八、科学与技术
TEXT 73
Analysts predict that by 2020, one-fifth of the multitrillion-dollar U. S. retail market will have shifted to the web and that Amazon alone will reap two-thirds of that bounty. Thanks to automation and a killer business model, Amazon is so efficient that it reaps nearly twice the revenue per employee of Walmart, despite the fact that Walmart, too, has a substantial online presence. Worldwide, Amazon has installed over 100,000 robots to labor in“perfect symbiosis”with humans in its warehouses and has plans to install many thousands more. While it's not clear what constitutes perfect symbiosis, the robots are said to save the company$22 million annually，per warehouse.
While Amazon continues to open warehouses around the globe and staff them with many thousands of human beings, estimates are that every human on the Amazon payroll—whether fullor part-time—displaces two humans at traditional brick-and-mortar operations. As Tim Lindner, a veteran IT analyst, confided in a note to industry insiders, eradicating jobs is the explicit goal of any online retailer.
And robots can be very precise, especially when it comes to routine tasks. Sawyer, an industrial robot created by the former Boston-based Rethink Robotics, offers an impressive illustration of how all-embracing a robot arm can be. Sawyer is the brainchild of Rodney Brooks, the inventor of both Roomba, the robotic vacuum, and PackBot, the robot used to clear bunkers at the World Trade Center after 9/11. Unlike Roomba and PackBot, Sawyer looks almost human—it has an animated flat-screen face and wheels where its legs should be. Simply grabbing and adjusting its monkey-like arm and guiding it through a series of motions“teaches”Sawyer whatever repeatable procedure one needs it to get done. The robot can sense and manipulate objects almost as quickly and as fluidly as a human and demands very little in return:While traditional industrial robots require costly engineers and programmers to write and debug their code, a high school dropout can learn to program Sawyer in less than five minutes. All told, Sawyer would work for a“wage”equivalent of less than$4 an hour.
Robots loom large in discussions of work and its future, a conversation that can get mired in false assumptions. Until recently, many economists were pessimistic that automation could permanently displace human workers on a large scale. People have always shifted away from work better done by machines, but the economic principle of“comparative advantage”predicts that humans will maintain an edge in many fields.
1.In Amazon's warehouse, thousands of robots ________.
[A]have already replaced human employees
[B]work well in coordination with humans
[C]accomplish more tasks than human workers
[D]save Amazon 22 million dollars every year
2.What Tim Lindner means is that ________.
[A]robots make humans more productive
[B]he has confidence in the retail market
[C]online retailing reduces job opportunities
[D]online retailing threatens traditional shops
3.Robot Sawyer's advantage over traditional robots is that ________.
[A]it will never replace human employees
[B]it can discern objects and manipulate them
[C]it can accomplish more difficult tasks
[D]its operation is more cost-efficient
4.The author concludes the text by asserting ________.
[A]many economists' belief about robots is mistaken
[B]robots have countless advantages over human work
[C]humans have to sharpen their skills to beat robots
[D]discussing robots replacing humans is a worthy topic
5.The text mainly discusses ________.
[A]Amazon's competitive advantage over Walmart
[B]the problems faced by online retailing businesses
[C]the possibility of humans being replaced by robots
[D]the comparative advantage of humans over robots
考研必备词汇
1.retail/ ˈriːteil/n．零售
2.reap/riːp/vt．收割，收获
3.bounty/ ˈbaunti/n．赠物，赠礼；奖励
4.automation/ɔːtə ˈmeiʃən/n．自动化
5.substantial/səb ˈstænʃəl/a．实质的，重要的；相当多的
6.install/in ˈstɔːl/vt．安装；安顿
7.warehouse/ ˈwɛəhaus/n．仓库；仓储超市
8.constitute/ ˈkɔnstitjuːt/n．构成，组成
9.globe/ɡ ləub/n．球体；星球，地球
10.staff/stɑːf/vt．给……配置职员
11.payroll/ ˈpeirəul/n．薪金名册，发薪名单
12.displace/dis ˈpleis/vt．代替，顶替
13.veteran/ ˈvetərən/a．老练的，经验丰富的
14.confide/kən ˈfaid/v．信赖，委托；吐露
15.eradicate/i ˈrædikeit/vt．根除，消灭
16.explicit/iks ˈplisit/a．明确的；显性的
17.when it comes to 涉及，在……方面
18.routine/ruː ˈtiːn/a．常规的，日常的
19.illustration/ˈiləs ˈtreiʃən/n．图解，例证；解释
20.vacuum/ ˈvækjuəm/n．真空（装置）；真空吸尘器
21.animate/ ˈænimeit/vt．使活动，使活泼
22.grab/ɡ ræb/vt．抓取；抢夺
23.procedure/prəˈ siːdʒə/n．过程，步骤
24.manipulate/mə ˈnipjuleit/vt．操作；操纵
25.dropout/ ˈdrɔpaut/n．中途退学者，辍学者
26.equivalent/i ˈkwivələnt/n．相等物，等值物
27.loom/luːm/vi．赫然出现，隐约可见
28.assumption/ə ˈsʌmpʃən/n．假定，假想；采取，承担
29.skeptical/ ˈskeptikəl/a．怀疑的
30.permanently/ ˈpəːmənəntli/ad．永久地，持久地
31.edge/edʒ/n．边，边缘；优势
其他词汇
1.multitrillion 数万亿
2.symbiosis 共生（现象）
3.brick-and-mortar 实体店
4.robotics 机器人学
5.all-embracing 万能的，无所不包的
6.brainchild 脑力劳动的产物
7.bunker 地堡，掩体；燃料库
8.debug 纠错，消除错误
9.mire 陷入泥坑；陷入困境
疑难长句注解
1.Thanks to automation...online presence.（第一段）
词组thanks to意为“多亏，由于”, killer这里意为strikingly impressive or effective（特别令人印象深刻或高效）, reap意为“收获，得到（报偿）”。substantial online presence可直译为“举足轻重的网络存在”，指沃尔玛的网络零售也占据举足轻重的位置。句中of Walmart是修饰revenue，不是employee，即按每个员工计算的沃尔玛的收入。
2.Simply grabbing and adjusting...get done.（第三段）
本句的主语是grabbing、adjusting和guiding引导的现在分词短语，由于三个动词是一系列动作而不是三个独立的动作，故谓语用了第三人称单数teaches。在whatever引导的宾语从句中，one指“教”Sawyer的人，it指repeatable procedure，这个词组指由人教过以后机器人Sawyer能重复做的程序或过程。由于只是伸手握住机器人调整、引导它的手臂，根本不是教它做事情，故teaches被放在引号中。
3.The robot can sense...five minutes.（第三段）
本句由冒号隔开两部分，冒号后的部分具体解释机器人怎样demands very little in return（几乎不求回报）——这里说的是它不像用人工作那样成本高。首先，它不需要花大价钱雇工程师和程序员写程序并修改程序；其次，下一句提到，它的操作成本不足每小时4美元。
译文
分析人士预测，到2020年，数万亿美元的美国零售市场中有五分之一将转向网络，而且亚马逊一家公司将抢占这一厚礼的三分之二。由于采用了自动化和极佳的商业模式，亚马逊效率是如此之高以至于它的员工平均营运收入几乎是沃尔玛的两倍，虽然沃尔玛在线上也占据相当可观的份额。亚马逊已经在全世界范围内安装了十万多台机器人，它们在亚马逊的仓储超市里与人“完美共生”劳动，该公司计划再安装几万台。虽然尚不清楚什么构成完美共生，但据说机器人每年每个超市可以为亚马逊节约2200万美元。
虽然亚马逊继续在全球开店，并雇用数万人在其中工作，但是据估算，在亚马逊雇员名单上的每个人——不管是正式员工还是临时员工，都能代替传统实体店的两个人手。Tim Lindner是资深IT分析家，他在写给行业内人士的一个评论中吐露，根除就业岗位显然是任何一家线上零售商的目标。
而且，机器人可以非常精确，特别是在完成常规任务时。Sawyer是一个工业机器人，它是位于波士顿的原Rethink Robotics公司创造的，它生动地说明了机器人手臂有多么万能。Rodney Brooks发明了Sawyer，他也是机器人吸尘器Roomba和PackBot的发明者，后者在9·11发生后被用来做世贸中心的清障工作。Sawyer既不像Roomba也不像PackBot，它看起来更像人：它有生动的平板屏幕脸，腿部装着轮子。只要握住并调整其猴子般的手臂，并引导手臂完成一系列“动作”，就能“教”Sawyer学会所需要的任何可重复的程序。这个机器人能感觉到并能操作物体，几乎跟人一样迅速连贯，而且几乎不需要回报：传统工业机器人需要成本很高的工程师和程序员去编写并纠正它们的编码，而一个未上完高中的人不到五分钟就能学会给Sawyer编程。总计，Sawyer的“薪水”大概每小时不到4美元。
在谈到工作及其前景时机器人总是显得举足轻重，这种谈话可能陷入一些错误的假想中。直到最近，许多经济学家仍然感到悲观，认为自动化能大规模地永远代替人类雇员。人们已经不再做机器能做得更好的工作，但是“比较优势”的经济学原理预测，人将在很多领域保持优势。
TEXT 74
As a boy, I wanted to maximize my impact on the world, so I decided I would build a selfimproving AI that could learn to become much smarter than I am. That would allow AIs to solve all of the problems that I could not solve myself—and also colonize the universe in a way infeasible for humans.
I think that within not so many years we'll have an AI that incrementally learns to become as smart as a little animal—curiously and creatively and continually learning to plan and reason and decompose a wide variety of problems into quickly solvable sub-problems. Soon after we develop monkey-level AI, we may have human-level AI, with truly limitless applications.
And it won't stop there. Many curious AIs that invent their own goals will quickly improve themselves, restricted only by the fundamental limits of computability and physics. What will they do? Space is hostile to humans but friendly to appropriately designed robots, and offers many more resources than our thin film of biosphere, which receives less than a billionth of the sun's light. While some AIs will remain fascinated with life, at least as long as they don't fully understand it, most will be more interested in the incredible new opportunities for robots out there in space. Through innumerable self-replicating robot factories, they will transform the solar system and then within a few hundred thousand years the entire galaxy and within billions of years the rest of the reachable universe.
This will be very different from the scenarios described in the science fiction novels of the 20th century. Most of the novels' plots were very human-centric and thus unrealistic. For example, to make large distances in the galaxy compatible with short human life spans, sci-fi authors invented physically impossible technologies such as warp drives. The expanding AI sphere, however, won't have any problems with physics' speed limit. Since the universe will continue to exist for many times its current 13.8-billion year age, there will probably be enough time to reach all of it.
Some humans may hope to become immortal parts of these ecologies through brain scans and“mind uploads”into virtual realities or robots. However, to compete in rapidly evolving AI ecologies, uploaded human minds will eventually have to change beyond recognition, becoming something very different in the process.
So humans won't play a significant role in the spreading of intelligence across the cosmos. This is more than just another industrial revolution. This is something new that transcends humankind and even biology.
1.The utmost characteristic of AI should be its capability for ________.
[A]immense computability
[B]continual self-enhancement
[C]monkey-like intelligence
[D]speedy problem-solving
2.The phrase“colonize the universe”（Para. 1）most probably means ________.
[A]settle and explore the universe
[B]search for extraterrestrial life
[C]disrupt the biosphere of the earth
[D]make space less hostile to humans
3.One of the important defects with science fictions is that ________.
[A]the authors have no reliable knowledge of the universe
[B]some descriptions in them are at odds with physical laws
[C]the authors' imagination is limited by their capability
[D]the things described in them have no basis in real life
4.Humans have a lesser role in future exploration of the universe because ________.
[A]they can never really go beyond the earth
[B]they can upload their intelligence into robots
[C]robots can evolve to be smarter by themselves
[D]human imagination has its ultimate limitations
5.By“spreading of intelligence across the cosmos”（last paragraph）, the author means ________.
[A]using human intelligence to change the universe
[B]launching a revolution unlike the industrial one
[C]inventing a technology to explore the universe
[D]sending robots into the universe to explore it
考研必备词汇
1.maximize/ ˈmæksimaiz/vt．使最大化
2.colonize/ ˈkɔlənaiz/vt．把……变为殖民地
3.infeasible/in ˈfiːzəbl/a．不可行的，行不通的
4.decompose/ˈdiːkəm ˈpəuz/vt．使分解；使腐烂
5.restrict/ris ˈtrikt/vt．限制，约束
6.fundamental/ˈfʌndə ˈmentl/a．基本的，基础的
7.computability/kəmˈpjuːtə ˈbiliti/n．可运算；运算能力
8.hostile/ ˈhɔstail/a．敌方的；怀有敌意的
9.biosphere/ ˈbaiəsfiə/n．生物圈
10.incredible/in ˈkredəbl/a．难以置信的，不可思议的
11.innumerable/ ˈi njuːmərəbl/a．无数的，数不清的
12.replicate/ ˈreplikeit/vt．复制，重复
13.galaxy/ ˈɡ æləksi/n．星系
14.scenario/s ˈi nɑːriəu/n．情景，情节
15.plot/plɔt/n．情节；计划，阴谋
16.unrealistic/ˈʌnriə ˈlistik/a．不现实的，脱离实际的
17.compatible/kəm ˈpætəbl/a．相容的，兼容的，一致的
18.life span 生命期（限）
19.immortal/i ˈmɔːtl/a．不死的，不朽的
20.ecology/iː ˈkɔlədʒi/n．生物学；生态（系统）
21.scan/skæn/n．扫描；一扫，浏览
22.virtual/virtual/a．实际的；虚拟的
23.eventually/i ˈventj uəli/ad．最终，最后
24.significant/siɡ ˈnifikənt/a．有意义的，重大的；显著的
25.cosmos/ ˈkɔzmɔs/n．宇宙，世界
26.transcend/træn ˈsend/vt．超出，超越
其他词汇
1.incrementally 逐渐增长地
2.warp 扭曲，弯曲；不正常
疑难长句注解
1.That would allow AIs to...for humans.（第一段）
本句中，AI用作复数指人工智能的各种产品，colonize the universe指第三段和第四段提到的利用人工智能产品（比如机器人）探索地球以外的太空的奥秘。
2.Many curious AIs that invent...physics.（第三段）
本句中curious和第二段中curiously互相照应，指人工智能产品能自我学习；invent their own goals指上一段提到的人工智能产品能做出计划和解决问题。过去分词短语的意思是它们的自我完善能力只受限于它们的运算能力和物理特性，换言之，如果其运算能力不断增强，机械部分的设计也更灵活，人工智能产品就能不断完善自我能力。
3.Through innumerable self-replicating...universe.（第三段）
本句大体是说：在遥远的未来，机器人能建立工厂造出更多自己的复制品，使自己布满太阳系、甚至其他星系和宇宙的其他地方，对这些地方进行改造。
4.For example, to make large...warp drives.（第四段）
本句中的large distances指星系中各星球之间的距离。作者的意思是：每个人的生命期有限，因此一个人在有生之年不可能穿越太空到达遥远的地方，即使以光速旅行也无济于事，因此科幻小说作者在其作品中发明了warp drives这样的超高速技术。但是，这种技术违背了物理学原理。
译文
孩童时代，我想要最大限度地影响世界，所以我决定制作一个能自我完善的人工智能产品，它能通过学习变得比我聪明得多。这将能让人工智能产品们解决我个人解决不了的所有问题，而且以一种人类不可实行的方式殖民宇宙。
我认为，用不了多少年，我们将拥有这样的人工智能，它将通过逐渐学习达到跟小动物一样聪明，带着好奇心和创造力不断学习计划和推理，并将广泛类别的问题分解为可迅速解决的子问题。在我们开始研制具有猴子智力水平的人工智能后不久，我们就能拥有人类智慧水平的人工智能，其应用范围简直无穷无尽。
而且，这不会就此停止。许多善于学习的人工智能产品创造其自身目标，它们能快速自我改善，仅仅会受到运算能力和物理特性的基本限制。它们能做什么？太空对人类充满敌意，但对设计合理的机器人却是友好的，而且，它提供的资源比我们薄薄的生物圈所能提供的多得多，因为我们的生物圈仅接收到不足十亿分之一的太阳光。虽然某些人工智能产品将继续对生命着迷——至少在它们还没有完全弄清楚生命（的奥秘）之前，但它们中大部分将更加着迷于使用机器人探索太空的难以置信的新机会。通过无数个能自我复制的机器人工厂，它们将改变太阳系，然后在未来几十万年里，改变整个银河系，并在几十亿年里改变能达到的其余宇宙空间。
这与20世纪科幻小说中描述的情景大不一样。科幻小说中大部分情节是以人类为中心的，因此是不现实的。比如，为了让星系中的巨大距离与人短暂的生命期限相容，科幻小说的作者发明了在物理学上不可能的技术，比如曲率驱动。然而，日益发展的人工智能领域却不会受到物理学上的速度的限制。既然宇宙将继续存在其目前存期138亿年的很多倍，我们就可能有足够的时间到达它的每个角落。
某些人可能希望通过大脑扫描和“把心智上载”到虚拟世界或机器人中获得永生，成为这些生态圈中不朽的一部分。然而，为了在这个快速演化的人工智能生态圈中取得竞争优势，上载后的人类心智将最终会变得难以辨认，在演变过程中成为非常不同的东西。
可见，在推动智力跨越宇宙传播的过程中，人类起不到多么重要的作用。这不仅仅是另一场工业革命。这是一种新的东西，它超越了人类，甚至超越了生物。
TEXT 75
Elon Musk is having a moment. Tesla just delivered its first Model 3, the affordable model that he envisioned in his“secret”strategy some 10 years ago. And yet confusion still abounds regarding Tesla.
At the core of the confusion over a company like Tesla is that traditional business metrics are outdated and can create overconfidence or underestimation. Classic metrics like market penetration and market share, which many leaders are measured on, are the very things causing us to miss market opportunities and threats. I consider someone like Musk to be a category creator—someone who doesn't rely on incremental innovation but instead changes the rules of the road entirely by creating a new category. In that landscape, our established modes of measurement just don't work. We don't need to throw out all classic business metrics. But we should recognize their fundamental flaws and complement them with a new set of metrics.
Market share is one of the most widely used, and wildly misused, business metrics. In May Forbes tried to dampen the Tesla enthusiasm with the fact that Renault-Nissan was the global electric vehicle market leader in Q1 of 2017. However, Tesla recently said that its gross margins on the Model 3 could hit 25% in 2018, which is comparable to the Model S and X and nearly twice as high as gross margins from Ford and GM. Share of profit is far more useful than share of units in this scenario. But even share of profit has two fundamental problems:It focuses your attention backward, to“what happened, ”instead of forward, to“what will happen. ”And it focuses your attention on your own performance or your competition, rather than on where market is headed. It's a metric that's better but still part of the problem.
The biggest problem is the very definition of“market. ”Some define Tesla's market as electric vehicles. But others say that Tesla is killing it in the large luxury car market, where the Model S is outselling Mercedes, BMW, and Porsche combined. Tesla's ludicrous mode has gotten a lot of attention, but what about Tesla's“camper mode? ”This isn't an actual mode but rather a novel use case that a set of Tesla superconsumers have figured out, creating a whole subculture of camping in Teslas. When category creators blur the lines we're used to around a given market, your old measures don't work as well and it's much easier to get blindsided or surprised. The solution to this is to enhance share-of-market metrics with share of growth.
Category creators are changing the world—and our metrics need to keep up.
1.“confusion”in the second paragraph refers to ________.
[A]the disorder Tesla creates in American car industry
[B]the bafflement at Tesla's miraculous secret success
[C]the underestimation of Tesla by market analysts
[D]the suspicion about the affordability of Tesla cars
2.Unlike tradition businesses, Tesla succeeds by ________.
[A]throwing away all classic business metrics
[B]inventing an entirely new set of metrics
[C]abandoning invention and innovation
[D]creating totally different kinds of things
3.The projected share of profit by Model 3 shows ________.
[A]Tesla is catching up with Renault-Nissan
[B]profit share is a better business measurement
[C]Forbes is right in its prediction about Tesla
[D]share of units is a better metric than share of profit
4.It can be inferred from the fourth paragraph that ________.
[A]Tesla has upset the way people think about market
[B]Tesla has become the world's number carmaker
[C]superconsumers are the main innovators of Tesla
[D]electric vehicles do not seem to have a large market
5.The author suggests that classic business metrics be ________.
[A]replaced by share-of-market metrics
[B]discarded in favor of a new set of metrics
[C]updated timely with the market trends
[D]set up by the category creators
考研必备词汇
1.deliver/di ˈlivə/vt．交付，给予
2.affordable/ə ˈfɔːdəbl/a．买得起的，可支付的
3.envision/in ˈviʒən/vt．想象，预想
4.abound/ə ˈbaund/vi．丰富，充满
5.regarding/ri ˈɡɑːdiŋ/prep．关于，有关
6.core/kɔː/n．核，核心
7.metric/ ˈmetrik/n．测量，度量；衡量标准
8.penetration/peni ˈtreiʃən/n．渗透，穿透
9.category/ ˈkætiɡəri/n．范畴；类别
10.incremental/inkri ˈmentəl/a．累加的，递增的
11.innovation/ˈinəu ˈveiʃən/n．创新，革新
12.landscape/ ˈlændskeip/n．风景，景象
13.fundamental/ˈfʌndə ˈmentl/a．基本的，基础的
14.flaw/flɔː/n．缺陷，瑕疵
15.complement/ ˈkɔmplimənt/vt．补充
16.dampen/ ˈdæmpən/vt．弄湿；抑制，压制
17.enthusiasm/in ˈθjuːziæzəm/n．热心，热情
18.gross/ɡ rəus/a．总的，毛的
19.margin/ ˈmɑːdʒin/n．边缘；盈利，利润
20.scenario/si ˈnɑːriəu/n．情节；状况，事态
21.luxury/ ˈlʌkʃəri/n．奢侈，豪华
22.actual/ ˈæktjuəl/a．实际的，目前的
23.figure out 算出，推算出；解决
24.subculture/ ˈsʌbˈkʌltʃə/n．亚文化
25.blur/bləː/v．弄模糊，变模糊
26.enhance/in ˈhɑːns/vt．增强，提高
其他词汇
1.outsell 比……卖得多
2.ludicrous 滑稽的，可笑的
3.superconsumer 超级消费者
4.blindsided 侧面攻击，不防备
疑难长句注解
1.Classic metrics like market penetration...threats.（第二段）
本句的主干结构是Classic metrics...are the very things causing...，意为“传统的市场计量方式……是导致我们失去市场机会和导致市场威胁的东西”。本句中，Classic metrics指市场测量方法（mode of measurement），比如市场渗透率和市场份额，其中市场渗透率用来测量一个品牌或一类产品在市场上的受欢迎程度；many leaders并非指公司领导，而是指在市场上名列前茅的公司或品牌；介词on此处意为“根据，依据”，这里on which指根据市场渗透率和市场份额这样的测量指数。
2.This isn't an actual mode...camping in Teslas.（第四段）
本句中，mode指车的“款式”; use case是一个词组，意为“用例”，即使用的范例；subculture意为“亚文化”，在这里指一种特殊的露营方式，即如果露营是一种文化，那么把特斯拉车改成露营车就是创造了一种亚文化的露营方式。
译文
埃隆·马斯克正处于得意时刻。特斯拉刚发布了其第一款Model 3车型，这是他大约十年前在他的“秘密”策略中设想的能买得起的车型。但是，有关特斯拉的困惑仍然很多。
对像特斯拉这样的公司感觉困惑，其核心问题是传统的商业测量方式过时了，只能造成过分自信或低估。像市场渗透率和市场份额这类经典测量方法都是测量领军企业的手段，现在正是这些东西使我们失去了市场机会并面临威胁。我认为像马斯克这样的人是范畴创造者，这种人不依靠累加式的创新，而是通过创造新的范畴来彻底改变道路规则。面对这种场景，我们传统的测量模式不再起作用。我们不需要扔掉所有传统商业测量模式，但是应该意识到它们的根本缺陷，用一套新的测量模式来补充它们。
市场份额是应用最广之一——也是被广泛误用——的商业测量方式。在五月份，《福布斯》试图浇灭特斯拉的热情，它提到这一事实：雷诺-日产在全球电动汽车市场2017年Q1销量榜上名列榜首。然而，特斯拉最近说，其Model 3的销售毛利在2018年可能达到市场的25%，这与Model S和Model X旗鼓相当，是福特和通用公司毛利的近两倍。在这种情况下，利润份额比单位份额有用得多。但是，甚至利润份额也有两个基本问题：它把你的注意力引向过去——引向“已经发生了什么”，而不是引向未来——引向“将要发生什么”；而且，它把你的注意力引向你自己的表现或竞争者的表现，而不是市场走向何方。它是一个更好的测量方法，但导致了部分问题。
最大的问题恰恰是怎样定义“市场”。有些人把特斯拉的市场定义为电动汽车市场。但是其他人则说，特斯拉在大型豪华车市场上正在杀死市场，因为其Model S的销量比奔驰、宝马和保时捷的总数都多。特斯拉奇怪的款式获得很多关注，但是特斯拉的“露营车款”又怎样呢？这实际上不是一款车，而是一种新的用车方式，是特斯拉的一组超级消费者想出来的，在特斯拉汽车上创造了一种全新的露营亚文化。当范畴创造者把我们所熟悉的某个特定市场的界线弄模糊时，旧的测量方式也不再起作用，我们很容易感到措手不及或惊愕。解决这一问题的办法就是用成长份额改进对市场份额的测量。
范畴创造者正在改变世界——我们的测量方式需要跟上潮流。
TEXT 76
Just how common are the views on gender espoused in the memo that former Google engineer James Damore was recently fired for distributing on an internal company message board? The incident has women and men in tech—and elsewhere—wondering what their colleagues really think about diversity. Research we've conducted shows that while most people don't share Damore's views, male engineers are more likely to.
Engineers are taught that engineering work can and should be disconnected from social and political concerns because such considerations may bias otherwise“pure”engineering practice, to quote a 2013 study by Erin A. Cech. This viewpoint—let's call it engineering purity—means engineers believe they need to protect the purity of their profession from extraneous considerations that threaten engineering's rationality and rigor. Damore's memo is an exemplar of this kind of thinking. “De-emphasize empathy, ”Damore advises. “Being emotionally unengaged helps us better reason about the facts. ”
In the nationwide study of engineers cosponsored by the Society of Women Engineers, we found robust levels of both gender and racial bias. To cite just one example,61% of women engineers reported having to prove themselves repeatedly to get the same level of respect and recognition as their colleagues, as compared with 35% of white men.
But our most interesting finding concerned engineering purity. “Merit is vastly more important than gender or race, and efforts to‘balance'gender and race diminish the overall quality of an organization by reducing collective merit of the personnel, ”a male engineer commented in the survey. Note the undefended assumption that tapping the full talent pool of engineers rather than limiting hiring to a subgroup（white men）will decrease the quality of engineers hired. Damore's memo echoes this view, decrying“hiring practices which can effectively lower the bar for‘diversity'candidates. ”
Engineering purity is a 19th-century relic that the 21st century can no longer afford. An illustration of its perils is the computer science professor who invented a way to create video of people saying things they didn't really say so that she could have a talking hologram of her mother, who lives in Israel and whom she misses. When asked whether she had ever thought about how her invention could be used to create videos of world leaders saying things they never said, she became literally speechless and eventually stammered out that her role as a computer scientist was to invent stuff and let others cope with the consequences. This is what happens when you use an out dated,19th-century notion of purity to invent 21st-century technology.
1.What is wrong with James Damore？
[A]He complained about his company's diversity policy.
[B]He wanted to know his colleagues'view on gender.
[C]He disagreed with his colleagues on diversity.
[D]He exposed his company's secret on message board.
2.Engineers' less commitment to public welfare ________.
[A]results from the misleading 2013 study
[B]biases them less on social and political issues
[C]is attributable to the education they receive
[D]hurts their rationality as well as their work
3.The male surveyed indicated that ________.
[A]diversity should be given favor over gender
[B]women were actually talented in engineering
[C]he disagreed with Damore's point of view
[D]women engineers shouldn't be unfairly favored
4.The author believes that rationality of engineering ________.
[A]hurts diversity as well as engineering
[B]serves as a boost to computer science
[C]should not embarrass scientists
[D]affects the overall quality of engineers
5.It is implied that the author's attitude to Damore is ________.
[A]sympathetic
[B]critical
[C]contemptuous
[D]tolerant
考研必备词汇
1.espouse/is ˈpauz/vt．拥护，赞助
2.memo/ ˈmeməu/（= memorandum）n．备忘录
3.distribute/dis ˈtribj uːt/vt．分发；分销；分布
4.internal/in ˈtəːnl/a．内部的
5.incident/ ˈinsidənt/n．事件，变故
6.diversity/dai ˈvəːsiti/n．多样（性）
7.bias/ ˈbaiəs/vt．使有偏见，偏袒
8.extraneous/eks ˈtreinjəs/a．外来的，外部的
9.rationality/ˈræʃə ˈnæliti/n．理性；合理性
10.rigor/ ˈrigə/n．严格，严厉
11.exemplar/iɡ ˈzemplə/n．典型，样本
12.empathy/ ˈempəθi/n．移情作用
13.co-sponsor/kəu ˈspɔnsə/vt．合作主办，联合支持
14.robust/rə ˈbʌst/a．强壮的，有力的
15.merit/ ˈmerit/n．优点；功劳
16.diminish/di ˈminiʃ/vt．减小，缩小
17.collective/kə ˈlektiv/a．共同的，集体的
18.personnel/ˈpəːsə ˈnel/n．职员；人事
19.assumption/ə ˈsʌmpʃən/n．假定，假设；采取，承担
20.tap/tæp/vt．开发，利用
21.echo/ ˈekəu/vt．反射（回声）；引起反响，附和
22.bar/bɑː/n．横杆；障碍，门槛
23.candidate/ ˈkændidit/n．候选人
24.relic/ ˈrelik/n．遗物，文物
25.illustration/ˈiləs ˈtreiʃən/n．举例说明，图解说明
26.peril/ ˈperil/n．危险（的事情）
27.literally/ ˈlitərəli/ad．差不多；字面地
28.eventually/i ˈventjuəli/ad．最后，终于
其他词汇
1.de-emphasize 不强调，淡化
2.decry 公开谴责
3.hologram 全息图
4.stammer 口吃，结结巴巴说
疑难长句注解
1.Just how common are the views...message board?（第一段）
本句中，espoused in the memo是过去分词短语，作定语修饰views；而that引导的从句修饰memo，在从句中memo作distributing的宾语，即former Google engineer James Damore was recently fired for distributing（the memo）on an internal company message board。公司的信息栏一般就是墙报，但现在可能是电子版的。
2.Merit is vastly more important...in the survey.（第四段）
本句的主干结构是Merit is...more important than..., and efforts...diminish the overall quality...。其中merit指成绩或成就，‘balance'gender and race指在雇人时考虑性别和种族这两个因素，以便照顾到用人的多样化，organization一般指公司或组织。
3.Note the undefended assumption...hired.（第四段）
本句是一个祈使句，相当于说“请注意……”, that引导的定语从句修饰assumption。本句中，undefended assumption是说这种假设未经过辩论或说明就被理所当然地接受；pool指某种资源的集合体，full talent pool指整个人才储备，这里指男人和女人共同构成的人才整体；subgroup指人群中的某个亚群，这里指白人男工程师。
译文
James Damore最近因为在公司内部信息栏上发表一个备忘录而被解雇，在其中这位谷歌前工程师表示自己支持一些涉及性别的观点，但是这些观点到底是不是常见呢？这件事情让技术行业——以及其他行业——的男男女女在想，自己的同事到底怎样看待多样性。我们做的研究表明，虽然大部分人不认同Damore的观点，但是男工程师更有可能。
根据工程师们接受的教育，工程工作可以而且应该是与社会和政治上的关注没关系的，因为这种关注可能使本来“纯粹的”工程活动出现偏差——引用2013年Erin A. Cech所做的一项研究来说。这种观点我们可以称之为“工程学的纯粹”，其意思是说，工程师们认为，他们需要保护他们行业的纯粹性，以免其遭受外界关注的影响，这种影响会威胁到工程学的理想和严谨。Damore的备忘录是这种思维的典型例子。Damore建议说，“淡化同情心，减少情绪化的参与有助于我们更好地推断事实”。
在与女工程师协会联合做的一项针对工程师所做的全国性研究中，我们发现了程度很高的性别和种族歧视。仅举出一个例子，61%的女工程师回答说，她们不得不反复证明自己，才能得到跟同事们一样的尊重和承认，而只有35%的白人男工程师这样说。
但是，我们最有趣的发现涉及工程学的纯粹。在调查中一个男工程师评价说，“成就比性别或种族重要得多，试图‘平衡’性别和种族会降低全体人员的集体成就，致使公司总体质量受损”。请注意，这里一个未予说明的假设是：开发工程师的总才能储备的降低，而不是将雇人狭隘地限制在某个亚群体（男性白人），会降低受雇工程师的（总）质量。Damore的备忘录与这种观点有共鸣，他指责那种“为了照顾‘多样化’申请人而有效降低标准的雇人活动”。
工程学的纯粹是19世纪的遗留观念，21世纪不能再保留它。其危险用一位计算机科学教授作为例子就看得很清楚。她发明了一种方式，可以创作出视频，让人说他们实际上没说过的东西，这样她就能获得她母亲说话的一个全息录影，母亲住在以色列，她很想念她。当问她，她是否曾想过，她的发明可能被用来制作世界领导人的视频，让他们说自己从来没说过的事情时，她几乎变得哑口无言，最终结结巴巴地说，作为计算机科学家，她的作用是发明东西，让其他人处理其后果吧。当你使用一个过时的19世纪的纯粹概念来发明21世纪的技术时，就会发生这样的事情。
TEXT 77
Even when we intellectually accept the precepts of science, we subconsciously cling to our intuitions—what researchers call our naive beliefs.A study by Andrew Shtulman of Occidental College（PDF）in California showed that even students with an advanced science education had a hitch in their mental gait when asked to affirm or deny that humans are descended from sea animals and that the Earth goes around the Sun.Both truths are counterintuitive.The students, even those who correctly marked“true”, were slower to answer those questions than questions about whether humans are descended from tree-dwelling creatures（also true but easier to grasp）and whether the moon goes around the Earth（also true but intuitive）.
Shtulman's research indicates that as we become scientifically literate, we repress our naive beliefs but never eliminate them entirely.They nest in our brains, chirping at us as we try to make sense of the world.Most of us do that by relying on personal experience and anecdotes, on stories rather than statistics.Of course, just because two things happened together doesn't mean one caused the other, and just because events are clustered doesn't mean they're not random.Yet we have trouble digesting randomness; our brains crave pattern and meaning.
Even for scientists, the scientific method is a hard discipline.They, too, are vulnerable to confirmation bias—the tendency to look for and see only evidence that confirms what they already believe.But unlike the rest of us, they submit their ideas to formal peer review before publishing them.Once the results are published, if they're important enough, other scientists will try to reproduce them—and, being inherently sceptical and competitive, will be very happy to announce that they don't hold up.Scientific results are always provisional, susceptible to being overturned by some future experiment or observation.Scientists rarely proclaim an absolute truth or an absolute certainty.Uncertainty is inevitable at the frontiers of knowledge.
The“science communication problem”, as it's called by the scientists who study it, has yielded abundant new research into how people decide what to believe—and why they so often don't accept the expert consensus.It's not that they can't grasp it, according to Dan Kahan of Yale University.In one study he asked 1,540 Americans, a representative sample, to rate the threat of climate change on a scale of zero to 10.Then he correlated that with the subjects' science literacy. He found that higher literacy was associated with stronger views—at both ends of the spectrum. Science literacy promoted polarization on climate, not consensus.
1.Students who are highly literate in science ________.
[A]can rid themselves of naive beliefs
[B]do not know much about human evolution
[C]use intuitions to judge scientific truth
[D]believe more in their eyes than their minds
2.Which is the following is the basis of our naive beliefs？
[A]Scientific knowledge.
[B]Experiment and observation.
[C]Personal experience.
[D]Pattern and meaning.
3.Scientists with confirmation bias take delight in ________.
[A]overturning other people's ideas
[B]confirming a well-established idea
[C]copying other people's ideas
[D]discovering absolute truth
4.When he says uncertainty is“at the frontiers of knowledge”, the author means that ________.
[A]the latest knowledge is that which is uncertain
[B]there is no knowledge that is absolutely certain
[C]studying uncertainty itself is vital to discovering truth
[D]no knowledge should be accepted before it becomes true
5.Dan Kahan implies that scientifically literate people tend to ________.
[A]use their rational mental power to reach consensus
[B]communicate with people with more patience and ease
[C]overlook climate problems that are threatening the world
[D]use scientific knowledge to reinforce their worldviews
考研必备词汇
1.intellectually/ˈinti ˈlektj uəli/ad．智力上，知识上
2.precept/ ˈpriːsept/n．规则，规律；戒律
3.subconsciously/ˈsʌb ˈkɔnʃəsli/ad．潜意识地
4.intuition/ˈintjuˈ iʃən/n．直觉
5.gait/ɡ eit/n．步伐，步调
6.affirm/ə ˈfəːm/vt．断言，确认
7.descend/di ˈsend/vi．遗传，传下；下来，下降
8.counterintuitive/ˈkauntəin ˈtjuːitiv/a．违反直觉的
9.literate/ ˈlitərit/a．懂得的，通晓的
10.repress/ri ˈpres/vt．压制，压抑
11.anecdote/ ˈænikdəut/n．轶事，趣闻
12.statistics/stə ˈtistiks/n．统计（数字）；数据
13.cluster/ ˈklʌstə/vi．成群；群集n．群，丛
14.random/ ˈrændəm/a．任意的，随意的；随机的
15.digest/dai ˈdʒest/vt．消化；领会
16.crave/kreiv/vt．渴望（获得）
17.discipline/ ˈdisiplin/n．学科；纪律；惩戒，惩罚
18.vulnerable/ ˈvʌlnərəbl/a．脆弱的，易受伤害的
19.confirmation/ˈkɔnfə ˈmeʃiən/n．确认，证实
20.bias/ ˈbaiəs/n．偏差；偏见
21.submit/səb ˈmit/vt．提交，递交；服从
22.inherently/in ˈhiərəntli/ad．固有地，天生地
23.sceptical/ ˈskeptikəl/a．怀疑的
24.announce/ə ˈnauns/vt．宣布，通告
25.hold up 经得住，继续有效；阻碍
26.provisional/prə ˈviʒənl/a．暂时的
27.susceptible/sə ˈseptəbl/a．易受影响的
28.overturn/ˈəuvə ˈtəːn/n．打翻，推翻
29.proclaim/prə ˈkleim/vt．宣布，声明
30.frontier/frʌn ˈtiə/n．前沿；边疆
31.yield/j iːld/vt．生产；屈服，屈从n．产量
32.abundant/ə ˈbʌndənt/a．丰富的，充足的
33.consensus/kən ˈsensəs/n．一致意见，共识
34.representative/ˈrepri ˈzentətiv/a．典型的，有代表性的
35.correlate/ ˈkɔrileit/vt．使关联，使建立联系
36.spectrum/ ˈspektrəm/n．谱，光谱；范围
其他词汇
1.Occidental 西方的
2.hitch 障碍
3.nest 筑巢；鸟巢
4.chirp（鸟的）啁啾声
5.polarization 两极对立
疑难长句注解
1.They nest in our brains...the world.（第二段）
本句用鸟作比。根据上下文，所谓nest in our brains，是指一些直觉认识（naive beliefs）存在于我们的大脑；所谓chirp at us，是指这些直觉认识不断影响我们的判断。词组make sense of意为“理解，认识”。
2.He found that higher literacy...the spectrum.（第四段）
本句较为费解，必须在上下文中去理解。耶鲁大学的Dan Kahan首先让他的实验对象就气候变化带来的威胁从1～10分打分做出评价（rate），即认为威胁大的打10分，认为威胁小的打1分。而后，他把他们的打分结果与他们科学知识的多寡进行相关性分析（correlate）。结果发现，知识越多越容易走极端。这里，at both ends of the spectrum指“认为威胁大和认为威胁小的人”这两个极端。
译文
即使当我们从理性上接受科学的规范，我们却潜意识地坚持自己的直觉——研究者把它称作“幼稚的信念”。加州西方学院的Andrew Shtulman做了一项研究，它显示，即使受过高级科学教育的学生，当被要求去确认或否认人类是海洋动物的后代和地球绕着太阳转这样的论断时，也会遇到一些智力上的障碍。这两个事实都是反直觉的。即使那些正确标出“真”的学生，比回答人是否是树居动物的后代（这也是正确的，但是更容易理解）、月亮是否绕着地球转（这也是真的，但符合直觉）等问题，可能回答起来较慢。
Shtulman的研究表明，随着我们对科学的熟知，我们压制自己“幼稚的信念”，但是却从来也没有完全消除它们。它们在我们的大脑中筑巢，当我们试图理解世界时对着我们鸣啭。我们大部分人能这样做，靠的是个人经验和阅历，靠的是故事而不是数据。当然，仅仅是因为两件事情同时发生，并不意味着一个导致了另一个；仅仅是因为事件组合在一起，并不意味着它们不是随机发生的。可是，我们难以理解“随机”性，我们的大脑希望看到模式与意义。
即使对科学家来说，科学方法也是一个困难的学科领域。他们也容易产生确认偏差——寻找并只看到能证实自己已相信东西的证据的倾向。但是不像我们大多数人那样，科学家在出版自己的思想之前会将它们正式交由同行做出评价。结果一旦发表，如果它们足够重要，其他科学家将试图验证这些成果；而且，由于科学家天生是怀疑者和竞争者，他们将很高兴地宣布这些成果站不住脚。科学成果总是暂时的，容易被未来的试验或观察推翻。科学家很少声称自己发现了一个绝对真理或绝对确定的事情。不确定性不可避免地处在知识的前沿。
“科学交流问题”是研究这一问题的科学家给出的名称，这个问题产生出丰富的新研究成果，帮助我们弄清人们怎样决定相信什么以及他们为什么经常不接受专家们的共识。耶鲁大学的Dan Kahan说，这并非是因为他们理解不了这些共识。在一项研究中，他选择出一组有代表性的人群样本，要求1540个美国人评价气候在1～10分的范围内变暖带来的威胁。然后，他把结果与被研究者的科学知识做了对比研究。他发现，更多科学知识与更强的观点在两个极端上都相关。科学知识带来的是在气候问题极端的观点，而不是共识。
TEXT 78
We live in an age when all manner of scientific knowledge—from the safety of fluoride and vaccines to the reality of climate change—faces organised and often furious opposition.Empowered by their own sources of information and their own interpretations of research, doubters have declared war on the consensus of experts.There are so many of these controversies these days, you would think a diabolical agency had put something in the water to make people argumentative.
Science doubt has become a pop-culture meme.In the recent movie Interstellar, set in a futuristic America where NASA has been forced into hiding, school textbooks say the Apollo moon landings were faked.In a sense this is not surprising.Our lives are permeated by science and technology as never before.For many of us this new world is wondrous, comfortable and rich in re wards—but also more complicated and sometimes unnerving.We now face risks we can't easily analyse.
The world is replete with real and imaginary hazards, and distinguishing the former from the latter isn't easy.We're asked to accept, for example, that it's safe to eat food containing genetically modified organisms because, the experts point out, there's no evidence that it isn't and no reason to believe that altering genes precisely in a lab is more dangerous than altering them wholesale through traditional breeding.But to some people, the very idea of transferring genes between species conj ures up mad scientists—and so, two centuries after Mary Shelley wrote Frankenstein, they talk about“Frankenfood”.
Should we be afraid that the Ebola virus, which is spread only by direct contact with bodily fluids, will mutate into an airborne super-plague? The scientific consensus says that's extremely unlikely:no virus has ever been observed to completely change its mode of transmission in humans, and there's zero evidence that the latest strain of Ebola is any different.But type“airborne Ebola”into an internet search engine, and you'll enter a dystopia where this virus has almost supernatural powers, including the power to kill us all.
In this bewildering world we have to decide what to believe and how to act on that.In principle, that's what science is for.“Science is not a body of facts, ”says geophysicist Marcia McNutt, who once headed the US Geological Survey and is now editor of Science, the prestigious journal.“Science is a method for deciding whether what we choose to believe has a basis in the laws of nature or not.”The scientific method leads us to truths that are less than self-evident, often mindblowing and sometimes hard to swallow.
1.From the first paragraph we learn that ________.
[A]scientific method and facts cannot convert doubters
[B]scientific knowledge is an interpretation of research
[C]experts should be open to new facts and information
[D]arguing about science does not help to promote it
2.The movie was mentioned to illustrate ________.
[A]why people pretend that they know science
[B]how ignorant people are of science history
[C]what wonders science creates for the world
[D]how strong anti-science feeling has become
3.What is frightening to some people is the idea of ________.
[A]distinguishing what is real from what is imagined
[B]breeding and raising crops in traditional way
[C]altering the genes of a crop species partially
[D]conjuring up the image of the mad scientist
4.Ebola is unlikely to become airborne because ________.
[A]Ebola is only spread by direct bodily contact
[B]a virus never changes its mode of transmission
[C]humans can't change the mode of Ebola transmission
[D]Ebola can never become airborne in a dystopia
5.Scientific facts should be used to ________.
[A]determine the laws of nature
[B]verify or refute what we believe
[C]clarify those less-evident things
[D]make our beliefs less hard to swallow
考研必备词汇
1.vaccine/ˈvæksiːn/n．疫苗
2.furious/ ˈfjuəriəs/a．狂怒的；猛烈的
3.empower/im ˈpauə/vt．授权给；使能够
4.interpretation/inˈtəːpri ˈteiʃən/n．解释，说明
5.consensus/kən ˈsensəs/n．一致意见，共识
6.controversy/ ˈkɔntrəvəːsi/n．争议
7.argumentative/ˈɑːɡ ju ˈmentətiv/a．好争论的；论述的
8.fake/feik/vt．伪造，捏造a．假的
9.permeate/ ˈpəːmieit/vt．渗透，透过，充满
10.replete/ri ˈpliːt/a．充满的
11.genetically/dʒi ˈnetikəli/ad．基因上，遗传学上
12.organism/ ˈɔːɡənizəm/n．生物体，有机体
13.alter/ ˈɔːltə/vt．改变
14.breed/briːd/vt．饲养，养育；引起n．种类
15.transfer/træns ˈfəː/vt．转移；调动；传递；转让
16.conj ure/ ˈkʌndʒə/vt．（up）唤起，使想起
17.virus/ ˈvaiərəs/n．病毒
18.mutate/mj uː ˈteit/vi．变异，突变
19.plague/pleiɡ/n．瘟疫
20.extremely/iks ˈtriːmli/ad．极端地；极其
21.transmission/trænz ˈmiʃən/n．传输；发射
22.strain/strein/n．种类；紧张
23.bewilder/bi ˈwildə/vt．使迷惑，使不知所措
24.act on 依据……行动；作用于
25.principle/ ˈprinsəpl/n．原则；原理
26.geophysicist/ˈdʒiːəu ˈfizisist/n．地球物理学家
27.prestigious/pres ˈtiːdʒəs/a．有威望的，有声誉的
28.journal/ ˈdʒəːnl/n．期刊，杂志
29.swallow/ ˈswɔləu/vt．吞咽
其他词汇
1.fluoride 氟化物
2.diabolical 恶魔似的
3.meme 文化信息基因的单位
4.unnerving 令人胆怯的
5.wholesale 批发的；大规模的
6.dystopia 反乌托邦
疑难长句注解
1.There are so many of these...argumentative.（第一段）
本句中，put something in the water来自词组there is something in the water，其基本意思是，虽然水看上去是清凉透明的，但是它也是由一些神奇的东西构成的，put something in the water意指在水中投入了一种说不清、道不明的神奇东西，这里指引起不必要争论的东西。说一个人是argumentative是说他likes arguing or often starts arguing（爱争论或挑起争论），这个词通常的意思是“论述的”，如argumentative essay通常指“论述文”。
2.We're asked to accept...traditional breeding.（第三段）
本句很长，但结构清晰，由主句和that引导的宾语从句组成。宾语从句包括一个主句和由because引导的原因状语从句。在because从句中又包含两个并列句：there is no evidence..．和there is no reason...，这两个并列句中又各自有自己的同位语从句和宾语从句。词组genetically modified organisms指转基因作物，it isn't是it isn't safe to..．省略，altering genes precisely指准确地改变作物中某个基因（而不是改变整个基因结构）, traditional breeding指传统的育种方法。
3.But to some people, the very idea...Frankenfood.（第三段）
本句the very idea中very起到强调作用，意思是“只要一想”，词组conjure up意为“幻想起，（念咒）召唤起”。Mary Shelley是英国著名诗人雪莱的妻子，著有科幻小说《弗兰肯斯坦》（或译《科学怪人》）。小说中，年轻的科学家弗兰肯斯坦创造出一个他自己都难以控制的怪物。Frankenfood指转基因作物，其中的寓意是，它将是人类创造出的并最终失去人控制的东西。
译文
我们生活在这样一个时代，其中各式科学知识面临有组织的——经常是激烈的对抗，其中包括有关氟化物、疫苗的安全和气候变化的真相的知识。怀疑者从他们的各种信息来源和他们对研究成果的解释获得支持，对专家们的一些共识宣战。今天，我们面对如此多的争议，以至于你会认为有一个邪恶的机构在故意兴风作浪，使人们陷入各种争论。
对科学的怀疑已经成为一个流行文化基因。最近的电影《星际穿越》场景设在未来的美国，其中，美国航空航天局被迫藏匿起来，在电影中，学校课本上说阿波罗登月计划是伪造的。这在一定意义上来说并不令人惊奇。我们的生活从来没有像今天这样被科学技术渗透。对我们很多人来说，这个新的世界令人感觉神奇、舒适、有求必应——但是也更加复杂，而且有时令人胆怯。我们现在面临一些难以分析的危险。
这个世界充满真正的和想象的危险，把前者和后者分清楚不是一件容易的事情。比如说我们被要求接受吃含有转基因机体的食物是安全的，因为专家们指出，没有证据表明它不安全，没有理由相信在实验室中准确改变基因比通过传统培育方法大规模改变基因更危险。但是，一提到在物种之间转换基因，就有些人会想起那些疯狂的科学家，所以，在玛丽·雪莱创作了《弗兰肯斯坦》两个世纪之后，人们开始谈论“弗兰肯食物”。
我们是否应该担心埃博拉病毒将演变成空气传播的超级瘟疫呢？——虽然它现在只是通过直接接触体液传播。科学共识说，这不太可能：没有任何病毒被观察到彻底改变在人身上的传播方式，而且也没有丝毫证据证明，最新型的埃博拉有何不同。但是，如果你将“空气中的埃博拉”键入互联网的搜索引擎，你就进入了一个反乌托邦的世界，在那里，这种病毒几乎有超自然力，包括灭绝我们所有人的力量。
在这个迷茫的世界里，我们不得不决定信什么以及如何据此去行动。从原则上来说，这就是科学的目的。“科学不是一大堆事实，”地球物理学家Marcia McNutt指出，他是美国地质勘察局的负责人，现在是著名杂志《科学》的编辑。“科学是一种方法，它帮助我们决定我们所信奉的东西是否有自然规律作为基础。”科学方法把我们带向事实，这些事实也许不那么一目了然，经常令我们惊愕，有时也难以接受。