Day19 Over the past decade，the restaurant industry in the country of Spiessa has experienced unprecedented growth

The following appeared as part of an article in the travel section of a newspaper：

“Over the past decade，the restaurant industry in the country of Spiessa has experienced unprecedented growth.This surge can be expected to continue in the coming years，fueled by recent social changes：personal incomes are rising，more leisure time is available，single-person households are more common，and people have a greater interest in gourmet food，as evidenced by a proliferation of publications on the subject.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“Over the past decade，the restaurant industry in the country of Spiessa has experienced unprecedented growth.”“recent social changes：personal incomes are rising，more leisure time is available，single-person households are more common.”“a proliferation of publications on the subject”是事实，“This surge can be expected to continue in the coming years.”是结论，值得反驳吗？过去十年餐饮业得到了空前发展，将来一定也会继续繁荣发展吗？一个地区的人口能支持的餐馆数量是无限的吗？

（2）个人收入的增长是否一定会促进餐饮业发展？原文在它们之间建立起有效的因果关系了吗？有没有可能国民目前在餐饮方面的支出已经趋于稳定，不会随收入增长而再有显著增长？

（3）个人闲暇时间更多是否一定会促进餐饮业发展？你能罗列一到两种不同的可能吗？例如，有些人去餐馆吃饭是因为自己做饭较费事，耗时较长，更多的闲暇时间是否意味着这些人自己做饭的可能性升高？

（4）单身人士与餐饮业之间是否存在明确的因果关系？你能说说其他的可能性吗？例如，单身的人喜欢清净，所以不喜欢到热闹的餐厅吃饭而选择自己在家里做饭。文章有提到单身的人比结婚的人更倾向于去餐馆吃饭吗？

（5）市面上美食丛书更多，就意味着人们更加热衷于美食吗？人们更加热衷于美食就意味着餐饮业一定能得到发展吗？这中间的因果关系是否明确呢？

写一写，练一练