Day13 The Cumquat Cafe？began advertising on our local radio station this year

The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses：

“The Cumquat Cafébegan advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals.Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“The Cumquat Cafébegan advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals.”是事实，“Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.”是结论，值得反驳吗？原文的论述是由谁给出的呢？是由local radio station给出的。出于何种目的给出呢？目的是“sell advertising time”。

（2）咖啡厅的营业额增长，与做电台广告有必然的因果关系吗？有没有可能属于自然增长？即使有关，营业额的增长完全是因为做了电台广告吗？有没有可能电台广告其实只起到了一小部分作用？你能否罗列几个可能导致咖啡厅营业额增长的要素？例如：咖啡厅里提供的服务更满足顾客需要；咖啡厅采用降价策略。

（3）营业额与利润额是一回事吗？除了营业额外，利润额还会受到哪些要素的影响？例如成本。广告成本作为成本中的重大部分，是否可能起到相反的作用？

（4）即便咖啡厅的营业额和利润额真的因为电台广告同时上升了，这是否意味着电台宣传适合所有商业种类？你能列举一到两种可能不适合的商业种类吗？例如：对于服装

店，用声音无法很好地传达服饰的视觉效果。

（5）即便电台广告真的有效，它一定是最有效的方式吗？Cumquat Café同比去年所得出的增长数值放到行业内来看是最高的吗？有没有使用其他宣传方式的咖啡厅，可能生意得到了更大的改善呢？你能举出几个和电台广告相竞争的其他广告方式吗？例如：路牌广告，电视广告。

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