Day5 The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in manufacturing

The following appeared in a report presented for discussion at a meeting of the directors of a company that manufactures parts for heavy machinery：

“The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in manufacturing.These delays，in turn，are due in large part to poor planning in purchasing metals.Consider further that the manager of the department that handles purchasing of raw materials has an excellent background in general business，psychology，and sociology，but knows little about the properties of metals.The company should，therefore，move the purchasing manager to the sales department and bring in a scientist from the research division to be manager of the purchasing department.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in manufacturing.These delays，in turn，are due in large part to poor planning in purchasing metals.Consider further that the manager of the department that handles purchasing of raw materials has an excellent background in general business，psychology，and sociology，but knows little about the properties of metals.”是事实，“The company should，therefore，move the purchasing manager to the sales department and bring in a scientist from the research division to be manager of the purchasing department.”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）“The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays inmanufacturing.”中利润的下降与生产的延迟，因为是在同一个时间段发生，就可以简单地归纳为因果关系吗？因果关系一定成立吗？一定是唯一的原因吗？一定是最重要的原因吗？有没有可能是其他因素造成了利润的下降？例如销售量。

（3）原料采购安排不当主要责任在于现任采购部门的主管吗？是否存在这样的情况，国家对采购金属的政策进行了改制，全行业都处于一个适应状态？即使原因在于这位主管，一定代表他失职了吗？有没有可能公司改变了核心产品，步入陌生领域，要重新建立采购线，从而导致主管出现了不可避免的暂时性计划问题？

（4）具备金属专业知识的科学家就一定可以确保采购的顺利进行吗？要做好原料采购计划，除了原料知识外，是否还有其他应该考虑的要素？你能罗列出一到两个吗？例如：对运输环节的准确把握，与原料供应商建立良好联系。

（5）掌握一般商务、社会学、心理学知识的人就一定能做好销售工作吗？除了文中所提及的方面外，是否还有其他应该考虑的要素？你能罗列出一到两个吗？例如：独特的销售渠道，优秀的社交能力。

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