica 60(2):323—351.

Barro, R.J.2009.“Government Spending Is No Free Lunch, ”The Wall Street Journal, January 22.

Becker, Gary S.1975.Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education.2nd edn.New York: Columbia University Press for NBER.

Caprio, G., and P.Honohan.2001.Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World.New York: World Bank and Oxford University Press.

Cardoso, E., and A.Helwege.1995.Latin America's Economy.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Carneiro, P., and J.J.Heckman.2003.“Human Capital Policy, ”IZA Discussion Papers 821, Institute for the Study of Labor(IZA).

Chang, P.K.1949.Agriculture and Industrialization.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Domar, E.1946.“Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment, ”Econometrica 14,(April):137—147.

Easterly, W.2001.The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists'Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Easterly, W., N.Loayza, and P.J.Montiel.1997.“Has Latin America's Post-Reform Growth Been Disappointing? ”World Bank Policy Research Paper 1708, World Bank, Washington, D.C., August.

Eichengreen, B., M.Mussa, G.Dell'Ariccia, E.Detragiache, G.M.Milesi-Ferretti, and A.Tweedie.1999.“Liberalizing Capital Movements: Some Analytical Issues, ”Economic Issues no.17.IMF, Washington, D.C.

Francesco, G., and M.Pagano.1991.“Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? —Tales of Two Small European Countries, ”In O.J.Blanchard and S.Fischer, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Furtado, C.1964.Development and Underdevelopment.Los Angeles: University of California Press.

——.1970.Economic Development of Latin America.London: Cambridge University Press.

Gerschenkron, A.1962.Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective: A Book of Essays.Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

Glaeser, E., and A.Shleifer.2002.“Legal Origins, ”Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(November):1193—1229.

Grossman, G.M., and E.Helpman.1994.“Endogenous Innovation in the Theory of Growth, ”Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(1):23—44.

Growth Commission.2008.“The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, ”Washington, D.C.

Harrison, A., and A.Rodríguez-Clare.2010.“Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries, ”In D.Rodrik(ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol.5.Amsterdam, The Netherlands: North-Holland, p.4039—4213.

Harrod, R.F.1939.“An Essay in Dynamic Theory, ”The Economic Journal 49(193):14—33.

Hausmann, R., D.Rodrik, and A.Velasco.2005.“Growth Diagnostics, ”In J.Stiglitz and N.Serra(eds.), The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance.Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hirschman, A.O.1958.The Strategy of Economic Development.New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Jones, C.I.1998.Introduction to Economic Growth.New York: W.W.Norton.

Jones, C.I., and P.M.Romer.2009.“The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital, ”NBER Working Paper Series 15094.

Ju, J., J.Y.Lin, and Y.Wang.2009.“Endowment Structures, Industrial Dynamics, and Economic Growth, ”Policy Research Working Papers Series 5055, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

Justman, M., and B.Gurion.1991.“Structuralist Perspective on the Role of Technology in Economic Growth and Development, ”World Development 19(9):1167—1183.

Kanbur, R.2009.“The Crisis, Economic Development Thinking, and Protecting the Poor, ”Presentation to the World Bank's Executive Board, July.

Krueger, A.1974.“The Political Economy of Rent-Seeking Society, ”American Economic Review 64(3):291—303.

Krugman, P.1979.“A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income, ”Journal of Political Economy 87(2):253—266.

——.1993.“Protection in Developing Countries, ”In R.Dornbusch(ed.), Policymaking in the Open Economy: Concepts and Case Studies in Economic Performance.New York: Oxford University Press,127—148.

Kuznets, S.1966.Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure and Spread.New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Lau, L.J., Y.Qian, and G.Roland.2000.“Reform without Losers: An Interpretation of China's Dual-track Approach to Transition, ”Journal of Political Economy 108(1):120—143.

Leibenstein, H.1957.Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth: Studies in the Theory of Economic Development.New York: Wiley.

Lewis, W.A.1954.“Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor, ”The Manchester School, May.

Lin, J.Y.2009a.Economic Development and Transition: Thought, Strategy, and Viability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

——.2009b.“Beyond Keynesianism, ”Harvard International Review 31(2):14—17.

Lin, J.Y., and H.Chang.2009.“DPR Debate: Should Industrial Policy in Developing Countries Conform to Comparative Advantage or Defy It? ”Development Policy Review 27(5):483—502.(Reprinted in chapter II of this volume.)

Lin, J.Y., and F.Li.2009.“Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Distortions in Developing Countries, ”Policy Research Working Paper 4906, World Bank, Washington, D.C., April.

Lin, J.Y., and C.Monga.2010.“The Growth Report and New Structural Economics, ”Policy Research Working Papers Series 5336, World Bank, Washington, D.C.(Reprinted in chapter II of this volume.)

——.2011.“DPR Debate: Growth Identification and Facilitation: The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change, ”Development Policy Review 29(3): 259—310.(Reprinted in chapter III of this volume.)

林毅夫、任若恩,“东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨”, 《经济研究》,2007年第8期,第4—12页。

Lin, J.Y., and P.Zhang.2009.“Industrial Structure, Appropriate Technology and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries, ”Policy Research Working Paper 4906, World Bank, Washington, D.C., April.

Lin, J.Y., X.Sun, and Y.Jiang.2009.“Towards a Theory of Optimal Financial Structure, ”Policy Research Working Papers Series 5038, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

Lucas Jr., R.E.1990.“Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? ”American Economic Review 80(2):92—96.

——.2002.Lectures on Economic Growth.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

McKinnon, R.I.1973.Money and Capital in Economic Development.Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution.

Monga, C.1997.L'argent des autresBanques et petites entreprises en Afrique: le cas du Cameroun.Paris: LDGJ-Montchretien.

Myrdal, G.1957.Economic Theory and Under-developed Regions.London: Duckworth.

Naughton, B.1995.Growing Out of Plan: Chinese Economic Reform 19781993.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Nurkse, R.1953.Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries.New York:Oxford University Press.

Osman-Gani, A.M.2004.“Human Capital Development in Singapore: An Analysis of National Policy Perspectives, ”Advances in Developing Human Resources 6(3):276—287.

Porter, M.E.1990.The Competitive Advantage of Nations.New York: Free Press.

Prebisch, R.1950.The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems. New York: United Nations.Reprinted in Economic Bulletin fo Latin America 7(1):1—22.

Ramsey, F.P.1928.“A Mathematical Theory of Saving, ”Economic Journal 38(152):543—559.

Ravallion, M.2009.“Evaluation in the Practice of Development, ”The World Bank Research Observer 24(1):29—53.

Rodrik, D.2004.“Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century, ”Cambridge, MA.[http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/unidosep.pdf].

Romer, P.M.1987.“Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization, ”American Economic Review 77(2):56—62.

——.1990.“Endogenous Technological Change, ”Journal of Political Economy 98(5, Part 2): The Problem of Development: A Conference of the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Systems, October: S71—S102.

Rosenstein-Rodan, P.1943.“Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, ”Economic Journal 111(210—211, June-September):202—211.

Rosenzweig, M.R., and K.I.Wolpin.1985.“Scientific Experience, Household Structure and Intergenerational Transfers: Farm Family Land and Labor Arrangements in Developing Countries, ”Quarterly Journal of Economics 100, Supplement.

Rostow, W.W.1990 [1960].The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto,3rd edn.New York: Cambridge University Press.

Schultz, T.W.1961.“Investments in Human Capital, ”American Economic Review 51(1):1—17.

Schumpeter, J., 1934.The Theory of Economic Development.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Shaw, E.1973.Financial Deepening in Economic Development.New York: Oxford University Press.

Singer, H.1950.“The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries, ”American Economic Review 40(May):473—485.

Subramanian, A., and D.Roy.2003.“Who Can Explain the Mauritian Miracle? Mede, Romer, Sachs, or Rodrik? ”In.D.Rodrik(ed.), In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth.Princeton: Princeton University Press,205—243.

Taylor, L.1983.Structuralist Macroeconomics: Applicable Models for the Third World.New York: Basic Books.

——.1991.Income Distribution, Inflation and Growth: Lectures on Structuralist Macroeconomic Theory.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

——.2004.Reconstructing Macroeconomics: Structuralist Proposals and Critiques of the Mainstream.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

UNCTAD Statistical Database.http://www.unctad.org/templates/page.asp? intItemID =2364&lang=1.

Williamson, J.1990.“What Washington Means by Policy Reform, ”In J.Williamson(ed.), Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.

——.2002.“Did the Washington Consensus Fail? ”[http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/papers/paper.cfm? ResearchID=488].

World Bank.2005.Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform. Washington, D.C.

World Bank.2010.“Research for Development: A World Bank Perspective on Future Directions for Research, ”Policy Research Working Paper 5437, Washington, D.C.