摘要

中国当前正在大力倡导的“一带一路倡议”构想，正好契合了天然气在世界一次能源中比例逐步上升的时期。地处“丝绸之路经济带”的里海—中亚地区，由于其地缘政治“心脏地带”和油气资源禀赋富足的双重特点，成为当代国际地缘政治和能源博弈的焦点。欧盟于2008年推出的旨在将里海—中亚地区的天然气输往欧洲的“南部天然气走廊”管道方案，引发了各相关国家、大国以及波及国之间的一场激烈而又旷日持久的能源地缘政治大博弈，推动着里海—中亚各国以及欧、俄、美、中国、中东、南亚等复杂的双边或多边关系的转变和演化，其涉及的国家之多，引起的连锁反应之广，在当代国际外交生活中是罕见的。本书全面论述了“南部天然气走廊”方案的由来和进程，详细探讨了有关各国之间围绕着该方案所展开的外交博弈，在此基础上提出了中国所应采取的能源外交战略和对策。

具体地说，全文的结构和框架安排如下：

绪言部分介绍了研究“南部天然气走廊”的目的和意义，指出本书选择“南部天然气走廊”作为研究课题，就在于围绕着该管道的博弈，几乎囊括了全球所有天然气利益的相关方。解剖这个“麻雀”，有助于我国准确认知和预判当代世界能源格局的发展变化，在此基础上有针对性地制定和实施天然气外交战略，营造有利国内天然气供应安全的国际环境。

第一章全面论述了世界天然气及其管道的发展现状和天然气地缘分布及其与地缘政治的相互影响。在此基础上，重点指出天然气管道运输已经成为国际天然气贸易的主要方式和天然气地缘政治的主要载体，因而天然气地缘政治博弈也就集中地表现为管道博弈，欧盟的“南部天然气走廊”方案就是这种管道博弈的典型代表。

第二章论述了“南部天然气管道”的背景、进程及其前景，指出欧盟推出“南部天然气走廊”的动因在于其天然气对外依存度的日益企高，尤其是对进口俄罗斯天然气的过度依赖。为了实施天然气进口多元化的战略，欧盟在进入21世纪之初就筹划了两条从里海—中亚地区通往欧洲的天然气管道，即“南高加索管道”和“纳布科管道”。2008年欧盟正式推出“南部走廊”方案以后，经过一系列的遴选和整合，最后确定由“南高加索管道”、“跨安纳托利亚管道”和“跨亚德里亚海管道”3条管线构成管网系统。不过，该方案是否能够顺利推进，还要取决于气源地和输气量的解决态势以及地缘政治的博弈态势。

第三章论述了里海—中亚国家围绕“南部天然气走廊”所开展的外交博弈，指出里海—中亚国家目前有东西南北4个天然气博弈方向，分别体现了俄罗斯、欧美、中国和伊朗、印度、巴基斯坦的博弈倾向，其中的焦点是北向俄罗斯与西向欧美之间的博弈，“南部天然气走廊”就是这一焦点的表现。尽管里海—中亚5个资源国家均被欧盟列为了“南部走廊”的气源国，但是目前仅有阿塞拜疆一国确定为“南部走廊”供气，而土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦和伊朗虽也有意为“南部走廊”供气，但是却因为里海的法律地位问题而受到扼制，伊朗并且还有核制裁问题的困扰。

第四章论述了欧、美、俄三方对里海—中亚能源的竞争态势以及围绕着“南部走廊”而展开的外交博弈。近十余年里，欧盟通过大力开展与里海—中亚国家的管道外交，不但取得了“南高加索管道”扩建竣工、“跨安纳托利亚管道”和“跨亚得里亚海管道”即将建成的成果，而且还在积极筹划建设“跨里海天然气管道”。俄罗斯则为了保持在里海—中亚天然气管道出口中的主导地位和对欧盟天然气市场的垄断地位，先后推出了“蓝溪管道”、“南溪管道”和“土耳其流管道”等方案，不但在很大程度上对“南部走廊”进行了成功的反制，而且还对欧盟国家达到了分化的效果。美国从全球战略的需要出发，对“南部走廊”鼎力襄助并为此积极开展外交斡旋，希冀借此达到控制里海—中亚地区并压缩俄罗斯战略空间的目的。

第五章在分析中国天然气的供需现状、“南部天然气走廊”给中国带来的挑战和机遇的基础上，提出了中国所应采取的天然气外交战略和对策，指出我国从2007年开始进口天然气之后，对外依存度迅速增高到30%以上。为保障天然气供应安全，我国开展了卓有成效的地缘政治博弈和天然气外交活动，初步形成了西向“中亚—中国天然气管道”、北向“中俄天然气管道”、南向“中缅天然气管道”和海运液化气四大进口通道的多元化战略格局，基本满足了国内快速增长的消费需求。但是，由于里海—中亚地区既是中国西部的安全屏障，也是中国天然气进口的主要来源地，因而如果欧美通过“南部天然气走廊”将势力深入到里海—中亚腹地，将对中国造成地缘政治和天然气来源的双重挑战。不过，“南部走廊”也给中国带来了一些机遇，包括俄罗斯天然气西输欧洲受限会转而向东寻求与中国合作，俄罗斯对“南部走廊”的反制也会减轻中国在中亚国家进口天然气的竞争压力。在这种形势下，中国应该充分利用好当前时机，以优化西向、深化北向、强化南向、柔化海路的战略思路，抓紧完善自己四大天然气进口通道的战略格局，以确保国内天然气的供应安全，为我国建设生态文明和美丽中国而提供坚实的能源保障和支撑。

关键词：里海—中亚；南部天然气走廊；天然气管道；地缘政治博弈；能源外交

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative is now being vigorously promoted by China,which has been fitting the increasing period of natural gas as a proportion of the world's primary energy.The Caspian Sea and Central Asia,which is on the Silk Road Economic Belt,is the focus of contention by the view of geopolitics and energy game because of its heartland position and abundant energy.The SouthernGas Corridor in 2008 by the EU,which is to carry the gas of the Caspian and Central Asia to the European countries,causes the competition among the surrounding countries,related countries and the great powers,and also it effects bilateral relations and multilateral relation of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia counties,the European countries,the Middle East and the South Asia countries,the Russia,the US and China.This book discusses the origin and the evolution of the SouthernGas Corridor,explored the diplomatic games among these countries,and then proposes some suggestions of China's energy diplomacy strategy.

The Introduction is mainly about the purpose and significance of the study for the SouthernGas Corridor.The diplomatic games with this gas pipeline of the countries involve nearly all stakeholders of the natural gas all over the world.To make a study of this gas pipeline,could help China to prejudge the development of world energy structure,and also could help China to carry out favorable gas diplomatic measures.

Chapter one discusses the current situation of gas and gas pipe line around the world,and the interplay between geographical distribution of natural gas and the geopolitics.The pipeline transport of natural gas has already become the key way ofthe world gas trade and the main carrier of the gas geopolitics.Accordingly,the gas diplomatic games mainly center on the gas pipeline diplomatic games,and the SouthernGas Corridor is the typical representative.

Chapter two expounds the background,the development and the perspective of the SouthernGas Corridor.The Southern Corridor is promoted by EU actively,because of EU's increasing dependence on external natural gas,especially on the natural gas of Russia.The EU has made great efforts to realize the diversification imports of natural gas,and started planning two pipelines between the Caspian Sea and Central Asia and Europe from the beginning of 21stcentury.The two pipelines are South Caucasus Pipeline and NabuccoGas Pipeline.The Southern Corridor was proposed by EU in 2008,and then it is finally confirmed that the pipeline network concludes three pipelines,which are South Caucasus Pipeline,Trans-AnatolianGas Pipeline and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline.Whether the Southern Corridor could proceed smoothly,is determined by the gas supply countries,the gas transmission volume and the diplomatic games among the related countries.

Chapter three analyses the diplomatic games among the five Caspian Sea and Central Asia countries including Azerbaijan,Turkmenistan,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan and Iran.The four preference directions（eastward,westward,northward and southward）of these five countries represent the four different diplomatic games,which embodies the game tendencies of Russia,Europe and the United States,China and Iran,India,and Pakistan.The core of it is with Russia for northward and with the EU and the US for westward.Although these five countries are all listed as the gas supply countries for the Southern Corridor,only Azerbaijan has made sure to be the supply.Turkmenistan,Kazakhstan and Iran would like to be the supply coun tries,but they are restricted because of the Caspian Sea problem.In addition,Iran is restricted due to the nuclear sanction.

Chapter four analyses the diplomatic games among EU,the US and Russia,and their competition for energy of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia and the Southern Corridor.In recent ten years,EU has made great diplomatic activities with the Caspian Sea and Central Asia countries,has built three pipelines and plans for the Trans-Caspian Pipeline.Russia has proposed the Blue StreamGas Pipeline,the South StreamGas Pipeline and the Turkish StreamGas Pipeline,in order to maintain monopoly of natural gas for European market.The US also gives support for the Southern Corridor in order that it could realize global strategy and limit Russia's influence on the Caspian Sea and Central Asia countries.

Chapter five discusses the current situation of China's natural gas,and the challenges and opportunities of the SouthernGas Corridor for China.The external dependence of China's gas import is growing increasingly from 2008,and now is up to 30%.For gas supply security,China has carried out great diplomatic activities,and now has built four passageways,which is Central Asia-ChinaGas Pipeline,Sino-RussiaGas Pipeline,Sino-Myanmar Pipeline and LiquefiedGas by sea.The Caspian Sea and Central Asia is the political security area and the main gas import area for China,and thus the Southern Corridor may make challenges for China owing to the influence of the US and EU.Meanwhile,it may make opportunity for China Because Russia may strengthen cooperation with China when its gas export to EU is limited.As a result,China should improve its energy strategy and gas import pipeline structure to ensure China's energy security.

Key Words:the Caspian Sea and Central Asia; the SouthernGas Corridor;Gas Pipeline; GeopoliticsGame; Energy Diplomacy