空间计量视角下的中国经济收敛状态分析

王西贝 马薇^[1]

摘要：当前我国正处于经济转型时期，各地经济发展状态复杂，研究地区经济发展收敛问题对促进地区持续协调发展具有重大战略意义。本文基于空间计量视角考虑了我国经济过程变化中的收敛问题，经过对全国31个省级面板2004～2016年的数据分析发现，全国经济发展呈现显著的空间相关性，通过构建空间滞后模型发现人均GDP不存在σ收敛，且地区间不存在绝对β收敛，考虑相对收敛情况发现仅有东部、中部地区存在收敛趋势，东部地区收敛速度缓慢，内部出现分化，中部地区收敛趋势显著。本文探究性地使用空间杜宾模型对该问题进行研究，发现变量的空间影响将加速收敛趋势。

关键词：经济收敛 空间面板滞后模型 空间杜宾模型 空间权重矩阵

中图分类号：F821.0 文献标识码：A

The Analysis of Convergence of China’s Economy Based on Spatial Econometric Perspective

Wang Xibei Ma Wei

Abstract：At present，China’s economy is in the period of economic transformation，and the state of economic development in various regions tends to be more complex and changeable. The state of convergence of regional economic development has important strategic significance for the coordinated development of different regions. Based on the perspective of spatial，this paper discusses the convergence of economic process changes in China. Through the analysis of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016，the national economic development shows a significant spatial correlation. By constructing a spatial lag model，it is found that there has no σ convergence in China’s personal GDP. It is also founded that there is no absolute convergence of β between regions. Considering the relative convergence，only the eastern and central regions have convergence tendency. The eastern region has a slow convergence rate，it has a divergence trend，the central region convergence trend is significant. This paper explores the problem using the spatial Durbin model and finds that the spatial impact of the variables will accelerate the convergence trend.

Keywords：Economic Convergence Spatial Panel Lag Model Spatial Durbin Model Spatial Weight Matrix