Day31 As overall life expectancy continues to rise，the population of our country is growing increasingly older
The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments：
“As overall life expectancy continues to rise，the population of our country is growing increasingly older.For example，more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old，and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months.Because of these two related trends，a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
文勇五问：
（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“As overall life expectancy continues to rise，the population of our country is growing increasingly older.For example，more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old，and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months.”是事实，“Because of these two related trends，a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead.”是结论，值得反驳吗？各位记得关注这段文字的来源，这将有利于大家理解文章观点。另外，life expectancy是一个固定的小说法，叫做平均寿命。
（2）本文选择人口最多的地区作为例子合适吗？这个地区真的能够用来代表全国吗？有哪些因素可能导致这个地区并不具有代表性？例如，它是一个发展了很久的重工业城市，不能代表新兴城市。另外，文章是否给出了足够多的材料来说明20%的老年人口是一个很大的比例？
（3）resort hotel是一个小词组，代表度假村。以六个月作为考核的时间段是合适的吗？季节因素是否可能对此大有影响？
（4）度假村居住率下降能否简单地和人口老龄化加剧对应起来？原文有没有在两者间建立明确的因果关系？
（5）即便度假村的营业的确受到了人口老龄化的影响，是否一定就得投资医院和养老院？医院和养老院是唯一的投资选项吗？是最好的投资选项吗？投资除了考虑潜在市场的扩大，需不需要考虑其他因素？例如成本效益。
写一写，练一练
