更新时间：2020-04-29 11:14:38
封面
版权信息
About the Authors
Preface
Acknowledgments
Test Your Judgment
Answers to Judgment Quiz
PART 1 Introduction to Project Decision Analysis
CHAPTER 1 Project Decision Analysis: What Is It?
CHAPTER 2 “Gut Feel” vs. Decision Analysis: Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making
CHAPTER 3 Understanding the Decision Analysis Process
CHAPTER 4 What Is Rational Choice? A Brief Introduction to Decision Theory
CHAPTER 5 Creativity in Project Management
CHAPTER 6 Group Judgment and Decisions
CHAPTER 7 Are You Allowed to Make a Decision? Or the “Frustrated Developer’s Syndrome”
PART 2 Decision-Framing
CHAPTER 8 Identifying Problems and Assessing Situations
CHAPTER 9 Defining Project Objectives
CHAPTER 10 Generating Alternatives and Identifying Risks
PART 3 Modeling the Situation
CHAPTER 11 The Psychology and Politics of Estimating
CHAPTER 12 Project Valuation Models
CHAPTER 13 Estimating Probabilities
PART 4 Quantitative Analysis
CHAPTER 14 Choosing what Is Most Important: Sensitivity Analysis and Correlations
CHAPTER 15 Decision Trees and the Value of New Information
CHAPTER 16 What Is Project Risk? or PERT and Monte Carlo
CHAPTER 17 “A Series of Unfortunate Events ” or Event Chain Methodology
CHAPTER 18 The Art of Decision Analysis Reporting
CHAPTER 19 Making a Choice with Multiple Objectives
PART 5 Implementation Monitoring and Reviews
CHAPTER 20 Adaptive Project Management
CHAPTER 21 Did You Make the Right Choice? Reviewing Project Decisions
CONCLUSION Does Decision Analysis Provide a Solution?
APPENDIX A Risk and Decision Analysis Software
APPENDIX B Heuristics and Biases in Project Management
APPENDIX C Risk Templates
APPENDIX D Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methodologies
Glossary
Future Reading
References
Index
