Abstract

Economic growth theory is the theory that explains the laws of economic growth and the constraints that influence it. The drivers of economic growth are one of the main concerns of scholars. From natural resources,physical capital and labour, which were originally proposed in classical economics,to a series of factors such as technological progress, human capital and technological innovation mentioned in neoclassical and development economics are widely recognized. Of these, the natural resource element was the first mentioned by economists as the basis for economic growth. Although natural resources were not included in later classical models of economic growth theory,it still is treated as the material basis of economic growth.In mainstream economic growth models,factors such as capital,technology,human capital and institutions are the variables that influence economic growth. The problem of resources is interpreted as a problem of production costs,and natural resources are able to substitute each other or be replaced by other factors of production, thus natural resources are treated as exogenous variables. As the world's population expands,resources and energy are in short supply, the ecological environment deteriorates and social conflicts intensify, the harmonious development of resources and the environment has gradually become the consensus of the entire human race. And the study of the relationship between natural resource constraints and economic growth has become a topic of great interest in recent economic research. Although China has achieved rapid economic development and rapid increase in urbanization, the problem of resources and environment has become prominent,and the contradiction between economic growth and natural resource constraints has become more and more prominent. The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the harmonious development of resources, environment and economy, and have written the construction of ecological civilisation into the report of the 18th Party Congress.

There is a more significant problem of transformation of resourcebased regions in China. In recent years, resource-based regions such as Northeastern areas in China, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang have faced different degrees of difficulties in development and economic transformation due to factors such as a sharp decline in resource reserves, low international energy prices, supply-side structural reform and a shift in the economic development model from investment-driven to domestic demand-driven. Inner Mongolia is a typical resource-based region in China,with 26.24% of the country's coal reserves,making it the first resource-based region in China. Inner Mongolia has achieved rapid socio-economic development through the mining of coal resources,but at the same time, resource and environmental problems are becoming increasingly prominent. The waste of water resources and land resources associated with coal mining activities has become a serious problem as a result of the extensive exploitation of coal resources. In addition,the distribution of water resources in Inner Mongolia is very uneven in terms of region and time, and does not match the distribution of population and arable land,etc. Inner Mongolia's economic growth is subject to different constraints of natural resources. How to avoid over-exploitation and utilization of natural resources as well as natural resource constraints and achieve harmonious development of resources,environment and economy are important issues faced by resource-based regions. From these phenomena,clarifying the effects of natural resources in economic growth, understanding the types of natural resource constraints, exploring the ways in which natural resource constraints affect economic growth and analysing the relationship between natural resources and economic growth and addressing the challenges faced by resource-based regions in China are of great practical significance to the transformation of resource-based regions and the coordinated development of resources and the environment in China.

In view of this, this book takes Inner Mongolia, a coal resourcebased region with abundant coal resources, lack of water resources and the largest grassland（arable land）area in China, as the research object. Coal resources,land resources and water resources are taken as the main research themes. From the perspective of natural resource constraints,a comprehensive evaluation system of natural resource carrying capacity is constructed,the carrying capacity of natural resources is analyzed,the constraints of different natural resources on economic growth are reviewed, the mechanism of natural resource constraints affecting economic growth is analysed, and relevant propositions are put forward. On the basis of sorting out the impact of different natural resource constraints on economic growth, natural resources are incorporated into the economic growth model and the impact of different natural resource constraints on economic growth is studied empirically. Using the findings，the book seeks ways to alleviate the natural resource constraints in the long-term economic growth of resource-based regions and proposes corresponding policy recommendations. The main work of this book is as follows：

Define and elaborate on the concepts related to natural resources and economic growth for the study of this book, and sort out the theoretical evolution of the relationship between natural resources and economic growth to provide a theoretical basis for the study of this book（Chapter 2）.

Analyse the natural resource constraint situation in the economic growth of Inner Mongolia. By constructing a comprehensive evaluation index of natural resource carrying capacity and applying the entropy-weighted TOPSIS model,the three natural resource carrying capacities and the comprehensive carrying capacity of the three natural resources are analyzed. At the same time, relevant indicators are screened by combining the actual situation of land resources and water resources utilization in Inner Mongolia. Based on international, national and local resource management guidelines, industry standards or relevant research results, the threshold range of red, orange and yellow detection and warning indicators is divided. An early warning analysis of the natural resource carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia is conducted to discover the factual characteristics of natural resource constraints in Inner Mongolia and to provide a realistic basis for the study of the mechanism of natural resource constraints affecting economic growth（Chapter 3）.

This study examines the mechanism of natural resource constraints in economic growth. On the one hand,the mechanism of natural resource constraints on economic growth in Inner Mongolia is examined in a categorical manner,and natural resources as an input factor is incorporated into the economic growth model to discuss the role of different total natural resource constraints on economic growth separately;On the other hand,a comprehensive examination of the mechanisms by which natural resource constraints affect economic growth in Inner Mongolia,based on a review of the existing relevant research literature,proposes four propositions and dynamically analyses the attraction and control of economic growth factors due to the abundance of natural resources,as well as the different impact paths of the resulting structural constraints on economic growth,to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical analysis（Chapter 4）.

An empirical analysis of the impact of natural resource constraints on economic growth in Inner Mongolia. There are two parts,one is a disaggregated examination（Chapter 5）. Natural resources are included as a factor input in different economic growth models. Using panel data from various leagues and cities in Inner Mongolia over the years,the impact of each of the three natural resources on economic growth and the magnitude of their resistance to growth due to limited aggregates are discussed to provide a basis for exploring countermeasures to alleviate resource constraints. The second is a comprehensive examination（Chapter 6）. This chapter examines the attraction and control of factors of economic growth due to natural resource endowment advantages and the different pathways through which the resulting structural resource-based constraints act on economic growth by testing the propositions presented in Chapter 4. An explanation of the causes of the resource constraints is provided to justify countermeasures to break the natural resource constraints.

The main conclusions drawn in this book are summarised and corresponding policy recommendations are made to alleviate natural resource constraints in long-term economic growth and to promote sustained economic growth（Chapter 7）.

The book draws the following main conclusions from a categorical and comprehensive examination of the analysis of Inner Mongolia's natural resource carrying capacity,the mechanisms by which natural resource constraints affect economic growth and an empirical examination of the impact of natural resource constraints on economic growth：

First,from the analysis of natural resources carrying capacity found that:（1）Inner Mongolia coal resources carrying capacity from weak to strong,the total limit of short-term constraints is not obvious.（2）The bearing capacity of water resources has changed from weak to strong,but water resources are still scarce and water pollution is heavy. From the early warning analysis of the water resources carrying capacity test, it is found that the per capita water resources possession index is below the red warning line in most years, which means that Inner Mongolia has a serious lack of water resources per capita. The shortage of water resources has become a“bottleneck”that restricts sustainable economic and social development. The indicator of water quality standards in water function zones is in the red warning zone in most years,which means that the water resources in Inner Mongolia are seriously polluted.（3）The carrying capacity of land resources has changed from a low level to a high level. From the analysis of the early warning of land resource carrying capacity testing,it was found that there was no early warning risk for either the arable land area per capita or the construction land area per capita in cities. Among them, urban construction land per capita has been increasing year by year,indicating a shift in land resource input from rural to urban areas. There is a need to reasonably allocate urban and rural inputs of land resources in the process of urbanisation and to maximise urban land use efficiency on the basis of meeting safe agricultural production needs. The area of ecological land in Inner Mongolia（except for 2018-2020）is on a downward trend, gradually approaching from the yellow warning range to the orange warning range, reflecting that the gradual deterioration of the ecological environment in Inner Mongolia has been reversed since 2018 and has been repaired and improved in recent years,but is still within the yellow warning range.（4）The structure of coal,water and land resources affects the comprehensive carrying capacity of the three natural resources. From the perspective of the interaction between natural resources, although the carrying capacity of coal resources and water resources in Inner Mongolia was low from 2000 to 2012, the carrying capacity of land resources was higher compared to coal resources and water resources, so under the combined influence of the three natural resources,the level of the combined carrying capacity of the three natural resources from 2000 to 2012 was higher than that of coal resources,i.e. the carrying capacity of land resources pulled up the The comprehensive bearing capacity of resources; From 2013 to 2020, although the bearing capacity of coal resources firstly increases sharply and then decreases, the bearing capacity of water resources and land resources increases relatively faster,especially the bearing capacity of water resources changes from the lowest in 2000 -2012 to the highest in 2016-2018. Under the combined effect of the three forces, the combined carrying capacity fluctuates and increases from 2013 to 2020,gradually rising to a higher carrying capacity level.

Secondly, a categorical examination of the study of the impact of natural resource constraints on economic growth found that the elasticity of the three natural resource inputs to output was positive,indicating that the three natural resources played a positive role in promoting economic growth. That is, it shows that resource use can drive economic growth. This also explains why the rapid economic growth of resource-based regions is based on a huge consumption of resources.

At the same time,the positive elasticity of natural resource inputs to output,i.e. the positive correlation between the two, explains, on the other hand,that a reduction in natural resources,such as an absolute reduction in depletable resources and a relative reduction in renewable resources（renewable capacity less than the demand for economic growth） leads to a corresponding proportional reduction in output, all else being equal. The negative effect of reduced resources on economic growth is mainly due to the fact that a reduction in the quantity（total）of resources reduces the supply of factors that drive economic growth. In the long run, therefore, resource scarcity will ultimately constrain economic growth. From the measurement of the“growth resistance”of different natural resources,it is found that the size of the“growth resistance”of coal and water to economic growth is 0.0069 and 0.00074 respectively；the size of the“growth resistance”of land resources to the agricultural sector and the non-agricultural sector of the economy are 0.0069 and 0.00074 respectively. The size of the“resistance to growth”is 0.0019 and 0.025 for the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors respectively. This is the natural resource constraint that economies, especially resource-based economies,will face. However,economic growth ultimately depends on a combination of technological progress, resource consumption rates,and regeneration rates. Technological progress allows for a reduction in resource waste and environmental pollution in the extraction of resources,while increasing the efficiency of resource use, thus alleviating the degree of natural resource constraints in the long term economic growth process.

Thirdly,a comprehensive examination of the study of the impact of natural resource constraints on economic growth found: firstly, the exploitation of abundant natural resources drives short-term regional economic growth due to the superiority of regional natural resource endowments;Secondly,the development of natural resource industries will attract and control economic growth factors due to the superiority of regional natural resource endowments and the influence of short-term natural resource dividend factors,resulting in an unbalanced distribution structure of resources among different industries,bringing structural constraints on resources,causing industrial structure deformation and the phenomenon of resource industry dependence; Then, natural resource industry dependence affects the core input factors of economic growth,such as education investment activities, science and technology investment activities, manufacturing, and water-dependent industries, resulting in a“crowding-out effect”. This can reduce the contribution of these indicators to economic growth and is detrimental to long-term economic growth；Natural resource dependence will increase physical capital investment while reinforcing government intervention in the economy. Natural resource dependence will strengthen the government's intervention in the economy and increase physical capital investment, which is not conducive to long-term economic growth;At the same time,it is found that the coal industry dependence,which is a result of the abundance of coal resources in Inner Mongolia,has a significant negative impact on water resources,as well as on the water environment and land resources,and increases the negative impact of the lack of water resources on land resources,thus negatively affecting economic growth; Finally, natural resource industry dependence ultimately has a negative impact on long-term economic growth through the transmission pathways described above.

In exploring the different pathways through which resource constraints affect economic growth in resource-based regions,this book focuses on the impact of government action on the different pathways. The analysis finds that excessive government intervention in the economy has a negative impact on education input activities, science and technology input activities, manufacturing development, water abundance and land resources. In the empirical analysis,a cross multiplier between the government intervention indicator and the natural resource dependency indicator is introduced,and it is found that under moderate government intervention,moderate dependency on natural resources is conducive to the increase of education input,science and technology input,manufacturing development, water resources and land resources abundance. This also reflects that under moderate government intervention, resource-based regions need to shift their resource-based returns to other productive capital, exploit their natural resource advantages, benefit from natural resources, successfully avoid the natural resource curse phenomenon and achieve long-term stable economic and social development.

Based on the results of the above-mentioned research, this book puts forward proposals to alleviate natural resource constraints in the process of long-term economic growth and achieve coordinated development of natural resources and the economy in the following five areas:（1）scientific and rational use and development of resources;（2）improvement of technological innovation and resource efficiency;（3）industrial diversification to avoid dependence on natural resource industries and break through the natural resource constraint;（4）institutional innovation and reasonable distribution of the“resource dividend”; and（5） moderate government intervention in the economy.

The study of the relationship between natural resources and economic growth is currently an important topic of research in the field of international economics,and scholars have made a rich discussion in this regard. The author has done a lot of research and extensions based on the existing research results. The innovation of this book is mainly reflected in the following three aspects：

Firstly,based on a review of the existing studies on the carrying capacity of natural resources, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed to analyse the carrying capacity of natural resources in Inner Mongolia,taking into account four dimensions: natural resources, ecological environment,socio-economic and population development.

Secondly,in the analysis of the impact of land resources on economic growth in Inner Mongolia,the assumption of constant land resources in Romer's（2001）model is extended to measure the resistance to growth of urban and rural economies in Inner Mongolia respectively.

Thirdly, existing studies have mostly analyzed the impact path of natural resources on economic growth from one aspect to another. For example,the exploitation of exhaustible resources has a crowding-out effect on manufacturing,education,investment and savings, which in turn affects long-term economic growth,ignoring the combined effects of natural resource exploitation activities and other natural resources on economic growth. This book takes into account the actual situation in Inner Mongolia and argues that the exploitation of abundant natural resources attracts and controls economic growth factors,resulting in an imbalance in the resource structure and a crowding-out effect on related activities that drive economic growth. Therefore, based on the existing research literature, this book proposes a hypothetical proposition based on the logic of the“crowding-out effect”to explore the pathways through which natural resource constraints affect economic growth from a dynamic perspective.

The main shortcomings of this book are the following：

Firstly,in measuring the resistance to economic growth due to different natural resource constraints,the Romer（2001）model is extended based on the“resistance to growth”calculation proposed by Nordhaus （1992）. The Cobb-Douglas production function is also used to analyse the resource constraints. The assumptions such as constant returns to scale are not consistent with reality. Currently,most relevant studies use this method to analyse natural resource growth resistance. Relaxing the assumptions and constructing theoretical models that are more in line with the reality is a direction worth exploring.

Secondly,in Chapter 6, a multiple linear regression model is constructed to synthesize the factors that may have been missed when analysing the impact of natural resource constraints on economic growth. As there are many factors affecting economic growth, this book mainly considers factors such as technological innovation capability,physical capital investment, coal resources, water resources, land resources, resource dependency,manufacturing inputs,infrastructure construction level,and government intervention based on the existing research literature; Policy and institutional factors are not considered,and this is a direction for further research in this book.

Thirdly,this book considers resource constraints as the main variable affecting the economic growth of resource-based regions and focuses on the impact of natural resources on economic growth. It does not fully consider the evolution of regional economic growth when technological innovation,scientific and technological progress,institutions,markets and other factors come together, and this is one of the issues that this book addresses.