1 Thinking Framework and Research Methodology

European Concert, or the Congress System, is generally believed to have lasted for 100 years (1815-1914) between the end of Napoleonic Wars and the outbreak of the First World War. This is by far the longest and most successful concert of powers in the history of international relations, which ushered in “the Hundred Years’ Peace” in Europe. In the first Chapter of The Great Transition, Karl Polanyi examined the effect of a concert of (European) powers on “the Hundred Years’ Peace.” “The Hundred Years’ Peace” was a testimony to a concert of powers as an effective approach to global governance.[3]

The European Concert is now a classical case of global governance and is considered one of its origins.[4] It can also be seen as part of the inspirations for the European Union as we know it. One of the conclusions stemming from the European Concert is that a concert of powers is an effective means to establish peace (order) and prevent war. The European Union is a modern, advanced and sophisticated concert of powers.

The historical experience and theory of European Concert remain significant till this day, but for it to be applied to non-European regions, such as Asia, a new theory on the concert of powers is required. The German think tank PRIF/HSFK has laid out the theoretical framework in A 21st Century Concert of Powers: relevant countries (especially big countries) choose concert of powers as the solution to address “power transition,” the harshest and most urgent challenge in 21st century international relations, to prevent wars and achieve global peace, both long-term and stable, for the 21st century.[5] The author of this paper is one of the chief authors in PRIF/HSFK’s project on “a 21st Century Concert of Powers.” Based on the theoretical framework, this paper proposes the following argument: an Asian Concert is a smart and effective solution to the severe security challenges and security dilemmas that now face the Asian and Pacific region.

The European integration has lent inspiration to other regions around the world. In Asia there have been proposals for a similar regional integration. However, attempts to advance Asian integration, such as those embodied in the East Asian Community, have faced numerous obstacles and gained little ground. As the Japanese administration under Shinzo Abe pushes for Constitutional amendments, threatens to overthrow the post-WWII regional order and seeks a leading position in the Asia-Pacific region, the idea of an East Asian Community has become the ideal of the few, entertained by a minority such as the former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. As an emerging international power, China’s rise is incomplete and remains mostly in economic terms. And after decades of extensive and rapid development, the country’s economy is slowing down to a difficult stage of restructuring. The United States of America seeks to maintain its dominance, if not hegemony, in the Asia-Pacific region. Most of US allies and friends continue to follow its lead. However, in the face of “power transition,” a majority of them are engaged in “hedging.” To maintain its lead in a complex environment the US has to pay a tremendous cost, while its followers don’t exactly come with no conditions attached. Northeast Asia, in its broader sense (including the entirety of China and Russia), is not completely under the dominance of the United States. At the moment, the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific is a multi-polar balance of power, consisting of the US, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, India and at least a couple of regional organizations (SCO and ASEAN).

After the Cold War, a highly-integrated Congress System took shape in the Asia-Pacific region where countless international meetings have been held, from the APEC focusing on the economy to the Six-party talks addressing security issues. Some of these international meetings developed into a Congress System pioneered by ASEAN and some others coalesced into another Congress System led by the SCO. The US is deeply involved in the former but not in the latter, while China is present in almost all forums in the Asia-Pacific region. From 2009 through 2017, the Obama administration practiced a “Pivot to Asia” policy, which led to a Trans-Pacific System centering on the US (marked by the Trans-Pacific Partnership in terms of economy and a US alliance system that is increasingly multilateral). China happens to be absent from the Trans-Pacific system organized by the US. The TPP is reducing dependence on the Chinese market. In the bilateral engagement, China strives for a concert with the US in a “New Type of Major Power Relations,” however, compared to the China-US concert, the one between China and Japan is mired in a more difficult stalemate which may eventually culminate in strategic and long-term confrontation. The historical territorial dispute and geopolitical strife between China and Pakistan have been managed to a certain extent, global cooperation is on the rise (for instance: in areas such as climate change, BRICs cooperation and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), India scores major progress in relations with the US and meanwhile has been admitted in SCO.

This paper argues that the foundation for an Asian Concert, lacking initiative and deliberate planning as it is, promises to provide a new type of regional governance for the potentially chaotic and runaway multi-polar Asia, as long as initiative and deliberate planning are applied in such manners as to adjust it to the current reality (geopolitical landscape) and shape the future of the Asia-Pacific region. But whether this Asian Concert will emerge depends on the choices of the major powers within the region. The “Middle Powers” in the region might find it easier to opt for a concert of powers, and it is in their fundamental interest; major medium and smaller size countries in the region have grown increasingly dependent on regional security governance; members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have decided to upgrade the organization into an East Asian Community. Whether the USA will choose Asian Concert remains unclear; based on current and long-term reality, China’s choice for an Asian Concert is necessary, urgent and possible. Should China opt for an Asian Concert, it would become its new policy towards Asia (and the Pacific region). This significant transition will foster a virtuous cycle in global security governance.

The paper shall proceed to discuss some specific questions regarding the Asian Concert.