Abstract

The outbroke of financial crises around the world，brought great economic and social losses，and gave the human being profound lessons. The outbroke of the international financial crisis in 2008 cause great loss to the world’s major economies，and led to worldwide economic recession，European sovereign debt crisis had made the process of world economic recovery difficult and tortuous and the international market is facing uncertainty risks. The 12th Five－Year Plan Period is a critical period which china will change the mode of economic development，promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure，expand opening to the world. On the one hand，after 30 years of reforming and opening up to the outside world and 10 years over of accession to the WTO，China is still facing strategic development opportunities，Steadily push forward market－oriented interest rate reform and exchange rate formation mechanism reform，liberate the capital account controls gradually，opening up the domestic financial market to the world，in order to enhance the international competitiveness of China’s financial system fundamentally. On the other hand，The labor costs are rising gradually，The demographic dividend is vanishing，The competitive advantages of China’s low－end and cheap export commodities are declining gradually，domestic energy shortages and foreign energy dependence become serious，environment pollution and ecological damage become significant，China’s economic medium and long－term growth resistance caused by institutional and structural problems are highlighted，the gap of development levels and income levels between urban and rural areas and different regions have become too large，economic contradictions and social contradictions are intertwining，the risks of deep－seated which our national economy face are increasing. Therefore，based on the new historical background，study various economic and financial risks which China face current and future period of time from the perspective of history strategic development，monitoring and early－warning China’s overall and different regions，financial risks and put forward practical policy suggestions on how to prevent and mitigate domestic financial risks and protect China’s financial security，which have great theoretical significance and practical significance.

This book based on the post－financial crisis era situation and from the perspective of national economic security.

Firstly，this book has discriminated and defined the content of national financial security and regional financial security，financial security monitoring and early－warning，and get the conclusion that Financial Security means under the background of financial globalization，through strengthen the systemic construction of our own financial mechanism，make china have the ability to protect against the direct or indirect risk impacts，and make China’s financial system on the situation of continuing to run smoothly on the premise of maintaining financial sovereignty from infringement when facing external risk impacts. And in China，Regional Financial Security is closely linked to national financial security，when regional financial security itself has weak risk prevention capability，or face financial risks caused by direct or indirect external risk impacts from home and abroad，and being a threat to the national financial security，there exists regional financial security problems. And financial security monitoring and early warning exist differences and connections，which will be the basis of full study in this book.

Secondly，the development status of China’s financial industry and its main risks has been study through qualitative and quantitative analysis method from four major aspects of economic risks of finance，financial market risks，the risks of banking institutions，foreign debt risks. Meanwhile，combining internal and external causes，and from the two dimensions of exogenous financial risks china faced in the process of financial opening and endogenous financial risks china itself faced，the main influencing factors haves been Summarized analysis of national financial security and regional financial security，which will provide preliminary directly realistic basis of setting up the monitoring and early warning model of national and domestic regional financial security.

Thirdly，On the basis of study generality of the domestic and foreign experts indicator system and dynamic analysis of this paper，this book set up China’s national financial security monitoring indicator system from the two dimensions of financial security conditions and financial security capabilities，and measure the monitoring indicator weights and safety intervals by AHP method adjusted by Entropy method and Delphi method. Meanwhile，the national financial security degree has been monitored and analyzed quantitatively and comprehensively from 1992 to 2011 by Efficacy coefficient method and the linear－weighted summation method，and our national financial security degree has been evaluated dynamically and been interpreted from the causes，empirical studies show that： there present local fluctuations but rising overall development trend from 1992 to 2011，from moderate unsafe in 1992 （50. 2 scores） to low unsafe in 2001 （63. 5 scores），and to highly safe in 2011 （80. 4 scores） . Meanwhile China’s national financial security degree can be divided into two distinct phases of closed exploration （1992－2000） and accelerated development （2001－2011） . This book measure the correlation degree of national financial security conditions and capabilities by Grey correlation degree method，and the results show that the correlation degree of financial security conditions and financial security capabilities to national financial security show similar and both moderate to highly correlation. On the basis of decomposing the fluctuation and time trend of National Financial Security Index by H－P filter method，National financial security index scores （1992－2011） have been fitted dynamically through Modified exponential curve model.

Fourthly，on the basis of a detailed analysis of the mechanism of the internal logic of China’s national financial security early warning indicators selected，this book set up China’s national financial security early warning indicator system from the two dimensions of leading and immunity，and measure the early warning indicator weights and safety intervals by AHP method adjusted by Entropy method and Delphi method. Through selecting KLR signal analysis method which has better predictive accuracy in the international field，the national financial security warning instance and warning degree have been Calculated and analyzed dynamically from 1992 to 2011，and the result find that： China’s national financial security warning instance can be divided into two distinct phases of warning period （1992－2003） and non－warning period （2004－2011） by early warning degree values，warning period include severe insecurity （1993），Moderate insecurity （1992，1994－1996，1998－2001），light insecurity （1997，2002－2003） . This book has measured dynamically the correlation of the national financial security monitoring and the national financial security early warning by Granger Causality Test，and has econometric analyzed dynamically the correlation of Long－term cointegration and short－term fluctuations by Cointegration and Error Correction Model，empirical study find that national financial security monitoring is the cause of national financial security early warning when the lag phase is 5，there both exist long－term cointegration relationship，and the cointegration relationship equation has been measured. Meanwhile，the financial security warning degree has been annual forecasted during 2012－2013 by means of ARIMA，exponential smoothing model，Multiple linear and curvilinear regression analysis，and the study get the result that the warning degree score is 80. 9 in 2012，81. 1 in 2013，both in non warning status. Meanwhile，China’s financial security warning degree has been interval forecasted during 2012－2016 from three grades of high level，median level，and low level.

Fifthly，from the perspective of national economic security and under the background framework of national financial security，this book set up China’s regional financial security monitoring indicator system by means of decomposing national financial security monitoring indicators by each region. Putting forward quantitative monitoring and evaluation model of regional financial security degree from the perspective of national financial security. 31 provinces （Municipalities） in china are included in the study，and from the perspective of 20％ of the country’s top important province，eastern，central，western and northeastern region，six strategic areas，the influential degree of financial security of each region to the overall state have been Monitoring and evaluation analyzed from the financial security conditions，financial security capabilities and financial security degree respectively，and we concluded and analyzed the main reasons which cause the differentiation and get the conclusion that： The overall influential degree of top 7 provinces （Municipalities） to the overall state is 46. 1％ （2004－2011），it presents moderate concentration，also the financial security influential degree presents moderate oligopoly market structure of national top 20％ of the provinces （municipalities） to the overall state. And top 7 provinces concentrated 61. 2％ exogenous financial risks of China，36％ endogenous financial risk of China.

Sixthly，based on the above analysis，this book summarizes the effective experiences of western developed countries，and the lessons and enlightenments of previous financial crisis countries. Moreover，this book use the theory and law of government regulatory economics and bring forward the SLSS regulatory framework of national financial security，put forward the suggestions on how to enhance China’s financial security degree from possible risks of the overall financial system，the key areas of finance and the key areas of China.

Key words： National financial security Regional financial security Economic security Dynamic monitoring Trends warning