From Local Problems to Ecological Civilization

The concept of sustainable future has begun to gather pace in China as it becomes a leader in providing solutions

Dennis Pamlin

Dennis Pamlin works with companies and government as a strategic economic, technology and innovation advisor. He is a senior advisor at RISE (Research Institutes of Sweden), Senior associate at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, fellow at the Research Center of Journalism and Social Development at Renmin University and a columnist at China Watch Institute.

The 40 years of reform and opening-up in China that Deng Xiaoping set in motion when he initiated the open-door policy back in 1978 coincides closely with the development of modern environmental history. During these 40 years, the world moved through three approaches to environmental sustainability.

The three approaches to environmental sustainability represent different combinations of focus and actions, where the world has moved from local focus and incremental action via global focus and incremental action to a global focus with transformative action.

During the first phase, the focus was on local challenges and incremental actions. The dominating belief was that environmental problems were a passing phase during modernization. It was perhaps best illustrated by the environmental Kuznets curve that most neo-classical economists, policymakers and business leaders had embraced. This curve illustrates the idea that the level of environmental problems initially increased with increased GDP;then as the GDP reached a certain level, the environmental degradation reached its maximum point and began to decline.

The Kuznets curve was, and is, a correct representation of many local problems related to sanitation and local pollution. The response to the problems tended to be end-of-pipe technologies where pollution was removed through the introduction of chimneys, pipes and filters. Incremental improvements in existing systems were enough to ensure that the problems were eliminated or at least moved and diluted.

During this time, China's opening-up policy had just begun and, as with all countries at that stage of development, the main focus was on acceleration of economic development, not environmental protection.

Over time, it became clear that the Kuznets curve had fundamental flaws. Overall resource use did not decrease with increased GDP, and biodiversity was reduced and never increased again. More than anything, ozone depletion brought the world into the next phase. The ozone hole became a global problem and it became obvious that a global focus was required to solve it. It did not matter where on the planet the ozone depleting substances were emitted, so global collaboration was required.

Even when the focus shifted from local to global, the actions remained incremental. The reason was that the solutions were technical. Everything could stay the same, only the cooling agents had to change. The success of such a simple approach is likely one of the key reasons why progress on reducing global emissions and halting global biodiversity loss have been so slow. Instead of developing strategies based on the complex solutions needed, there was a tendency to try to copy the success of the tools and approaches that helped reduce the ozone depleting substances.

During this time, China's exports had begun to rapidly accelerate. Still the implications for global environmental work were not very significant. China built capacity for manufacturing and embarked on the journey that made it the factory of the world.

In the third phase, the one we recently entered, the lack of progress in addressing the climate challenge resulted in a shift in focus toward global action. In Paris, the world came together for

the first time and agreed to try to aim to limit the average rise in global tempreture to below 1.5 °C. Before this, the agreed measures were more vague and commitments focused on incremental reductions. This third phase is when China begun to move to center stage both as a provider of the solutions needed and as a science-based voice in support of global collaboration.

In Europe and the US, more sustainable solutions were often sold at a premium price to a middle class that used green consumption as a way of demonstrating their commitment to green values. While this might be admirable in some ways, it meant that sustainable solutions were seen as a luxury that only those willing to pay a premium could afford.

China surprised many by starting to manufacture compact fluorescent light bulbs that were so affordable that it made no economic sense to keep the old incandescent lights. Many were still skeptical and the companies in the West that made compact CFLs tried to block imports from China by lobbying for extremely high import tariffs. This resulted in a situation where China and international environmental organizations begun working side by side to help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

Then things begun to move fast. In a collaborative approach where Germany provided a market for solar panels and China brought down prices though industrial-scale manufacturing, the world witnessed a revolution. Solar power, dismissed as an unpractical luxury, became a mainstream solution at the beginning of the 21stcentury.

While most Western countries were stuck in old industrial structures that resisted change, China began to deliver energy efficient products, renewable energy solutions and electric vehicles. China also began to accelerate digital solutions and smart apps that helped accelerate a world-leading sharing economy.

What is important to note is that the long-term shift toward an open economy took about two decades before it began to deliver significant results. This is something we should keep in mind as we look ahead.

On the 40thanniversary of the open-door policy, it is also appropriate to reflect on the coming 40 years in China and beyond. China has a number of interesting goals that can help us get an understanding of what role it might have over the coming decades.

First, it has a moderately well-off society where economic prosperity is capable of moving most of the population into comfortable means. The Chinese government aims to deliver this around 2020, on the eve of the 100thanniversary of the founding the Chinese Communist Party. By this date, China is expected to have very little extreme poverty left.

The next goal is to become a great modern socialist country by around 2049, something that would coincide with the 100thanniversary of the founding the People's Republic of China.

These two goals will be achieved during a period of accelerated technological development, rapid changes in values and a geopolitical shift toward Asia, and, China, in particular.

The need to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and radically improve resource efficiency must take place during this time as the world will move billions into the middle class and the global population will grow from today's approximately 7 billion to about 10 billion, an increase of more than 40 percent.

China will be at the very center when the world must find transformative solutions that allow us to move, live and eat in a way that does not destroy the planet or result in conflicts over resources. Instead of only seeing improvement in old technologies like cars, buildings and crops, we can expect to see digital solutions, drones, 4D-printers, biomimicry-based construction and nutrition based on health — all shaped by new values and business models.

Perhaps even more interesting, but less discussed, is that China today also has begun to discuss the concept of an ecological civilization. Assuming a similar timeline as we say from the opendoor policy, we could expect China be at the center stage when the world moves beyond the industrial civilization that has dominated for the last 300 years.

How the world will look is impossible to know, but a few key trends and values will probably play an important role as they are prominent in many of the discussions about an ecological civilization today.

Future generations will play a more important role as emerging eco-civilization will incorporate the welfare and possibilities provided to future generations. Irreversible changes and risks that threaten human civilization will likely play an important role.

Other living beings are also likely to get a more prominent place in society. Over history, we have seen ethical boundaries expand and a trend of more plant-based foods to less acceptance of animal cruelty is likely to continue. A shift beyond an anthropocentric perspective remains to be seen.

Greater understanding of physics and the possibility of complex math could help society embrace an acceptance of complexity. Instead of linear development as the reference, we can expect complexity to become the new norm.

Finally, and perhaps at the core of ecological civilization, are values beyond the urge for increased material welfare. Science and art could move to center stage, perhaps supported by a movement toward global prosperity.

The world has changed a lot in 40 years, and China has moved from the periphery to become an engine for much of the development of new sustainable technologies. Over the next 40 years, China and a network of stakeholders could take the next step and shape the next phase in human history.