The Pattern of China-Russia Strategic Coordination: Formation, Features and Prospects

Liu Fenghua

Abstract: The China-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation, after 20 years, has developed a unique pattern of strategic coordination. The major issues in the bilateral relationship are to enhance strategic mutual trust, elevate the level of trade cooperation, and deal with the US properly. After years of exploration, China and Russia have found that an amiable relationship and a strategic partnership are in the best interests of both sides. The partnership has many characteristics:It is a strategy but targets no one; It is not ideologically driven, and develops extensively and intensively. Since the One Belt One League, the China-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation has entered a new stage of mutual development.

Keywords: strategic partnership of cooperation, model of strategic coordination, China-Russia relations

The year 2016 marks the 20th anniversary of the China-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation. In the two decades, China and Russia have been profoundly enhancing the new bilateral relationship, which makes great contributions to the development of the two sides, regional security and global stability. In commemoration of the significant diplomatic event, it is of academic and realistic significance to summarize the evolution of the China-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation in the past 20 years and evaluate the model of strategic coordination.

1．Achievements and Challenges in China-Russia Strategic Coordination in Past 20 Years

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, China and Russia established an amiable relationship based on the normalization of the China-Soviet Union relations, and elevated it to be a constructive partnership. After the end of the cold war, the world order was under a reconstruction: East Europe and East Asia faced a geopolitical transformation and the three-party relationship between China, Russia and the U.S. was out of balance. Under such circumstance, China and Russia, in April 1996, vowed to build a partnership of strategic collaboration of “equality, mutual confidence and mutual coordination for the twentyfirst century.” The declaration heralds a new stage for the China-Russia ties. Although the relationship has gone through good and bad times at different historical stages, it is generally developing to a good end.

In the past two decades, China and Russia, through the partnership of strategic coordination, has made prominent achievements in the following spheres.

First, political cooperation. Since 1996, a regular meeting mechanism between two countries' state leaders, government leaders and foreign ministers, a major component in the China-Russia partnership of strategic coordination, has been established successively, along with the Regular Meeting Committee Between Chinese Premier and Russian Prime Minister, the Committee on Humanities Cooperation and the China-Russia Energy Cooperation Committee. With these mechanisms, China and Russia have carried out fruitful negotiations, which have solidified their political friendship and mutual trust and enhanced cooperation in all fields. With the development of their political ties and mutual trust, especially when hegemony and unilateralism become prominent in international affairs, China and Russia signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001, which has established in the form of a legal document the long-term good-neighborliness and partnership of strategic coordination as a principle for the bilateral relations. Based on the experience and lessons both countries have learned from their long-standing relations, they have agreed on the most appropriate model of the bilateral ties: Good-neighborly and friendly partnership of strategic coordination. The closer bilateral ties have created positive conditions for both sides to deal with their long-standing border issues. In 2004, the last unresolved territorial issue between China and Russia was settled by the Complementary Agreement on the Eastern Section of the China-Russia Boundary. Based on the same stand and common interests, China and Russia oppose color revolutions in defense of the diversity of world civilizations and the autonomy of every country choosing their own path of development.

Second, diplomatic coordination. Since the establishment of the partnership of strategic coordination, China and Russia act in concert with each other in foreign affairs, which have become a major component of the partnership of strategic coordination. Such coordination takes place in global, regional, bilateral and multilateral perspectives, among which the most strategic is diplomatic coordination over global affairs, mainly including opposing polarization of the world order, committing to the establishment of a new global political and economic order, going against the US building Theater Missile Defense System and deploying weaponry in the outer space, opposing the US' unilateral moves, and protecting the UN's authority in dealing with internationalsecurity issues. Diplomatic coordination at the regional level includes founding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to boost the stability and development of the Central Asia, opposing the expansion of the US-led military and political alliance to China and Russia's neighbors, supporting each other to build an open and equal security framework for the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. At the bilateral and multilateral levels, China and Russia firmly support each other to protect the their own sovereignty and territorial integrity, work closely on North Korea nuclear crisis, Iran nuclear issue, Afghanistan, Syria and Ukrainian crisis, and conduct diplomatic cooperation in multilateral frameworks such as the UN, BRICS, G20 and APEC. Although the strategic collaboration between China and Russia partly serves to counter or refrain the US in some international affairs and it works, both sides have no intention to forge an anti-US alliance.

Three, military cooperation.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's military industry soon sank into straits because of a financial crisis. Meanwhile, the West issued an arms embargo on China. Once initiated, the China-Russia cooperation on military technology has developed rapidly. The partnership of strategic coordination has given a new boost to the military cooperation. From 1990s to 2005, China was the biggest importer of Russian weaponry, bringing in a large amount of military aircrafts, air defense weapons and naval equipment, in which the most prominent are Su-27 and Su-30 fighters, S-300 PMU1 surface-toair missile system, Tor missile system, Project 956 Sarych destroyers and Kiloclass diesel-electric submarines. From 2006 to 2013, since China's demand for Russia's general military technologies decreased, the size of military cooperation shrank despite the previously signed contracts of air defense systems, aircraft engines and others, but China remained a major importer of Russia's military weapons and technologies. A turning point took place in the fall of 2014, when China and Russia signed a contract that made China the first foreign buyer of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air defense system, and also the largest ever military deal between China and Russia, which is worth USD 3 billion. The deal pushed the two countries' military cooperation to a new pinnacle. In November 2015, China signed a USD 2 billion worth contract of purchasing 24 Su-35 fighters from Russia. China is also the first importer of this type of fighters. S-400 antiaircraft guided missile system and Su-35 represent Russia's most advanced conventional weapons, which can greatly enhance the Chinese army's selfdefense capabilities and even produce positive impact on the military balance in Asia. Thus, the military cooperation between China and Russia is of great strategic significance, which has become one of the pillars in the China-Russia partnership of strategic coordination.

Four, energy cooperation. A long-term strategic relationship in energy has become a major component of the China-Russia partnership of strategic coordination. China and Russia, respectively as one of the world's largest energy importers and exporters, have a solid foundation for cooperation in oil and natural gas due to their territorial proximity. In 2011, the China-Russia oil pipeline came into operation, which marks the establishment of China-Russia partnership of oil cooperation. For China, through this pipeline, it can get a reliable and stable supply of crude oil from Russia, which will diversify China's sources of crude oil and reduce the dependence on and risks from maritime crude oil transportation. In 2015, China's import amount of crude oil from Russia energy companies increases to 42.32 million tons. Russia, cranking it up a notch, becomes China's second largest supplier of crude oil. The cooperation between China and Russia energy companies in terms of exploiting oil and gas fields, oil refining and chemical engineering grows increasingly and has formed an integrated chain that combines both the upstream and downstream industries. Since the Purchase and Sale Agreement for the Russian gas supply via the eastern route in 2014 and the China-Russia West Route natural gas pipeline project in 2015, both countries initiated the natural gas pipelines project. Meanwhile, China and Russia have been increasingly strengthening their cooperation in nuclear energy, electricity and coals.

Fifth, business and trade cooperation. The trade volume between China and Russia has increased from USD 6.84 billion in 1996 to USD 95.28 billion in 2014, with an average growth rate of 71.8% in 18 years. But due to the decline of energy price in the international market and the economic sanctions by the West against Russia, the trade volume between China and Russia in 2015 slipped to USD 69 billion. But the number of commodities still increases, and China's proportion in Russia's export went up to 12%. From 2011 to 2015, China remains Russia's largest trading partner, and Russia is among China's top 10 trading partners. The proportion of China's export of mechanical and electrical products into Russia has greatly increased, and the composition of China-Russia trade has also improved. Compared to trade, the investment cooperation between China and Russia is a bit backward, but China has become Russia's fourth largest investment source. Both sides are putting more efforts in enhancing the cooperation in aeronautics, hi-tech and infrastructure. Generally speaking, the bussiness and trade cooperation between China and Russia has grown strategic significance.

In the past 20 years, the partnership of strategic coordination between China and Russia has also had some issues, which can be summarized into three aspects.

First, strategic mutual trust. There is no doubt that 20 years of strategic coordination has greatly enhanced both countries' mutual trust, but it has to be admitted that the mutual trust still needs to be improved. In Russia, anti-China groups include pro-West cliques, extreme nationalists, radical supporters of Eurasianism and even some government officials in Russia's Far East. Although these anti-China groups are unable to have a leverage on Russia's China policy, the various China threat theories they advocate, such as “taking back the lost territories from China”, “Chinese immigrants are taking over Russia”, “China is exploiting Russia's natural resources”, and “China and Russia are geopolitical enemies” keep gaining traction in Russia. Since China and Russia are changing position in the international power structure, Russia's concern about China's rise has become a major psychological barrier that might hinder the China-Russia relations. Russia is worried about whether China would adopt a hardliner policy against Russia after China's rise, whether the power imbalance between China and Russia would turn Russia into China's sidekick, and whether China would become Russia's strategic rival in the future. In January, 2014, Russia's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee issued Strategy of the 21st Century(Version for discussion),in which it says China's rise and the aftermath of forcing neighbors to become its vassals is a “threat to Russia's security in the future.” Some Russian experts argue that China's Belt and Road initiative is actually China's expansion to Central Asia and Russia. China and Russia's cooperation in the Far East and Siberia lags behind, and an important reason is that Russia is still wary of China. Meanwhile, some Chinese still remember the bitter repression by Czarist Russia and the imperialist Soviet Union, and do not think the partnership of strategic collaboration will have a promising future. Thus, China and Russia should continue building more trust and reducing skepticism. Only by enhancing strategic mutual trust can the partnership of strategic coordination ensure a longterm healthy development.

Second, China and Russia should level up their trade. By the standard of strategic coordination, the bilateral trade lags behind their political cooperation for a long time, and has not yet laid a solid economic foundation for the partnership of strategic coordination. From a technical perspective, the bilateral trade structure in terms of commodities needs to be improved: Besides mechanical and electrical products, textile and light industrial products play a major part in China's export to Russia; While Russia's export to China mainly features resource-intensive products such as crude oil, natural gas and iron, which are mainly low value-added goods. In 2015, the plummeting bilateral trade volume shows that both countries are too dependent on oil prices, which proves the necessity to improve the structure of commodities. In 2015, China's investment in Russia only amounts to USD 3.37 billion. Russia's investment in China is even less. The small size of mutual investment gives little boost to the bilateral trade, so there is a great potential to tap into. Both countries have seen some progress in labor service, project contracting and technologies, the level is low. China and Russia should put into practice the consensus of opening up market entry, boosting trade and bringing convenience to investment, creating favorable conditions for the development of the bilateral trade.

Last, the US' influence in the China-Russia relations, which is the most significant external factor in the bilateral ties.The US has had a double-layered impact on the China-US partnership of strategic collaboration: On one hand,it propels and strengthens the partnership, such as the US' containment policy enhances the strategic cooperation between China and Russia; on the other, it drives a wedge between China and Russia by roping in one side against the other to weaken the partnership. After the September 11 attacks, the US tried to mend ties with Russia for antiterrorism. Meanwhile, the China-Russia partnership became slack. However after the orange revolution in Ukraine broke out in 2004, China and Russia racked up their strategic cooperation on many issues including resisting color revolutions. Since the Ukraine crisis, the US has adopted a containment strategy against China and Russia, which ends up making the partnership much stronger. Although the partnership has grown much solid, both countries have to seriously take the US into consideration.

2．The Characteristics of the China-Russia Strategic Coordination

China and Russia established the partnership of strategic collaboration in 1996, and in 2001, the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation confirms both countries should seek a partnership of strategic coordination that commits to long-term friendliness and good-neighborliness, equality and mutual trust. Ten years later, both countries pledged to establish a comprehensive partnership of strategic collaboration with equality, trust, mutual support, common prosperity and friendliness through generations. China and Russia's diplomatic cooperation has proven that strategic coordination has become a basic pattern for the China-Russia relations.

According to the diplomatic documents released by both countries and their practice in the strategic coordination, I have figured out a definition for the pattern of strategic collaboration, which is a bilateral cooperation mechanism that after the Cold War, a country, on the premise of keeping its independence in terms of external affairs, adopts the same foreign policy with another country for some specific purposes on the basis of common interests. The nature of the pattern is friendly cooperation, thus, the coalition won't upgrade to be an alliance, although both countries emphasize the persistence and comprehensiveness of the cooperation. So far, in China's partnership networks, such pattern is exclusive to Russia, which is given a priority in terms of strategic significance.

The strategic coordination between China and Russia has the following characteristics.

First, the strategic significance of the collaboration pattern mainly shows in some key areas, and usually requires a comprehensive perspective and longterm cooperation. The Joint Sino-Russian declaration in 1996 calls on both sides to cooperate on building a new international political and economic order, defending the strategic stability, and improving the regional security and cooperation of the Asia-Pacific region. These primary areas of cooperation show both countries' common concern about their life and death as well as the overall environment of development. Thus, common interests in terms of strategic security, strategic stability and multi-polarization are the key areas of collaboration since the beginning of the partnership. In 2001, the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation makes the strategic coordination in these fields a long-term business.

Second, the partnership does not target a third party. It only intends to conduct friendly cooperation instead of making an alliance against other countries. Both countries have no intention to make an alliance so that they could avoid inviting criticism of challenging the established power. There is no doubt that in some specific areas, including strategic security, strategic stability and global multipolarization, China and Russia's efforts may have targets, but they are directed to issues, not countries. For example, if a re-militarized Japan continues to challenge the order in East Asia that took shape after World War II and impose threat to China and Russia's national security, this issue will become a target of the China-Russia partnership of strategic coordination. It does not contradict the partnership's commitment of not targeting a third party. In the above fields, the China-Russia partnership of strategic coordination is applied through diplomatic channels.

Three, the partnership is not ideologically driven. This is one of the characteristics of the partnership, and also a lesson both sides have drawn from the history of China-Soviet Union relations. Thus, both sides decided to lay this principle down. China and the Soviet Union had discrepancies over a number of issues including Non-Stalinization, domestic and foreign policies and thoughts and ideas about the international communist campaigns, which finally resulted in the breakup of the two ruling communist parties and the deterioration of the bilateral relationship. In order to avoid recommitting the same error, China and Russia decided to follow the basic principles of international relations and keep ideologies away from their relations, based on which both sides have established the partnership of strategic coordination. Without the ideological elements, in the partnership, both sides can respect the freedom of each other's people to choose their social systems, development paths and patterns, point no fingers at each other over their domestic issues, jointly safeguard the international principle that every country can independently and autonomously choose their social systems, development paths and patterns.

Fourth, the partnership goes deeper and broader. With the strategic security cooperation, China and Russia's strategic coordination on security has influenced many other fields such as politics, trade, military security and technology, energy, humanities, technology, agriculture and astronautics, which are increasingly align with the comprehensive partnership of strategic coordination. Meanwhile, cooperation in almost every field is going deeper, especially foreign affairs, politics, military technology and energy, all of which have reached the strategic level, and trade cooperation has also developed a tinge of strategic significance.

The partnership of strategic coordination results from the experiences and lessons China and Russia have drawn from their long relationship, which is of both historical and practical significance. Besides keeping the ideology away from the partnership, both countries have also pledged to remain independent, not to make an alliance, not to go against or target a third country, respect each other on an equal basis, keep a friendly and good-neighbored attitude to each other, and balance each other's interests. China and Russia were allied for three times in history, respectively in 1896, 1945 and 1950, all of which fell apart due to different reasons eventually. From 1960s to 1980s, China and the former Soviet Union were stranded by a military and political confrontation, which cost both sides tremendously. History has shown more than one time that China and Russia can only benefit from a harmonious relationship and confrontations will only harm both sides. Peaceful coexistence is the best choice for both the Chinese and the Russians who live in proximity for generations.

In the past 20 years, the partnership of strategic cooperation between China and Russia has laid a solid foundation for building a friendly and goodneighbored relationship, which makes many friendly people in China and Russia look forward to an alliance, which, however, is a growing concern in the Western world. The partnership is actually a loosely aligned and consultative cooperative system, which lacks restrictions. The most intense mechanism of strategic collaboration is alliance, such as the NATO, which has clear provisions and regulations in terms of its collective defense mechanism, purview of power, structure, decision-making mechanism, integrated deployment of military power, military construction and collective action. The power of cohesion and execution in the NATO is very strong due to the rigid regulations set by the alliance treaty and the soft power such as sense of identity and ideology. In contrast, the China-Russia partnership of strategic cooperation does not have a lot of rigid regulations in terms of the international law, agenda-setting and collective action, and both countries even have different understandings about common interests and goals. In light of this, especially considering China and Russia face strategic pressures from the eastern and western sides and within unstable elements are brewing, there is a voice in both countries calling for an alliance between China and Russia. But the security threats against China and Russia are not serious enough that neither side can deal with alone. Actually, the international situation is getting better for China and Russia. China and Russia's strategic purpose is to realize their own modernization instead of overhauling the current international order. Thus, forming an alliance is not a necessary option for China and Russia. In other words, the partnership of strategic coordination can suffice the needs of both countries, and what the partnership really needs is to improve the performance of the strategic coordination.

3．China and Russia's Cooperation in Belt and Road

Since the Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the “Silk Road Economic Belt”in 2013, China and Russia jointly building the Economic Belt is an important task in the bilateral relations. After honest and frank dialogues with China, Russia has dropped its skepticism about the proposal and started to integrate the Economic Belt proposal with its Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). In 2015, China and Russia issued a joint declaration to integrate the Silk Road Economic Road with the EEU framework. This is an official announcement of the “One Belt, One Union” cooperation, which intends to enhance regional economic integration. After this, China and Russia started to discuss how to make the Shanghai Cooperation Organization a platform for the project. It needs to be noted that the “One Belt, One Union”involves many participants from the Silk Road Economic Belt and the five members of the EEU, which has extended the China-Russia cooperation. This paper intends to analyze the integration project by placing China and Russia as the respective leaders of their own initiative and framework, which makes them play leading roles in the “One Belt, One Union” project.

The “One Belt, One Union” project has great practical significance for both China and Russia. By integrating with Russia's EEU to jointly develop the “Silk Road Economic Belt, ” China can export capital, technologies and commodities to the Commonwealth of the Independent States, enlarge foreign trade, enhance China's cooperation with Central Asian countries and defend the stability and security of Xinjiang by helping them with infrastructure constructions and economic social development, and improve the infrastructure and industrial framework along the Economic Belt so that a series of transportation hubs and trade and logistics centers could be built to boost the opening-up of these regions. As for Russia, the “One Belt, One Union” project can let Russia draw in China's capital and technologies to develop the economy of Siberia and the Far East, profit from cross-Russia transportation, accelerate the trade cooperationwith the Asia-Pacific region to make up for the loss incurred by the West's economic sanctions, improve the EEU's integration by improving the infrastructures through cooperating with China economically.

“One Belt One Union” is a new opportunity for China and Russia to elevate their partnership of strategic coordination to a new level. Both sides can also adopt this new measure to take advantage of the partnership. Currently, the partnership of strategic coordination is already at a high level, and it still needs to create new fields and ways of cooperation to gain new momentum of growth. Before the initiation of the “One Belt One Union” project, trade and energy cooperation is a major component of the China-Russia good-neighborliness and friendly coordination. Now, the partnership that features the beginning of the project and the enlargement of the China-Russia regional cooperation has developed from diplomatic coordination to mutual growth. The strategic significance lies in the expansion of the strategic coordination from Central Asia to the Commonwealth of the Independent States, which can improve the trade connections between East Asia, the Commonwealth of the Independent States and the European Union. Meanwhile, the China-Russia security cooperation has also expanded from Central Asia to the Commonwealth of the independent States that are along the Silk Road Economic Belt, since security and stability along the route is essential to the “One Belt, One Union” project. In the project, crossregional infrastructures and trade cooperation are conducive to China and Russia developing a sense of belonging to the same community of shared interests, which can strengthen both countries' awareness of the strategic coordination. The project offers the world a pattern of cooperation that can realize mutual benefits and avoid conflicts caused by the geopolitically expansionist regional economic integration. Countries like Ukraine and some other Asia-Pacific countries which have already promoted an exclusive regional integration process could learn from this partnership.

The implementation of the “One Belt, One Union” requires a common strategic plan and a gradual and steady advancement of joint programs especially at the start of the project. While planning, China and Russia should consider coordinating and integrating their own national development strategies with each other as well as the arrangement of industries along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the EEU should reach common agreements on building free trade zones and integrate the roadmaps of the “One Belt, One Union” project. While performing, China and Russia should discuss and figure out a series of economically feasible programs and carry them out systematically to profit from the achievements in a win-win situation so that they can further this cooperation into other fields. Due to multiple reasons, China and Russia, and the SCO and the EEU may not reach a consensus on some tasks such as building a free trade zone, but it won't impede both sides to implement the joint programs in line with the principle of win-win cooperation, and seek for a broader agreement on cooperation in the future.

The priority fields the “One Belt, One Union” is committed to include:1) Infrastructures and interconnectivity – they include bilateral and regional railways, highways, oil and gas pipelines, air facilities, telecommunications and electricity networks; 2) Financial cooperation – the Silk Road Fund and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank will provide financial support for programs regarding infrastructure construction, resource development and industrial cooperation along the “One Belt and One Union”, and create favorable conditions for Chinese companies to acquire more shares in target markets. Settlement in local currency should be broadened to enhance the internationalization of yuan and bilateral trade. Setting yuan as the currency of settlement has greatly boosted the oil trade between China and Russia. The range of settlement in local currency can be expanded to other bulk commodity trade, and the financial cooperation between China and Russia, including the exchange of currencies should provide due guarantees; 3) Industrial cooperation– China will ramp up the construction of industrial parks along the Economic Belt, arranging them properly and making them complimentary rather than competitive to each other to help Chinese companies enlarge their production in foreign markets. Meanwhile, China will advance its cooperation with Russia in the “One Belt, One Union” project in terms of energy, telecommunications, agriculture and technologies. The cooperation in these fields will efficiently integrate China's capital and technologies with the EUU's energy and resources, which will produce tremendous benefits for both sides. Besides, in order to create a peaceful and safe environment for the project, both countries should build friendly cooperation to avoid regional turbulence, eliminate terrorist threats, resolve the concerns about and resistance of China's investment in some Commonwealth of Independent States members and residents along the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Opportunities always coexist with challenges, and the “One Belt, One Union”project is not an exception. The problems and challenges it faces include: 1) Russia has a very deep-seated geopolitical mindset, and it doesn't want to invite external forces into its range of influence – it is worried that China's growing economic influence in the Central Asia-included Commonwealth of Independent States will one day turn into a political clout; 2) Russia is concerned about China using the transportation construction under the framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt to develop its influence, so it might secretly oppose China building infrastructures and connectivity with other countries; 3) Russia is worried that the “one belt” might compete with the “one union” and reduce Russia's influence in Central Asia; 4) The renovation of the Eurasian transportation line that passes through Kazakhstan might marginalize Russia's Serbian railways and impede its plan to reinvigorate the Far East. It needs to be noted that Russia's purpose of building the EEU is to establish a big common market, while China's Silk Road Economic Belt is to focus on the cooperation of economy and infrastructures instead of expanding a range of influence, and it is always to participants. Since the level of economic cooperation in the EEU is a lot higher than that on the Economic Belt, China and Russia should coordinate with each other in Central Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States to avoid competition and focus on cooperation. Given the current antagonism between Russia and the West, developing the “One Belt, One Union” is not only a way to make more profits, but also a choice of following the trend. Although there are a lot of problems, we should look forward to the prospect of the project, in which China and Russia can seize the opportunities and make most of the strategic coordination and elevate it to a new level.