“两型社会”城市规模研究
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Abstract

At the end of 2012,the urbanization level of China was 52.6%,reaching average level of the world,but compared with that of developed country,the gap was great. At the same time,the unbalanced,uncoordinated and unsustainable extensive development model of Chinese urbanization is seriously hindered the upgrading and transformation of Chinese economic structure. Therefore,the report at 18th Party Congress put “The quality of urbanization should improve markedly”as a sign of “The economy should maintain sustainable and sound development”;and “Integrate urban and rural development”as one act of “Accelerating the improvement of the socialist market economy and the change of growth model”. Then again,the Central Economic Work Conference (2012) put forward:Actively and steadily promote urbanization,improving the quality of urbanization.

With the agglomeration effect,various elements are centralized in the city,and with the bulgy expansion of cities,many questions have arisen to be answered urgently. How will the scale of cities impact on the economic efficiency,resources consumption and environment quality? How large scale of city is optimal or reasonable?There are lots of researches about the optimal city scale or reasonable city scale from the economics view and some theories have been put forward. In order to carry out the Scientific Outlook on Development,“Two-oriented Society”was proposed in 2007 in China,and the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(CZT) city cluster were approved as a national experimental zone for comprehensive supporting reform to build a “Two-oriented Society”(resource saving and environmentally friendly society). Then,how large of city scale is conducive to the building of “Two-oriented Society”? This is an important academic issue to be discussed deeply.

In this study,we take the city scale of our country’ urbanization as the theme,combining with the practice of “Two-oriented society”construction,in light of the theory of Mass Effect,Economies of Scale,Systems Engineering,and so on,based on the theory of Barton’s Cost-benefit Curve,this study tries to discuss three relationships and two cases.

The three relationships go as follows:improving the theoretical models of resource consumption-city scale,and environment quality-city scale,then trying to construct a theoretical framework of “Two-oriented society”-city scale on the basis of above theoretical models. To explore the empirical relationship of the three theoretical models,a quantitative analysis is applied,taking the cities at prefecture level and above as sample,providing a theoretical support for “resource saving”and “environmentally friendly”city constructing. And the two cases are the compare of the construction effect of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration and CZT city cluster. To study the optimal or reasonable city scale from the view of resource,environment,and the construction effect of “Two-oriented society”,this research will develop existing theories and give some helpful policy suggestions for the construction of “Two-oriented Society”,as well as the sustainable development of city or megalopolis of our country.

The main content of this book is organized as follows:introduction,theoretical study,statistics analysis,econometric analysis,and conclusion.

Firstly,in the introduction,this book shows its realistic background,meaningfulness,research methods,contributions,research framework and so on.

Secondly,the theoretical study includes:literature review,identifying the influence factors of China’s urbanization process,building measurement index system of comprehensive city scale,constructing a theoretical framework of resource consumption-city scale,environment quality-city scale,and “Tow-oriented society”-city scale,etc.

Based on existing literature,the origin thought of “Two-oriented society”is reviewed,and the connotations of “Two-oriented society”are discussed,which constitutes the theoretical starting point of this research.

The study of China’s urbanization process and its’ influence factors are the historical background of this research. Based on the historical influence factors of urbanization,some suggests are put forward for the New-type urbanization of China to develop stably as follows:We should do “top-level-design”and adhere to the scientific outlook on development,to improve the level of development of productive forces;we should coordinate the relationship between urban and rural areas and improve the quality of urbanization,to promote the integration of urban and rural development.

The defect of single representation method (city scale is expressed by city non-agricultural population only) for the city scale is analyzed. Then,from the city population scale,economies scale and land scope three level,comprehensive city scale measurement index system is constructed,which is one of the theoretical contributions of this book.

The conclusions of theoretical analysis are as follows:the theoretical model of resource consumption -city scale is a N-shaped curve,the theoretical model of environment quality-city scale is an inverted N-shaped curve,and the theoretical model of “Two-oriented society”-city scale is more complex,but simplified to N or U-shaped curve. Three theoretical models constitute the theoretical foundation of this study,especially,exploring the city scale based on “Two-oriented society”construction,is another contribution of this book.

Thirdly,the statistics study involves:the comparative study of the city population scale,economies scale and land scope of our country,the comparison of the effectiveness of “Two-oriented society”construction,which is the realistic background of this research.

The classification standard to economies scale and land scope of city is discussed,which is another contribution.

The space distribution of city scale hierarchical structure is discussed based on different method from the national and subregional perspective.

The evolution of hierarchical structure of spatial distribution of city scale and the evolution of city system type are discussed based on different method from the time dimension,with the related data of 1984,1996,and 2011.

The construction effect of“Two-oriented society”of Two Comprehensive Reform Pilot Area and different regions are compared. Get the following conclusions:The establishment of the “Two-oriented society”comprehensive experimental area is favor for “two oriented society”construction,the construction effect of CZT city cluster is better than that of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration,and the base for “two oriented society”construction of CZT city cluster is better than that of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration. In the regional space,the construction effect of “Two-oriented society”is decreasing from east to west;in time dimension,from the “Two-oriented society”policy implementation on,the construction effect of national and four regions continue to decline. The construction effect of five city clusters involved in this research is better than that of four regions.

Fourth,Econometric research includes the causal relationship between the level of productivity and the level of urbanization,an empirical study of three theoretical models,which is the core of this book.

The result of econometric analysis showing as follow:“The level of productivity is the Granger cause of the level of urbanization”,and it is one-way causal relationship,when the level of productivity improves 1 percentage,the level of urbanization will raise 3.115 percentages.

Based on the three theoretical models (resource consumption-city scale,environment quality-city scale,“Tow-oriented society”-city scale),uses panel data from 2007 to 2011 of China,the econometric analysis is made,which results in empirical model of the nation and four regions.

Compared with the city population scale (represented by the non-agricultural population only),the comprehensive index of city scale can improve the fitting degree and stability of empirical model,which is the advantage of the comprehensive index of city scale method. But as a dimensionless number,the comprehensive index of city scale cannot show the city population scale which people used to,so it is difficult to popularize,the defect is obviously also.

The final part is conclusion,which summarizes the main research results,and points out the contribution and deficiencies of the research,and suggests the direction of subsequent research.