Abstract

China's Population Aging and The Risk of“Middle Incom Teip”begins with a discussion on the series of“developmental traps”experienced in human history, and it illustrates that the“middle income trap”is the predominant developmental trap currently encountered by many developing countries including China. It is vital to learn the lessons from the countries either succeeded or trapped in the middle income trap and to grasp the developmental opportunities in the meantime of population aging and thereafter. China's economy has maintained rapid growth ever since implementation of the reform and opening-up policy in 1978. To date, China is enrolling into the group of upper-middle income countries. Yet, China also faces difficulties in balancing and coordinating the socioeconomic development and making it sustainable. The risk of middle income trap is challenging China now as well.

To survive from the risk of middle income trap, it is most important to speed up the transition of economic development mode, dissolve concentrated social contradictions, promote a balanced rural and urban development in urbanization, and to cope with population aging by stressing things ought to be done or undone. As to prepare for population aging, first, it is vital to take advantage of the near-20-years“demographic bonus”at earlier stage of population aging, as resulted from the changing population age structure, to leap forward and succeed from the“middle income trap. ”Second, it is also important to prepare for the difficulties posed by the accumulative increases in dependence ratio during the late stages of population ageing in the long run, and to plan for a remedy strategy with surplus for deficit before handed. Third, the ageing of working-age population also calls attention, and it is necessary to enhance the accumulation of human capital in order to compensate the declining vitality of ageing labor force. Fourth, it is to comprehend new changes in demand and supply of labor market in the process of population aging, and to cope with increasing wage and declining investment scientifically. Fifth, it is necessary to solve the problem of low consumption of the old, since it is uneasy to transit the economy into a consumption-driven one.

Taking into consideration all these real questions, the general report and the seven special reports combine theory and empirical findings, and conduct analysis using first-handed survey data. At various levels, this book provides insightful decision-making options.